Draft Analysis: Dynasty Receiver Prospects
The pre-draft process is dark and full of terrors, but through that darkness emerges an exciting jumble of #hawttaeks, half-truths, and quality NFL prospects. Despite the excitement the months before the draft bring, wading through all of the craziness to find the useful bits of fantasy football information can be daunting. With that in mind, here is a simplified look at some of the pass catchers who will help shape Dynasty drafts and standard fantasy football drafts alike this summer.
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Who is the best?
Unlike the running back class, which has a very clear top dog, there is more debate atop of the wide receiver board, with Ole Miss’ Laquon Treadwell, Baylor’s Corey Coleman and TCU’s Josh Doctson all garnering votes as the best pass catcher. I fall on the Doctson side of the debate because his most impressive skill is one which should immediately translate to NFL success and offers the biggest long-term floor and ceiling combination.
Doctson is a solid overall athlete with underrated route-running skills, but his most impressive trait is his ability in contested situations. He matches solid height and arm measurables with an outstanding vertical leap, elite ball skills and easily the best body control in the class to consistently win when the ball is in the air. His comfort level and the way he appears to hang and glide through the air reminds of Lynn Swann highlights, and he has on plenty of occasions flashed the ability to make circus grabs. Although he is not a blazer, he does appear to have an extra gear to gain late separation, and his contested ability means he has a chance on every target.
His skill in contested situations would be enough to make him interesting, but Doctson also shows the ability to work in the short and intermediate areas. He is a fluid athlete with solid sink in and burst out of breaks, he uses his body well on slants and routes breaking back towards the quarterback, and he is exceptional against zone. Doctson needs to add some weight and become more consistent against press and after the catch, but those are nitpicky slights. With a solid floor and high ceiling, Doctson is the best receiver in this class, and I would feel comfortable selecting him as high as No. 1 overall in Dynasty rookie drafts.
Who is the most controversial?
Unlike the best argument, there is little doubt about the most controversial receiver prospect. The top receiver on some boards, there are others who think Ole Miss’ Laquon Treadwell barely cracks the top five. While I have him near the bottom of my top tier, I still see Treadwell as clearly worthy of a first-round pick both in the real draft and Dynasty rookie drafts.
Treadwell does not run fast. That is not a surprise to anyone who watched him on tape, but it seems to be a point of contention in his evaluation. Knocking him for his long speed, however, seems to be miscasting who he will be at the next level. A physical player at the line and throughout the route, Treadwell is able to create separation even against better athletes because of his technique, strength, and body positioning. He also has strong hands and is able to win at the catch point. That physicality is not limited to his routes, either. He is an underrated runner after the catch who has the ability to break tackles and make the first defender miss. He can turn underneath catches into chunk plays, and that skill can be invaluable on third downs.
I do worry about fantasy upside, which is why I would not take him ahead of Doctson, Corey Coleman, or Michael Tomas in rookie drafts, but that does not mean he is a bad prospect. He is a solid possession receiver with ability after the catch and red-zone upside. That is valuable, and it makes him worth a first-round Dynasty pick despite his athletic limitations.
Who has the most upside?
There are always a lot of upside receivers available, but the easy answer is Baylor’s Corey Coleman, who is the most electric deep threat in this class. An absolute burner who is a lightning bolt off the line and untroubled by press coverage, Coleman routinely ran clean past corners in college, and he has the deep tracking skills, body control and leaping ability to make it count when he gets open deep. He is also excellent in the open field, with the stop-start quickness and punt-return skills to make people miss and the speed to take it to the house. His drop rate is a concern, but drops are not as important as the ability to make plays on off-frame passes. Coleman has that ability, and that should serve him well in contested situations and along the sideline.
The question surrounding Coleman is his ability to transition from a go, screen, slant, hitch player in college to a more rounded route runner. He certainly has the physical tools to become an extremely difficult cover on any route, but it is not a given he will develop into the next Antonio Brown. We have seen Baylor receivers in the past struggle when thrust into more “traditional” offenses, with Kendall Wright’s experience under Ken Whisenhunt in Tennessee as a prime example. Wright is not the deep threat Coleman is, but he is an explosive athlete underneath who was able to create separation with “sandlot” routes. When asked to run more precision and timing routes, he struggled and, ultimately, sulked.
That is not to say Coleman will follow the same path, it is just a cautionary tale of projecting physical traits into route-running skill. That said, even if he never develops past where he is right now, Coleman is still one of the best receivers in the class and a top fantasy option. He will bring invaluable field-stretching and after-the-catch elements to wherever he lands, making him my second-favorite prospect.
Ohio State’s Braxton Miller is another interesting physical talent who has a lot to learn as a receiver. A quarterback for most of his time in Columbus, Miller was converted to a full-time receiver last year. While he is lightning quick and flashed impressive ability to create separation in one-on-ones at the Senior Bowl, a lot of times that separation comes from backyard-football-esque routes which will not stand in a timing-based offense. He is explosive after the catch, however, and has the deep speed to be a nuisance down the seams out of the slot. He is also a natural pass catcher who did not look uncomfortable in his first year at receiver. He may be nothing more than a gadget player as he develops, but there is certainly upside. Florida’s Demarcus Robinson and Clemson’s Charone Peake also deserve a mention here.
Who has the highest floor?
It feels cliché to tab a slot receiver as the best floor prospect, but Oklahoma’s Sterling Shepard is not a traditional “slot prospect,” so I am counting it. With a quick first step, precise routes, a good feel against zone and great hands, Shepard should be able to step right in as a difference maker from the slot, but his talents do not stop there. Despite his sub-six-foot and sub-200-pound frame, Shepard has the ball skills, body control, and explosiveness to corral off-target throws and compete in contested situations, and he has good enough speed and ability against press to take snaps outside.
The most glaring weakness from Shepard’s tape was his ability after the catch. I went in assuming he would be strong in the open field because of his physical profile, but his suddenness, lateral agility and ability to make people miss with the ball in his hands was extremely disappointing. Still, that should not stop him from being a catch machine in the correct offense, and his underrated ability downfield should keep him in the big-play discussion. Shepard is clearly a first-round Dynasty pick.
Colorado State’s Rashard Higgins does not have anywhere close to the upside of Shepard, but he is a very safe floor player. Another great route-runner with pretty good hands, Higgins should continue to create separation underneath at the next level. Unfortunately, he is a very limited athlete who is not going to be much use in the intermediate and deep windows, and that lack of explosiveness will limit his fantasy appeal.
Who is the most underrated?
Ohio State’s Michael Thomas is generally a well-regarded prospect, but he is rarely mentioned among the top three of Doctson, Coleman, and Treadwell. I see that as a big mistake, and I think there is an argument to be made that Thomas is the second-best receiver in this class despite some limited measurables.
The most impressive aspect of Thomas’ game is his ability at the break point. Despite his 6-foot-3, 212-pound frame, Thomas is able to sink and make quick cuts as well as any receiver in this class and accelerates well out of the break. He also flashes advanced moves at the top of the stem, using head fakes, jab steps, and deception to get the cornerback going the wrong way before exploding out. That ability also makes him a dangerous threat on double moves, which he used to badly burn Virginia Tech’s top corner prospect Kendall Fuller early in the season. He flashes similar deception on posts and straight go routes, and those moves matched with his impressive acceleration off the line make him a much more dangerous deep threat than his 4.57 forty suggests.
In addition to his ability as a route-runner, Thomas possesses excellent hands and knows how to use his body to shield defenders. He is also good after the catch both breaking tackles and making people miss. In short, he is the perfect possession-plus receiver who can turn short passes into chunk plays and also contribute downfield. I am as high on Thomas as anyone out there, and I would love to grab him at the back of the first round in rookie drafts, where he is currently available according to Dynasty League Football mocks.
Once underrated in fantasy and perhaps still in NFL circles, Rutgers’ Leonte Carroo has actually climbed ahead of Thomas in the aforementioned mocks. I would not make that pick, but I have no issue with him being taken ahead of Derrick Henry, Sterling Shepard, and Kenneth Dixon. A physical player with strong hands, great ball skills and some ability vertically, Carroo is a good bet to make noise at the next level.
An actually underrated player is Malcolm Mitchell, who quietly accounted for 36 percent of Georgia’s passing yards and touchdowns last season after finally regaining full health following a 2013 ACL tear. A polished route runner who understands leverage and is quick off the line and out of his breaks, he also has the speed to be a threat vertically. If his health cooperates, he should be a steal in the third round of rookie drafts.
