The 2016 NFL draft’s quarterback class is not particularly impressive but it may be the most fascinating group of passers we’ve had in a decade. We’re ranking the top prospects, grading them on attributes that they’ll need to succeed in the NFL: Accuracy, arm strength, pocket presence, football IQ and athleticism. The evaluation is based solely on film study. Statistics and team success were not factored in. Let’s get to the rankings…

Jared Goff may not be a once-in-a-generation quarterback prospect but he’s the closest thing to a sure bet we have in a rather weak draft class. Don’t be scared off by Cal’s “Bear Raid” offense, an offshoot of the offense Mike Leach used at Texas Tech to shatter all kinds of Big 12 passing records. It’s the kind of offense NFL coaches say is causing a quarterback crisis, but Marcus Mariota’s successful rookie season should have killed the notion that a spread quarterback in college cannot make the transition to the pros. Just because a college quarterback didn’t play in a pro-style system, does not mean he can’t do it.

Besides, Cal’s offense wasn’t a pure college spread attack. There were plenty of NFL concepts sprinkled in there. And Goff looked like a natural doing the things the best NFL quarterbacks can be seen doing on Sundays: Reading defenses, subtly navigating the pocket, going through progressions and sniffing out blitzes pre-snap.

Goff’s poise and movement in the pocket is his best attribute. He just does not get rattled, no matter how many bodies are around him:

That kind of composure is rare for young quarterbacks. There are established NFL passers who aren’t as cool as Goff is in the pocket, including Russell Wilson and Andy Dalton. Without focusing on what’s around him, Goff can keep his eyes downfield and get through his progressions:

Goff isn’t without concerns. His arm is good enough for the NFL, but he will not be able to operate in a downfield passing game. His deep ball seems to die in mid air, leading to poorly underthrown passes.

And his accuracy is not as good as his numbers suggest. Goff completed 64.5% of his passes in 2015, but about half of his attempts were within five yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s at his least accurate when throwing to his right due to awkward lower body mechanics:

A good coach will clean up that footwork and have a very good quarterback on his hands. If Goff can continue to develop mentally, he has the tools to be a fringe top-10 quarterback some day.

NFL comparison: Ryan Tannehill with less athleticism

I like Christian Hackenberg more than most do, but his placement on the list says more about this QB class than it does about Hackenberg’s ability. I actually have him graded as a mid-to-late first-round pick, which, in most other years, wouldn’t put him in the No. 2 spot.

Hackenberg is the kind of prospect you have to watch in order to get on board with him as a first-rounder. Box scores do not do his game justice. If you take the time to study his game, you’ll see a passer who is comfortable going through progressions in the pocket, which is rare for passers his age. He clearly understands what the defense is trying to do and how to exploit it. And he’s got an NFL level arm. Is he inaccurate at times due to lazy and inconsistent mechanics? Yes, but NFL coaches should be able to clean that up in an offseason or two.

Let’s take a look at two plays that show why I like Hackenberg as a prospect. To fully appreciate this touchdown pass against Michigan State, we have to go back earlier in the game. The Spartans brought a complex blitz that absolutely froze Hackenberg in the pocket:

Michigan State tried to run that same blitz again later in the game, but you’re not going to fool a quarterback as smart as Hackenberg twice. He recognizes it before the snap, changes his protection to pick it up and throws an easy touchdown:

The next example shows off Hackenberg’s pocket poise and ability to read coverages. The pocket is a mess, but Hackenberg slides through the muck, reading the defense the entire time. He knows his receiver is open down the sideline and makes the throw without having to look:

Give him time to clean up the mechanics and Hackenberg could end up as the best quarterback to emerge from this draft.

NFL comparison: Eli Manning

Meet the most difficult evaluation in this year’s draft. North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz is either the most pro-ready guy in this class, or he should sit for a year and learn behind a veteran. The analysts are split. I lean more toward the latter. Wentz may have played in a pro-style offense in college, but he hasn’t developed the tools necessary to succeed at the pro level just yet. He has the physical tools for sure, but the rest of his game will take some time to come around.

Unlike Goff and Hackenberg, Wentz isn’t entirely comfortable in a tight pocket. When his first option wasn’t open, Wentz started to get antsy. Rather than looking for a secondary receiver, his first instinct was to get out of the pocket:

Young, athletic quarterbacks tend to lean on their running ability as a crutch and he is no different.

Wentz’s athleticism may allow him to start from day one if a team is willing to build its run game around him. He’s a physical runner who can make defensive backs miss in the open field. He’s not quite Cam Newton, but the Bison’s run game was built around designed quarterback runs much like the Panthers’ was in 2015.

Wentz has been pegged as the smartest passer in this year’s class, but it doesn’t show up on film. Wentz can be fooled by defensive coordinators baiting him into bad throws:

And he doesn’t always process things quickly. On the few occasions he had to work to this third or fourth read, it took him far too long to do so. Here he finds his wide open full back too late and throws him out of bounds:

Understanding the playbook and being able to verbalize that understanding in meetings and interviews is one thing, but translating onto the field is another.

Wentz will not make it past the first two picks. His physical tools and experience in a pro style scheme will be too much to pass up on draft day, but this is a risky pick if he can’t adjust to the speed of the NFL coming from a lower level of college football.

NFL comparison: Jake Locker

Make what you want of Connor Cook’s character concerns, but I’m going to ignore them. Michigan State enjoyed an unprecedented run of success during Cook’s time in East Lansing, and he put up impressive numbers. So either Cook’s reported lack of leadership wasn’t really a thing or leadership doesn’t matter all that much.

It’s difficult to find a lot of faults with Cook the player. He doesn’t have a great arm — but enough arm strength to make any NFL throw. He can amp it up when a throw requires some extra juice:

Accuracy has been one of the big knocks against Cook, but it doesn’t show up on film. He completed just 57.5% of his passes at Michigan State, but that’s just a product of the offense. The Spartans employed an aggressive downfield passing game, which is atypical in modern college football. There were hardly any completion percentage-padding screens in Michigan State’s playbook. Cook’s ball placement — especially on throws outside the numbers — was sublime at times:

Cook has the best touch of any passer in this class. He’s comfortable changing speeds depending on the situation. We’ve already seen the example of him firing a ball down the seam; here he is lofting a pass between the second- and third-level defenders:

I’ve been mostly positive so far, but there are some concerns. Cook can be rattled by bodies around him in the pocket. He’s also a bit of risk-taker, making throws into coverage that just aren’t there:

These are problems that should slowly fade away as Cook gets more experience.

If these concerns over leadership end up being a non-story, Cook will make a lot of general managers look foolish for letting him fall past the first round.

NFL comparison: Carson Palmer with less arm strength

In any other year, Lynch is a second-round pick and seen as a project. With this group of passers, he could go in the top-10 to a QB-needy team.

Let’s start with the positives. Lynch is huge and he’s got a big arm. He can also move well for a big man. And, that’s about it. From his mechanics to his understanding of defenses, Lynch is a couple years away from starting for an NFL team.

Lynch doesn’t see the field well, leading him to take sacks while receivers stand wide open:

He has a tendency to rush his mechanics, leading to bad misses. His 66.8 completion percentage was built on screen passes to wide receivers and backs, a significant component of Memphis’ offense.

Decision making is also a concern. Lynch loves to throw late across the middle while on the move, which he gets away with in college but will not on Sundays. There are also times when he predetermines where he will go with the football and makes no post-snap adjustments, regardless of coverage:

But his arm:

It’s so darn enticing:

Just look at this thing in action:

Here’s my totally pessimistic prediction for Lynch: A team is going to fall in love with what’s attached to Lynch’s right shoulder. They are going to keep him on the bench while trying to develop him into a starter and it’s just never going to happen.

NFL comparison: Ryan Mallett

A lot will have to go right for Prescott to end up an NFL starter. Landing with the right team and the right coach will be paramount. The Mississippi State standout has some nice tools — a strong arm and great athleticism — so if he ever learns to operate in the pocket and read defenses, he has a chance. At the very least, Prescott should be able to make spot starts and carry out a game plan that is catered to his skill set.

NFL comparison: Tavaris Jackson

Cardale Jones is a less polished version of Lynch. He’s got a huge arm and a big frame, so a team will take a chance on him in the fourth- or fifth-round. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which he becomes a full-time starter though.

Jones’ accuracy is a big concern. Even short, rhythm throws give him trouble. It’s hard to miss big on short throws, but Jones finds a way:

Ohio State utilized Jones in the run game, but he’s not much of an athlete. He’s a statue in the pocket and holds on to the ball for an eternity. Jones will take a lot of sacks at the next level:

NFL comparison: I didn’t want to do this but … JaMarcus Russell without the work ethic concerns

Jacoby Brissett is another developmental pick whose ceiling, in all likelihood, is as a good backup. He’s got the kind of intriguing skill set that lures teams into taking a mid-round flyer. He’s athletic — although not to the point where a team could build its run game around him — and has a big arm. He’s not particularly accurate, especially on deep passes, and he’s still raw in terms of reading defenses and decision-making.

NFL comparison: Logan Thomas