Harper, Arenado on pace for rare homer feat
In the contemporary era, home run power typically requires a “giveback” in the form of strikeouts. This, of course, is a boom economy for strikeouts, and those that manage to hit with authority while running high contact rates qualify as outliers. And then there’s what Bryce Harper and Nolan Arenado are doing thus far in 2016.
Coming into Tuesday night, Harper had nine home runs against nine strikeouts. Arenado, meantime, had seven homers against six strikeouts. Each has logged a qualifying number of plate appearances. In Harper’s case, he’s obviously even in the two categories of note, but for all but a handful of days this season he’s had more homers than strikeouts.
To be sure, neither Harper nor Arenado are likely to keep this up. It’s an exceedingly difficult feat in any era, let alone this one of hard swings, high fastball velocities, rosters bloated with smoke-throwing relievers, and front offices not so worried about hitters with some swing-and-miss in their games. Arenado and Harper have each significantly reduced the rate at which they swing at pitches outside the strike zone, and that’s an indicator that tends to stabilize pretty early in the season. No, it’s not likely they can run more homers than Ks over the course of the entire season, but it’s at least possible.
So what if? Via the Baseball-Reference Play Index, we learn that since 1901, just 65 qualifying hitters have managed more home runs than strikeouts over a full season. The last was Barry Bonds in 2004. Before that it was George Brett in 1980. Before that it was Vic Power in 1958. Some additional odds and ends …
- The most homers by a player with more homers than strikeouts in the same season is Johnny Mize’s 51 in 1947.
- Ten times a player led his league in homers while having more homers than strikeouts. Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio each did it twice. Ted Kluszewki in 1954 was the last to pull it off.
- A special shout-out to Tommy Holmes of the 1945 Boston Braves. He led the NL that year with 28 homers and struck out just nine times in 636 at-bats. Yes, it was a different era and baseball was thinned out by World War II, but that’s remarkable in any context.
- Regarding Harper’s current status, 16 qualifiers have ended their respective seasons with exactly as many homers as strikeouts. The last were Hall of Famers Yogi Berra and Red Schoendienst in 1957.
- Just 10 hitters have ended their careers with more home runs than strikeouts. The one who logged the most plate appearances? Walter Tappan with 45 plate appearances in 1914. That list also includes “hitters” like Esteban Yan and Mark Worrell, who were better known as, you know, pitchers.
So, yes, if Harper and Arenado are able to keep this up, it’ll be a historically impressive attainment. It’ll be even more impressive once you apply the full context of today’s playing environment.
Nolan Arenado and Bryce Harper are making us think about rare historical feats. (USATSI)
