Under the radar MLB DFS picks for Monday – ESPN (blog)
As part of ESPN Fantasy’s efforts to provide intel to daily fantasy gamers on whom to target in DFS, our baseball experts are here to show you which players they are building teams around and which sleepers they are taking fliers on.
Today’s panel features ESPN’s Eric Karabell, Joe Kaiser, Derek Carty, Tristan H. Cockcroft and Leo Howell, and Al Zeidenfeld of Dailyfantasybootcamp.com.
Building blocks
Leo Howell: Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
There are plenty of great hitters to target at Coors Field, and several other pitchers you should consider, but the fact that Bumgarner almost certainly won’t be as popular as he should be puts him over the top in my rankings for the day. People will remember his shaky moments to start the season and forget that the young star is facing a terrible San Diego offense and has put the walk issues he displayed in the season opener behind him. The Padres have the fourth-worst team OPS in baseball, fifth-most strikeouts and seventh-worst at-bat-to-home-run ratio. MadBum is going to clean up his ERA and WHIP by the time he exits the game.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets
Thor or Bumgarner? Bumgarner or Thor? They’re far and away the top two starting pitching choices Monday, but I’m going to break the tie with the simple facts that Syndergaard is the cheaper one on DraftKings, and he’s the one with the home game (versus Cincinnati). In addition, I’m a little wary of the fact San Diego has had the most hitting troubles against righties, not that I’m about to let that dissuade me from pivoting to Bumgarner should the Padres roll out the clearly inferior lineup of the two.
Eric Karabell: Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets
Yeah, I’m not really going to mess around here. Some days I might, but Thor is off to a silly start, and it almost doesn’t matter which team he is facing. In this case, it’s the Reds, and they aren’t so intimidating, especially when their best hitter is batting .206. The price doesn’t matter here; Syndergaard should be worth it.
Derek Carty: Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies
I’m still deciding whether Bumgarner or Syndergaard is my No. 1 pitcher tonight, but the one guy I know with near certainty will be in my lineup is Story. The Rockies look like the stronger half of Coors tonight, and their No. 2 will have the platoon advantage against a middling Pirates lefty, Jeff Locke. Plus, considering how much Locke and catchers Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart struggle in preventing steals, Story looks like a solid bet to swipe a bag today.
Al Zeidenfeld: Noah Syndergaard, SP New York Mets
Play as many bats as you can fit from the Pirates-Rockies game … and also do whatever you can to fit in Syndergaard as well. The numbers, underlying metrics and skill set to support their sustainability are all in place, and Syndergaard gets a Reds offense that is 26th in the league in wOBA versus right-handed pitchers and will see a negative park shift playing in Citi Field as opposed to Great American Ballpark. Thirty DraftKings points looks extremely likely, so don’t overthink it.
Joe Kaiser: Ryan Raburn, OF, Colorado Rockies
Alert, alert: Raburn is facing a lefty, Locke, on what’s expected to be a dry night at Coors Field. Raburn’s price is higher than you’d think, given his role as a backup in Colorado, but few players in the game today hit southpaws as well as Raburn. Get him into your lineups tonight.
Sleeper picks
Leo Howell: Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels
The Royals will send Ian Kennedy to the mound to face the Angels, which is great news for left-handed bats for the Halos. In this year’s limited sample size, Kennedy has done well against lefties, but his recent history suggests that’s bound to change. Last season, Kennedy allowed a slugging percentage over 40 points higher against opposite-handed batters, and in 2013 there was a 110-point split highlighted by allowing 11 more home runs to lefties in a similar number of at-bats. Calhoun has been hitting the ball well this season. Look for him to add a homer tonight off of Kennedy.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers
Nathan Eovaldi has struggled mightily against left-handed bats this season, affording them .345/.367/.679 rates and an outrageous .241 hard-hit average, plus Globe Life Park is hardly a good venue in which for him to pitch. Mazara has been traditionally slotting in second, and he has done well against all types of fastballs thus far, so it’s a good day to use him.
Eric Karabell: Ryan Raburn, OF, Colorado Rockies
He is one of my fave inexpensive, right-handed hitting outfielders when a lefty is pitching — and in this case it’s no ordinary lefty. Pittsburgh’s Locke boasts a 7.24 ERA and 2.63 WHIP after three starts and now heads to Coors Field. What could possibly go wrong? Yes, there’s danger that Locke is removed so early when he gets lit that Raburn is replaced, but perhaps not. The Pirates burned through most of their bullpen in Arizona on Sunday. Raburn is hitting all pitching so far, and whenever a lefty is starting, he’s a good pick.
Derek Carty: Justin Smoak, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
How are Blue Jays so cheap? They’re at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre against the worst pitcher of the day, Miguel Gonzalez, who allows a lot of fly balls. For a team with so much power, that’s a nice combination. Plus, Gonzalez will be throwing to a weak pitch-framing catcher (doesn’t much matter whether it’s Dioner Navarro or Alex Avila) and will be backed by a below-average defense and bullpen. Smoak probably won’t hit any higher than sixth or seventh, but given his $2,700 price tag on DraftKings, that’s more than good enough. Plus, it will give you the flexibility to spend up on Coors bats.
Al Zeidenfeld: Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
There are two third basemen in Coors today who will have positive platoon splits, power potential and super-high ownership numbers. This leaves Donaldson in a position where he should come in under what his ownership numbers should be in Rogers Centre, versus a below-average left-handed pitcher. Last year at home versus LHPs, Donaldson posted video-game numbers of .373 ISO, .453 wOba and a 192 wRC+ and has picked up in 2016 right where he left off. If not for the Pirates-Rockies game being in Colorado, Donaldson likely would be a building block today, but this gives you a great opportunity in tournaments.
Joe Kaiser: Seth Smith, OF, Seattle Mariners
Smith is always affordably priced and underowned, despite being a terrific hitter against right-handers and typically moving up to the second spot in the batting order when a righty is on the mound. Smith connected on his second home run of the season Sunday (off of Angels right Matt Shoemaker), and you can expect him to hit the ball hard at least a few times tonight against Astros righty Doug Fister.
