NFL Draft: It'll be a waiting game for Patriots picks – Worcester Telegram
FOXBORO — Only the perennially pathetic Cleveland Browns and the suddenly somnolent San Francisco 49ers enter the 2016 NFL Draft with more picks than the consistently contending Patriots.
The Browns and 49ers each have 12 pick in the draft, which gets underway at 8 p.m. Thursday in Chicago with the first round, continues Friday night with Rounds 2 and 3, and Saturday afternoon with the final four rounds.
The Patriots have 11 picks, including two each in the second and third rounds. That’s good news for a team that, despite having what appears to have been a successful foray in free agency, still has quite a few needs, including tackle, running back, receiver, interior pass rusher and cornerback.
The bad news is the Patriots currently don’t have a first-round pick. They were slotted 29th overall, but forfeited the selection as part of their penance for Deflategate.
There’s nothing to keep the Patriots from trading into the first round, except the knowledge the league will take the highest pick away from them. So there’s no sense in going beyond 29.
That means the potential trade partners are effectively limited to the teams that will make the final three picks in the first round: the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos. Further complicating the matter is it’s difficult to envision the Patriots and Broncos engaging in a trade considering they’re both vying for AFC supremacy.
The other big issue facing the Patriots is the giant gaps they have at two junctures.
They currently aren’t slated to make their first pick until the second round, when they have back-to-back selections starting at No. 60. So that’s a lot of waiting and watching.
The Patriots then have two picks in the third round, Nos. 91 and 96, but none in the fourth and fifth rounds. They don’t resume drafting until the sixth round, with the 196th overall selection. So more waiting and watching.
“We’ll see,” director of player personnel Nick Caserio replied last week when asked what the challenges are when faced with a long wait between picks.
The Patriots have made 55 draft-day trades since Bill Belichick arrived in 2000, including 17 to move up and 19 to move down. The only year they didn’t make a deal was 2004.
So it seems inevitable they’ll do some moving this year.
“It can move both ways,” Caserio said. “So I think the most important thing is knowing the players, knowing who you’re talking about, and then if you are going to make a decision to move up from where you are, who are you moving up for and what’s the rationale. So you try to weigh out a number of different things as you’re going through it.”
The challenge facing the Patriots is four of their picks are compensatory (rewards for losing free agents last offseason) and can’t be traded. So that leaves seven to work with, four of which are in the sixth and seventh rounds and are collectively worth a mere 26 points on the trade value chart.
For example, packing all four late-round selections with the 60th overall pick would allow the Patriots to move up about three spots in the second round. Hardly seems worth it.
Considering the draft is alleged to have excellent depth for players graded in the 20- to 60-pick range, it seems unlikely the Patriots will move back from Nos. 60 and 61. However, dealing the 91st overall selection — five from the bottom of the third round — would net them one pick each in the fourth and fifth rounds, thus breaching the gap between 96 and 196.
“However it works itself out, we’re prepared to pick either way whether it’s from 96 to 196, whether we move, we’re prepared, we’re flexible,” Caserio said. “I think you have to keep an open mind with a lot of this. Nothing’s really set in stone, if you will. You have to be flexible, it’s pretty fluid and you just have to be prepared for when every opportunity comes.”
Whatever happens during the draft, at least one draftnik likes the Patriots’ position coming in.
“They’re picking back to back at 60 and 61, and then 91 and 96,” NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said. “Most personnel guys will tell you they love that kind of draft where you get two twos and two threes. There is a hole at the top, but nothing you can do about that.”
—Contact Rich Garven at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @RichGarvenTG.