Brady, Romo, Leaf: NFL teams struggle to evaluate quarterbacks – Fort Worth Star Telegram
The San Diego Chargers made Ryan Leaf the No. 2 overall choice in 1998. Yet, Tom Brady waited until the sixth round in 2000 before the New England Patriots took him with the 199th overall pick.
The Dallas Cowboys signed Tony Romo to a $10,000 signing bonus as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2003. Yet, the Tennessee Titans paid Jake Locker $12.6 million over four years after making him the eighth overall pick in 2011.
Why do NFL teams have so much trouble evaluating quarterbacks?
So much of it’s still a crapshoot. If you could analyze those two things [heart and brain], you could make millions of dollars.
Arizona Cardinals coach Bruce Arians
“When you’re dealing with these guys and evaluating the two muscles, you can’t evaluate the brain and the heart,” Arizona Cardinals coach Bruce Arians said. “They’re the two you play with. You try to get to know them as well as you can.
“You go back and try to get into a huddle with them as many times as you can and see. You can evaluate how much they know, but you can’t evaluate how they process it in 30 seconds or less. That’s how you play the game.
“So much of it’s still a crapshoot. If you could analyze those two things, you could make millions of dollars.”
Evaluating quarterbacks always has been an inexact science.
Scouts look at a player’s stats and experience. They look at the system a college quarterback played in. They look at his physical measurements. They judge arm strength and accuracy.
But none of that guarantees success or failure in the NFL.
In 2011, four NFL teams drafted quarterbacks in the first round. Only the Carolina Panthers, with the No. 1 overall pick, found a franchise savior. Cam Newton earned MVP honors last season.
The Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings struck out with top-12 picks that year, taking Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder, respectively.
All three teams went back to the drawing board and drafted quarterbacks in the first round the past two years, with the Titans taking Marcus Mariota in 2015, the Vikings getting Teddy Bridgewater in 2014 and the Jaguars selecting Blake Bortles in ’14.
I think that’s one position where you really have to try to home in on the mental part of it — third downs, two-minute, come-from-behind victories?
Vikings general manager Rick Spielman
“You can see the stats and what they’re doing, and you can see the physical ability, their arm strength, their ability to move in the pocket with their athletic traits,” Vikings general manager Rick Spielman said. “I think that’s one position where you really have to try to home in on the mental part of it — third downs, two-minute, come-from-behind victories? How do they respond in those stress situations?”
Evaluating quarterbacks has become even harder than it used to be, too, with the college game moving to spread offenses. Private quarterbacks coach George Whitfield compares it to “going from flying a helicopter to flying a military jet.”
Many college quarterbacks never study film, call a play in the huddle, read a defense or take a snap under center until they get to the NFL. It is a steep learning curve.
“They come from different college systems and when they come to the pros, it’s just a totally different ballgame,” Houston Texans coach Bill O’Brien said. “You’re talking about defenses that are very multiple, do a lot of different things, personnel-oriented.
“Some of these guys we talk to them initially, and they don’t even know the difference between nickel and base defense. You’re starting from scratch.”
In the 2011 draft, Jake Locker (8th), Blaine Gabbert (10th) and Christian Ponder (12th) were drafted ahead of TCU’s Andy Dalton (35th).
History, though, indicates teams are more likely to hit on a franchise quarterback in the first round than in the sixth round, despite Brady’s success.
Of the 25 modern-era quarterbacks in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, 12 were first-round choices. Two were drafted in the second round, three in the third round and two in the fourth round. Five were drafted in the fifth round or later, and Warren Moon signed as a free agent after playing in the Canadian Football League.
Sixth-round picks have a 9 percent chance to develop into starters, according to research by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
In the 2000 draft, six quarterbacks were selected before Brady. Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger and Spergon Wynn combined for 32 seasons in the league and an 89-102 record. Brady enters his 17th season with a 172-51 regular-season record and four Super Bowl titles.
Some of these guys we talk to them initially, and they don’t even know the difference between nickel and base defense.
Houston Texans coach Bill O’Brien
How did so many teams get it so wrong?
“One of the things we talk about as a must for that position is instinct and feel for the game,” Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said. “Great quarterbacks come in all shapes and sizes, but I’m not so sure I’ve ever seen a great quarterback who wasn’t instinctive in some way.
“You can ask what the manifestation of instinct is. It’s just a guy who has a feel for the game, a feel for competing, a feel for people around him, a way to kind of function and help his team move the ball, score points and win games.
“All the great quarterbacks have that and it manifests itself a lot of different ways, but it’s something you really have to look for.”
6 Quarterbacks from the modern era drafted in the fifth round or later, or signed as a free agent (Warren Moon) who are in the Hall of Fame.
