Bob McManaman's NFL mock draft: 4th edition – azcentral.com
azcentral sports NFL insider Bob McManaman offers his updated NFL Mock Draft. Follow him on Twitter @azbobbymac.
The NFL draft is April 28-30 in Chicago and here’s how things may play out in the first round.
Last year in my final Mock Draft, I correctly projected 26 of the 32 players that would be selected in the first round, with five going to the designated team I projected.
With that, here is my 2016 NFL Mock Draft. My picks are based on observations, team needs, scouting services and various NFL sources:
1. Los Angeles Rams (from the Titans): QB Jared Goff, 6-4, 210, California
Comment: The Rams make a huge splash in their return to Los Angeles by snagging the top-rated quarterback in the draft, but they gave up a ton to do it. They needed a franchise QB, however, and Goff has all the traits to make this up-and-coming team a real contender before long.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (from the Browns): QB Carson Wentz, 6-5, 231, North Dakota State
Comment: He’s already being compared to the Cardinals’ Carson Palmer, and like Palmer, he may sit his rookie season before being given control of the offense. Wentz is talented enough to win the job in training camp, which explains why the Eagles gave up so much to get this pick.
3. San Diego Chargers: CB/S Jalen Ramsey, 6-1, 202, Florida State
Comment: As great as Ole Miss left tackle Laremy Tunsil is, the Chargers are relatively set on the offensive line, and in Ramsey, they immediately bolster a weakened secondary. He might be the best overall talent in this draft.
4. Dallas Cowboys: DE Joey Bosa, 6-5, 317, Ohio State
Comment: I’m sticking with this pick because Bosa will make the Cowboys’ defensive front a group to be feared, but something tells me Jerry Jones will throw a wrench into things and surprise us all. Maybe it’s Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott or Oregon DE/DT DeForest Buckner. Or could it be Memphis QB Paxton Lynch?
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE/DT DeForest Buckner, 6-7, 290, Oregon
Comment: Pick change. Previously, I’ve had UCLA LB Myles Jack penciled in at this spot, but as talented as he is, Buckner’s stock is rising, and I don’t think the Jaguars will pass on him. The only way they might is if Ramsey were to fall to them at No. 5.
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6. Baltimore Ravens: OT Laremy Tunsil, 6-5, 305, Ole Miss
Comment: Who would have thought the player most everyone believed would go No. 1 overall could fall to the Ravens? They certainly didn’t, but it’s a virtual jackpot pick for Baltimore, which immediately fills its greatest need with the top-rated tackle in the draft.
7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Paxton Lynch, 6-7, 244, Memphis
Comment: Pick change. Previously, I had Buckner going here, but after the Rams and Eagles sold the farm to move up and snag the top two-rated quarterbacks, I can see the 49ers gambling on Lynch, assuming they’re still trading Colin Kaepernick to Denver. It would be a big reach, however.
8. Cleveland Browns (from the Eagles): OLB Myles Jack, 6-1, 245, UCLA
Comment: The Browns are rebuilding again, which usually involves stacking the trenches on both sides of the ball. They could target OTs Jack Conklin or Ronnie Stanley here, which would make sense. They could go with a pass rusher like Shaq Lawson or Leonard Floyd. But I like Jack and they can start building again with him.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CB Vernon Hargreaves, 5-11, 199, Florida
Comment: The secondary is almost back to normal if Hargreaves is the pick here, and I don’t see why it wouldn’t be. He’s an ideal ball-hawking corner who can completely take away one side of the field, which makes him invaluable.
10. New York Giants: WR Laquon Treadwell, 6-2, 210, Ole Miss
Comment: Everybody else seems to be of the opinion the Giants will go offensive lineman here, but as I’ve noted previously, that would be the third time in four years the G-Men have used their first-round pick on an O-lineman. In Treadwell, they get themselves another Odell Beckham Jr., unless his slow 40 time scares them off.
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11. Chicago Bears: DE Shaq Lawson, 6-3, 270, Clemson
Comment: Pick change. Previously, I had them taking Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott, but the more I kept thinking about it, the more I went back to my originals thoughts that the Bears must focus on defense. Lawson invigorates an inept pass rush, which is a great place to start.
12. New Orleans Saints: OT Jack Conklin, 6-6, 318, Michigan State
Comment: Pick change. I’m going from Shaq Lawson to Conklin, who might not be a sexy pick, but I’ve mentioned him here before. Though fixing the defense remains a priority, so is keeping Drew Brees upright during his finals days in New Orleans.
13. Miami Dolphins (from the Eagles): RB Ezekiel Elliott, 6-0, 225, Ohio State
Comment: Pick change. Conklin was the pick, but now that he’s gone I can see them taking Elliott. He’s an every-down back and more than makes up for the loss of Lamar Miller to free agency. The Dolphins need a cornerback, though, so keep that in mind.
14. Oakland Raiders: OLB Leonard Floyd, 6-3, 232, Georgia
Comment: I’ll stay with Floyd as the pick here, even though there are a multitude of directions the Raiders can go, including defensive tackle and cornerback. Floyd is another interesting piece to a vastly improving team on the verge of returning to the playoffs.
15. Tennessee Titans (from Rams): OT Ronnie Stanley, 6-6, 215, Notre Dame
Comment: They lost the chance to draft Tunsil when they stockpiled a barrel of picks to move out of the No. 1 spot, but the Titans still get what they need – a top-rated tackle to help protect young quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Titans are now covered at both tackle spots.
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16. Detroit Lions: OT Taylor Decker, 6-7, 310, Ohio State
Comment: Pick change. Previously, I had the Lions going with Alabama defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson to help inject some more nastiness up front on defense. But with three offensive tackles now off the board, including two in the last four picks, I think the Lions pounce on Decker before he can go anywhere.
17. Atlanta Falcons: ILB Reggie Ragland, 6-2, 252, Alabama
Comment: You’ll hear a lot about the Falcons having interest in Ohio State OLB Darron Lee and while he would be a great fit in a rebuilding defense, I still say the rebuilding starts inside with Ragland, the best at his position in this draft.
18. Indianapolis Colts: LB Noah Spence, 6-3, 245, Eastern Kentucky
Comment: Pick change. Previously, I’ve had the Colts taking Alabama center Ryan Kelly, which I still believe makes perfect sense. Further protecting Andrew Luck remains a priority. However, I’ve been hearing whispers about the Colts falling in love with Spence, a sensational pass rusher and disrupter who has owned up to some off-field issues.
19. Buffalo Bills: DT A’Shawn Robinson, 6-3, 312, Alabama
Comment: Pick change. I’ve had them targeting Ole Miss DT/DE Robert Nkemdiche, and while I don’t think the red flags he brings with him scares off Rex Ryan or the Bills, going with Robinson here probably makes a little more sense.
20. New York Jets: DT Andrew Billings, 6-1, 311, Baylor
Comment: Pick change. Unless they reach for Michigan State QB Connor Cook here – and I don’t think they will – the Jets almost certainly will go defense at No. 20. I previously had them taking Ohio State OLB Darron Lee. Now it’s an interior lineman in Billings, who is explosive and super strong.
21. Washington Redskins: DT Jarran Reed, 6-3, 313, Alabama
Comment: I had them selecting Houston CB William Jackson III until they broke the bank and gave free-agent corner Josh Norman $50 million in guaranteed money two days after the Panthers pulled their franchise tag from them and allowed him to hit the open market. Reed will add to the defense by increasing Washington’s front line.
22. Houston Texans: WR Corey Coleman, 5-11, 184, Baylor
Comment: I love this pick and if Brock Osweiler proves to be the real deal – or at least a legitimate upgrade over what the Texans have had previously at quarterback – adding a stud like Coleman makes them a real team to watch. He’d be great opposite DeAndre Hopkins.
23. Minnesota Vikings: WR Josh Doctson, 6-2, 202, TCU
Comment: It’ll probably be a wide receiver, but will it be Doctson, Coleman or Notre Dame’s Will Fuller? All I know is the Vikings don’t have much in the tank at that position and on my board, Doctson is the next-best available receiver, hands down.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: CB William Jackson III, 6-0, 189, Houston
Comment: Pick change. I’m going from Ohio State CB Eli Apple to Jackson now that I have him available at this spot. Problem is, they really might be tempted to go with Notre Dame WR Will Fuller here because they lost their Nos. 2 and 3 receivers – Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu – to free agency.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Eli Apple, 6-1, 200, Ohio State
Comment: The Steelers would love it if Apple falls to them here and I actually have him rated higher than Jackson. Pittsburgh has been trying to restore the secondary for a while now and this kid could end up being a real star in short order. I had them taking a different Ohio State player last time out, but OT Taylor Decker is long gone.
26. Seattle Seahawks: C Ryan Kelly, 6-4, 311, Alabama
Comment: Pick change and the Cardinals probably won’t like it. Though the notion has been Seattle will focus on defense in the first round, particularly up front, don’t be shocked if the Seahawks pluck Kelly at No. 26. I still think he could go as high as No.18 to the Colts, but if he falls, I’m not sure he makes it past this pick.
27. Green Bay Packers: DT Sheldon Rankins, 6-1, 299, Louisville
Comment: No change. As previously noted, B.J. Raji retired so there is a natural need for a nose tackle and Rankins checks all the boxes. He’s a powerful force who brings energy and a real fury at the snap of the ball.
28. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Mackensie Alexander, 5-10, 195, Clemson
Comment: Alexander might be gone, or he might fall to the second round. He’s one of the next-best available cornerbacks, however, and the Chiefs are desperate to pick one, so he remains my selection here once again. Notre Dame WR Will Fuller is another option.
29. Arizona Cardinals: S/CB T.J. Green, 6-2, 209, Clemson
Comment: Pick change. When I asked GM Steve Keim directly about Green last week, he called the converted wide receiver “one of the most intriguing guys in the draft.” Green has Charles Woodson-like talent and is blowing up draft boards everywhere. That being said, take a look at what the Cardinals might be passing up if they, indeed, go Green: Ole Miss DT/DE Robert Nkemdiche; Michigan State OLB/DE Shilique Calhoun, Ohio State OLB Darron Lee, Oklahoma State DE Emmanuel Ogbah and the player I have going next to Carolina.
30. Carolina Panthers: OLB/DE Kevin Dodd, 6-5, 277, Clemson
Comment: Pick change. They need help in the secondary now that they’ve parted ways with star CB Josh Norman, but they can address that by putting more emphasis on their pass rush and Dodd can provide that right away. If one of the corners falls here, that remains a viable option. So does an offensive lineman or some of the defensive linemen I mentioned above in the Cardinals’ scenarios.
31. Denver Broncos: QB Connor Cook, 6-4, 218, Michigan State.
Comment: Pick change. Previously, I had the Broncos taking Alabama DT Jarran Reed. Now it’s a quarterback again after penciling Paxton Lynch in this spot earlier. Again, this is predicated on whether or not Denver pulls off the trade with San Francisco for Colin Kaepernick. If it doesn’t happen, I can see the Broncos taking Cook here. If they don’t, there’s a good chance he will go first overall in the second round to Cleveland.
Note: The New England Patriots had to forfeit their first-round pick this year.
Reach McManaman at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @azbobbymac and listen to him live every Monday at 5:30 p.m. on NBC Sports Radio 1060-AM with Roc and Manuch and every Wednesday night between 7-9 on Fox Sports 910-AM on The Freaks with Kenny and Crash.
