NFL draft's Day 3 difference-makers

NFL draft's Day 3 difference-makers – Sports On Earth

By Doug Farrar

Last season, among the 32 players selected in the first round of the draft, a grand total of five (Saints linebacker Stephone Anthony, Falcons linebacker Vic Beasley, Redskins guard Brandon Scherff, Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters and Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston) started all 16 games for their teams. Among the players selected on the third day of the draft, in the fourth through seventh rounds, three players (Bears safety Adrian Amos, Vikings tackle T.J. Clemmings and Colts defensive tackle David Parry) started all 16 games for their teams.

That’s not a fluke — it’s tough to find first-year, all-season starters in any round, and the combination of talent and opportunity makes the designation somewhat random. Some players are meant to be developmental, while other, less-heralded players will show out in training camp, replace an injured or ineffective veteran and hold the point at his position for the entire year.

NFL teams generally hope to get 16 or more starts out of their rookies if they’re selected in the first round, but here are 10 players we believe could come up from the third day of the draft, based on current media projections, and surprise their teams with great value for the draft dollar.

Vernon Adams, QB, Oregon: Adams threw for 10,438 yards and 110 touchdowns in three years at Eastern Washington, and he didn’t just feast on lesser opponents. He threw seven TD passes in 2014 against a Washington defense that sent four defensive players to the NFL in the first two rounds of the 2015 draft. After graduating from EWU, he played for a year at Oregon, replacing Marcus Mariota and rounding into shape after a broken finger stalled his start. Still, he out-dueled Jared Goff by throwing four touchdowns against Cal, threw six scores against USC, and looked very good in the East-West Shrine game — three drives, three touchdowns. Adams is among the best deep throwers in this class, and he throws out of pressure very well. He’s also very aware in the pre-snap phase, and he’s a natural leader. So, why is he regarded as a third-day or possibly undraftable prospect? Adams stands 5-foot-10 and weighs 200 pounds, and despite the success of Russell Wilson and Drew Brees, there is still a height bias among analysts and some NFL teams. Also, there’s a sense that Adams benefited too much from Oregon’s offense and against some highly suspect Pac-12 coverages. Funny, the same argument isn’t held against Goff. In any case, Adams does have the potential in the right system to be a Tyrod Taylor-type player, and Wilson is the upside. A lot of NFL teams are going to miss on Adams, and he’s got what it takes to make them regret it.

Paul Perkins, RB, UCLA: According to Pro Football Focus’ metrics, no NCAA back forced more missed tackles last year than Perkins, who caused 85 whiffs. Perkins gained 3,488 yards and scored 29 touchdowns on 621 carries in three seasons for the Bruins, adding 80 catches for 729 yards and three touchdowns in the passing game. Still, he’s seen as a third- to fourth-round pick in the minds of many. Size is a concern — he’s 5-foot-10 and 208 pounds — and he’s more of a pure scatback than a brawler. With that, the 4.54 40-yard dash he ran at the scouting combine didn’t help his case. What you have to do with Perkins is throw on the tape and watch him break the ankles of defenders all over the field with his vision, lateral movement and ability to cut quickly and run. Yes, he needs to be more bullish against arm tackles and the efforts of smaller defenders, but he’s got the traits to succeed right away in the appropriate scheme.

Keyarris Garrett, WR, Tulsa: Garrett led the nation in receiving yards in 2015 with 1,588 on 96 catches, adding eight touchdowns along the way. Many in the know see him as a hidden gem, but the combination of his limited acceleration over the design of a route, a limited route tree in general, and his relatively weak strength of opponent may push him down to the fourth or fifth rounds. He did run a 4.53 40-yard dash at the combine at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds — similar measurements to Ole Miss’ Laquon Treadwell, who ran a 4.64 40 at his pro day and is seen as a first-rounder. No, Garrett isn’t as developed a player as Treadwell, especially in the power game, but he did catch 28 passes of 20 yards or more last season, and he could fit a lot of NFL teams pretty quickly as a second receiver and potential slot man. Add in his knack for making amazing contested catches, and Garrett may be a late-round surprise.

Joe Thuney, OG, North Carolina State: Thuney joined the Wolfpack as a 245-pound backup center and developed into a versatile star, playing all five positions on the line throughout his collegiate career. Last season was his best, as he allowed two sacks, one quarterback hit and four quarterback hurries in 472 passing snaps. That earned him an All-ACC selection. Still, the tape shows that he’s probably not a natural pass protector at the NFL level. He got by more on strength and guile than the ability to create an arc with his kickstep and mirror edge rushers. Most project him as a guard or right tackle at the next level. Thuney is a naturally powerful run blocker who could eventually become a fine all-around NFL tackle with a bit of finishing work, and the potential is there despite the rough spots.

Joe Haeg, OT, North Dakota State: While Carson Wentz, the man Haeg protected for the Bison, is projected as one of the top two players to be taken in this draft, Haeg is seen almost unilaterally as a third-day guy. He started in college as a right tackle in 2012 and 2013, moving to the left side after Billy Turner left for the NFL. Strength of competition is an issue for Haeg, because he didn’t always dominate his small-school opponents, and that’s what the NFL wants to see above all from players arriving from less prestigious programs. Still, he allowed just one sack, one hit and one hurry last year in 238 passing snaps, and he operated in an underrated offensive scheme that ran everything from five-wide spread concepts to read-option and QB power schemes reminiscent of the Carolina Panthers. Haeg has great feet and the ability to handle all kinds of pressure. He’ll need to boost his play strength over time to make a dent as a starting left tackle, but there’s no reason he couldn’t sub in and impress until that happens.

Sheldon Day, DT, Notre Dame: Tweeners tend to drop in the draft, especially when they play at positions that are overstocked in a particular class. As a defensive lineman standing 6-foot-1 and weighing 293 pounds, Day has both problems. This isn’t a class where NFL teams need to compromise in the early rounds, which leaves Day in a bit of a pinch. He’s also got a fairly lengthy injury history, which doesn’t help. But he lined up all over the place for the Fighting Irish through four seasons and was healthy enough in 2015 to amass four sacks, nine quarterback hits and 33 quarterback hurries — one of the highest pressure totals for any collegiate defensive lineman last season. He’s also a high-quality run-stopper who plays with more strength than his frame might indicate. He’ll need to land with the right NFL team that will understand his value and do a bit of position-creating, but you can reasonably compare Day to Green Bay’s Mike Daniels, another multi-gap stud who had to make his name in a unique way.

Adolphus Washington, DT, Ohio State: The talk about the Buckeyes’ defensive line tends to start and stop with Joey Bosa these days, but let’s not forget Washington, who racked up four sacks, eight hits and 35 hurries in his senior season. He was just as good in 2014, when Ohio State took the national championship. His judgment will be questioned after he was arrested and suspended in December 2015 for solicitation, and at 6-foot-3 and 301 pounds he could use a little more lower-body strength. But Washington does have the look of a developmental pass-rushing defensive tackle, and as much as NFL teams rotate their tackles these days, he could see serious reps in the right kind of 4-3 base defense.

Yannick Ngakoue, EDGE, Maryland: Ngakoue gets lost in the shuffle when people talk about edge rushers in this class, but he certainly made himself known against strong opponents. He had 41 total pressures against Power 5 teams last season, and he finished third in the NCAA in sacks behind Penn State’s Carl Nassib and Florida Atlantic’s Trey Hendrickson with 13. I see in Ngakoue a player who could make an immediate difference with his combination of speed, flexibility and gap quickness, but he’ll need to be more consistent in his snap timing and upper-body leverage. He could be a real asset for a creative defensive coordinator who moves him around as a roving blitzer.

Victor Ochi, EDGE, Stony Brook: When you play in the Colonial Athletic Association and get your sacks against Elon, Howard, William & Mary and Rhode Island, your strength of competition will be questioned — and rightly so. But Ochi also looked good when he played in the East-West Shrine Game, chasing the aforementioned Adams down for a sack and generally throwing himself around the field with reckless abandon. Ochi amassed 235 tackles and 50.5 tackles for loss for the Seawolves (awesome name), and while he’s a bit small at 6-foot-1 and 246 pounds, he projects very well as a player who could fill out his game on a 3-4 base team and start piling up the pressures in the NFL. When you watch Ochi, it’s easy to see his quickness off the snap, the bend around the outside blocker, and the ability to use his long arms to set the edge and frustrate tackles. A little more muscle, and Ochi could be on his way.

Travis Feeney, OLB, Washington: This is the era of the lighter, faster NFL linebacker, and Feeney certainly fits the bill. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, this former safety accepted the challenge of linebacking coverage for the Huskies from the start, picking off two passes as a freshman and four total in his career. When Hau’oli Kikaha took off for the NFL after the 2014 season, Washington moved Feeney to the Buck linebacker position, and he responded with 34 total pressures and 17.5 tackles for loss in 2015. Some see Feeney as a tweener who doesn’t have the power to play linebacker at the next level, but it’s also entirely possible that his NFL team will make him more of a hybrid player in the Deone Bucannon mold.

Honorable mention: Nick Vigil, OLB, Utah State; Joe Schobert OLB, Wisconsin; Tavon Young, CB, Temple; Caleb Williams, CB, Georgia Southern; Will Parks, SS, Arizona.

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Doug Farrar is an NFL writer for Sports Illustrated and SI.com. He has contributed to eight editions of the Football Outsiders annual, is working on his first book and has contributed to the Seattle Times, the Washington Post, the New York Sun, FOX Sports, ESPN.com and ESPN The Magazine. He lives in Seattle.