A lot of things matter to recruits when picking a school: Relationships with coaches. Campus life. Tradition. Location. Academics. Pro development. Scheme.

Perhaps more than any other position, it’s important for quarterbacks to pay attention to the relationship between the last two on that list. I’ve been thinking about this for a while, and with the NFL Draft approaching and a number of draft-centric articles being published, now is as good a time as any to consider what quarterback recruits might want to consider when picking a school.

In April, the Rams and Eagles traded their farms for the opportunity to (likely) draft quarterbacks with the No. 1 and 2 picks. Quarterbacks are far from a sure thing, but especially so in the 2016 draft. Jared Goff is from an air raid offense at Cal, and Carson Wentz played for an FCS school. With new passing rules, top quarterbacks are necessary but not sufficient for teams looking to win championships. They matter so much that teams are willing to massively overpay in terms of draft picks or by extending decent young quarterbacks with huge money with the hope they’ll someday become elite (hello, Andy Dalton).

Why does playing for an air raid offense make a QB so risky?

Track record. Tim Couch, Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel, Kevin Kolb, Geno Smith, John Beck, Nick Foles, Josh Heupel, Kliff Kingsbury and B.J. Symons have all been drafted out of air raid systems and have ranged from complete busts to below-average passers. This is a pretty huge red flag. It’s even bigger when you include the struggles of QBs from the Baylor system, which is closer to the air raid than anything else, even if it’s not a true air raid.

But why have air raid passers failed to spectacularly? My colleague Jason Kirk has an idea:

Maybe air raid QBs have been overrated due to their big stats? It’s typically an underdog offense, for teams that can’t just overpower or out-speed opponents, which means its quarterbacks are rarely considered top prospects in high school or until late in their college careers.

I tend to think it is because they are not being prepared for the NFL. While fans of the spread will tell you that the NFL is becoming more and more spread-friendly with each passing year, the fact of the matter is that the gap between the air raid college passing game and the NFL is still quite the chasm.

It simply does not translate. NFL defenses are a lot more complicated than college units, and the learning curve is very steep. Having to learn to call protections, diagnose defenses and, heck, take a snap for the first time ever when hitting the league is really tough, no matter what spread lovers say. Maybe that will change in the future, but for now, mastering footwork and the mental side of the game is really important for the NFL success. Air raid QBs have failed in these areas.

With that in mind, the air raid is not exactly ruining the NFL chances of stud quarterback recruits.

As Kirk notes, it is a decidedly underdog strategy, and most of the players who sign to play in the air raid don’t have the physical tools to excel in the league anyhow.

That’s what makes Goff different. While the vast majority of elite quarterback recruits are signing up for systems that more closely mimic the NFL, Goff did not. And Goff was a really talented recruit, a four-star, top-250 nationally ranked player with a big arm and a good offer list. He’s not the type of player air raid schools typically land.

While Goff’s learning curve may be as steep as any other air raid QB, he might be more talented than any in recent memory, which could help him make the climb.

Are elite quarterback recruits smart for avoiding the air raid schools? If they want to make the NFL, the evidence says yes.

Former Clemson QB Tahj Boyd had some revealing comments to Sports Illustrated about his lack of preparedness coming from Clemson’s spread-option offense. Clemson does not run the air raid, but it doesn’t run a system resembling what NFL teams run, either.

“When I stepped into the film room [in the NFL], I knew some things but I didn’t know all things,” Boyd said recently while driving around Greenville, S.C., heading to a workout. “That’s kind of where it is. You have to be drafted in the first or second round to not have the knowledge when you get there. If you have all the knowledge you need and you’re a late pick, you might have a chance to compete, to play.

Boyd touches on the difficulty of the transition from college-y spread attacks to the NFL being ramped up due to teams being unwilling to sit quarterback draftees and wait for them to learn the craft.

“What we did [offensively at Clemson], some of it does translate to the NFL, some of it doesn’t, to be completely honest. And that’s the only, to be honest, downside of some of the spread offense. Obviously you can put up some gaudy numbers, there’s some highly talented, high-level players playing in spread offenses, but the reality of it is there are a handful of teams in the NFL that are only, completely spread. And the problem with going to the NFL is that the way of thinking has changed. Quarterbacks now are expected to come in right away and play. It didn’t used to be like that. Teams obviously thought I was going to be a project, one that was going to take too long compared to the other guys.”

While Boyd raises some legitimate points, it is also worth noting that he probably was not going to be a top NFL prospect anyhow due to limited physical stature, arm strength and how he wilted in games against elite defensive talent. Boyd’s supporting cast now populates the NFL and it’s fair to conclude that his gaudy numbers were more about them than him. A far better test will case will be his Tigers successor, Deshaun Watson, a far more talented quarterback having even more success in the Tigers’ system than Boyd did.

Opposing recruiters no doubt point to Boyd setting Clemson and ACC records and yet not getting a sniff in the NFL. But the response from Clemson and the other schools running more extreme versions of the spread is the same:

If you can play, the NFL will want you regardless of the system.

Though NFL teams certainly would prefer if their quarterbacks didn’t have to be taught the basics, that theory may be true. Cam Newton played in a similar setup at Auburn as Clemson’s. The Tennessee Titans picked Marcus Mariota No. 2 overall in the 2015 draft out of Oregon’s spread-option offense. Goff is about to be the No. 1 or 2 pick. Interestingly, more elite quarterback recruits seem to be picking spread teams than ever before.

Colleges have done a better job of adapting to the high school game than the NFL has adapted to the changing college game. While picking one of the more extreme college systems is probably a bad career choice for an elite QB looking to make the NFL, it’s also not necessarily a death knell. And if more elite recruits pick college-style offenses, the NFL will have more incentive to adapt to the talent coming from these schemes than it does now.