Murphy: With Wentz deal, Eagles' Roseman buys himself three years – Philly.com (blog)

A cynic would start by pointing out that, in addition to acquiring an immensely talented but risk-laden quarterback, Howie Roseman effectively secured himself a three-year contract extension when he agreed to trade four picks to the Browns for the No. 2 overall selection in next week’s draft.

Rather than tying his personal fate to his ability to use the next two drafts to stabilize his current roster by finding the cornerback, tackle, and pass rusher it needs, Roseman instead attached it to a rookie quarterback who, he hopes, will not even begin to get a chance to prove him wrong until 2017.

Essentially, he begins his second stint as the Eagles’ personnel chief with a couple of mulligans: one for 2016, when he can sell the fan base and media on the coming of the savior, and one for 2017, when he and the savior will enjoy the obligatory one-year grace period that the general public allots every rookie quarterback. If Roseman’s top objective was to ensure himself three more years of salary, this was a stroke of genius.

Again, that’s just the cynical view. But since we are talking about a person who has established himself as one of the greatest executives in NFL history at keeping a job,  we would be remiss if we did not take a moment to consider each of his moves from the perspective of his unparalleled specialty. Even if you are a self-made person who would rather be known for your proven technical expertise and track record of production, Roseman’s ability to remain on top despite the absence of either warrants some respect, however grudging. So, props. 

What would the realist say? 

1) When considered in totality, the moves that we have witnessed over the last couple of months are not the kinds of moves that functional personnel departments make. 

2) If Carson Wentz reaches his ceiling, the Eagles will be a good team for a long time in spite of their personnel department. 

3) If Carson Wentz doesn’t reach his ceiling, the Eagles will be trapped in a death spiral from which there is no escape, and the rest of us will have to be content with the 80-degree October afternoons and beachfront property that global warming leaves us.

Let’s take each of these three points individually.

In the spirit of raging optimism, let’s start with No. 2. Yes, Wentz possesses that much ability, both as an athlete and as a passer. In late January, I watched every throw he attempted against the three best teams North Dakota State faced last season, and I immediately decided that some NFL team — probably many such teams — was going to covet him as the No. 1 player on their board by the time the pre-draft process was done. This was a couple of days before the Senior Bowl, after which Wentz began climbing up the draft boards (Kiper had him at No. 18 and Memphis QB Paxton Lynch at No. 19 beforehand, well behind Jared Goff). Wentz’s physical ability is that obvious. He really does have it all, and he has it in a combination that will mitigate much of the physical risk that exists with other similarly gifted players. 

Here’s what I wrote at the time:

From this quarterback snob’s perspective, there are two college guys well in front of the rest of the pack as we head into draft season, and both figure to be gone by the time the Eagles pick at No. 13. California’s Jared Goff is the safe choice: footwork, vision, pocket presence, accuracy, he’s a mature player.
North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz has the highest ceiling. I can’t remember a quarterback prospect who has his combination of accuracy and arm strength. That includes all of the can’t-missers from recent years. Just wait. It really is remarkable. His footwork is still a little raw, but you can tell he has a feel for the kind of throwing base and pocket mobility a quarterback needs at the next level. You might hear something about the length of his throwing motion, but it appears to these eyes that he has a plenty-quick enough release, particularly when the situation dictates that he has one. And he generates a tremendous amount of power in those situations. Not Michael Vick flick-of-the-wrist power, but think along those lines. Oh, and he’s mobile too. But his biggest weakness is an important one. He simply hasn’t been forced to pay attention to all three levels of the defense at the same time, given the quality of competition he was playing in college. Drafting him will require two of three things:
1) Faith that he can learn to see all three levels of the field and not just the immediate surroundings of his first read. 2) A strong offensive coaching staff that can help him refine his footwork and improve his internal clock and pocket awareness. 3) A quarterback-friendly scheme with intuitive progressions that more often than not require him only to hit the guy in space (cough, cough, Chip Kelly, cough, cough).

My initial comparison was a more accurate, less explosive (as a runner) Cam Newton. The more I’ve watched him, the more I’ve thought that a better comp is a faster, less polished Aaron Rodgers. His arm is that good. And, as is his ability to keep plays alive and throw accurately from all angles and body positions. When Doug Pederson watched him on film, I’m positive he saw a guy who was tailor made for some of the zone read/read-option concepts he had Alex Smith running against the Patriots in the playoffs. When he met him in person, I’m sure Pederson met a guy who he felt was hard working, receptive to instruction, and mentally tough. So, for example, the footwork and balance while dropping back and moving around the pocket would be something that Pederson would have little trouble refining in his work with Wentz.

Truth is, there is very little question about Wentz’s talent. The Eagles are not drafting him hoping that he will be able to improve upon or compensate for glaring deficits in certain areas. For example, the Panthers drafted Cam Newton hoping that his ability as a runner would make up for his raw footwork and inconsistent accuracy. Meanwhile, the Redskins drafted Robert Griffin hoping his speed, accuracy, quick release and playmaking ability would make up for his questionable size, strength and unfamiliarity with pro-style concepts. 

In the middle of Newton and Griffin, one might place a guy like Ryan Tannehill, who might be the best comparison of the raw product that the Eagles are actually getting. Put Tannehill at NDSU instead of the SEC, and I suspect he’d have looked a lot like Wentz did at North Dakota State. Wentz has a much stronger arm and throws a better deep ball, but they are comparable on a number of other levels, in terms of both their physical tools and their limited playing experience. But I would argue that Wentz’s risk profile is greater than that of even Tannehill because Wentz simply was not in situations that enabled him to show how he would perform when he was required to make crisp, accurate throws while paying attention to all three levels of the defense (pass rush, under coverage, over coverage) and identifying the proper decision to make. That’s not an indictment of his offensive scheme or his ability. Rather, that was just the reality at North Dakota State, which was far superior to most of its opponents.

Wentz simply did not need to make the kind of decisions, read the kind of coverages, weigh the kinds of choices that he will need to make/read/weigh on every snap at the NFL level. Most times, his first read was open. Most times, the speed of the opponent was such that he only had to worry about one defender being within striking distance of the ball or his target. That’s the biggest difference between I-AA and I-A and the NFL. The speed at every position increases dramatically between each level. And that speed is something that you simply cannot adapt to without first having faced it. That’s why even a guy like Peyton Manning, one of the smartest, most intuitive, most mature-beyond-years draft picks in NFL history can come out of the toughest amateur conference in the nation and still lead the NFL in interceptions his rookie season. With guys like Manning, Luck, Eli, and Phillip Rivers, you can project a little better how they will make the transition, because of the speed they faced at the college level. Wentz was rarely on the field with even one other player who will start in the NFL. 

Pederson surely thinks he can teach Wentz to adapt, because that is how coaches think. Roseman-Lurie can talk themselves into believing that what they saw with their own two eyes on film and in person suggests Wentz is a good bet to adapt. But the reality is, some guys are able to adapt, and some guys aren’t, and the only way to find out is to face a live pass rush and a live secondary. And the reality of that is that Wentz will not face either until he actually starts a regular season game for the Eagles. And that is a huge, huge, huge unknown, which is why the Eagles were the only team willing to trade what they did to find out, and why two other teams who needed a quarterback even worse than them decided to pass on Wentz, even though they would not have had to sacrifice the draft picks to find out. That’s why this move is little more than a pure gamble. There is a huge part of Wentz’s game that is pure projection. If you were drafting for a 7-on-7 league, he and Luck would be the top two QB prospects since Peyton. But the NFL is full-contact 11-on-11. It will be three years before we even begin to understand the ramifications of Wednesday’s move. When the days of reckoning arrives, though, the realization will be swift and dramatic, and it will leave the Eagles in one of two places, heading in two different directions fast. The only thing that’s guaranteed is three more years of salary for the man who made the move. 

Published: April 21, 2016 — 10:54 AM EDT | Updated: April 21, 2016 — 11:28 AM EDT
Philadelphia Daily News

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