Five reasons the Panthers screwed up in dumping Josh Norman
Dave Gettleman of the Carolina Panthers is a very good general manager. Even good general managers made mistakes.
That’s what rescinding cornerback Josh Norman’s franchise tag looks like. That news shocked the NFL on Wednesday. It’s incredibly rare. The Philadelphia Eagles did it twice, in 2002 with linebacker Jeremiah Trotter and in 2005 with defensive tackle Corey Simon. Now it has happened with Norman. Teams are already interested in Norman with the San Francisco 49ers emerging as an early favorite to land the surprise free agent, Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson reported.
None of this really makes sense on the surface. This is one of those, “There must be more to the story” stories, but nobody is talking yet. On the surface, it seems like a strange move, and a mistake by one of the league’s best GMs. Here are five reasons why it looks like the Panthers messed up:
The Panthers just lost a really good player
Let’s get one thing out of the way: Norman is good. Very good. I’m not saying Pro Football Focus always should be held as gospel, but that site had him giving up 49 catches, at 9.3 yards per catch, and an otherworldly 54.0 rating allowed on passes his way last season. And if you watched Norman play, you know how good he was last season. Maybe we can argue if he’s worth $14 million or $16 million per season, or wonder if he’ll be one of the best players in football again, or if he’s overrated because he plays more zone than man-to-man, but let’s not say he’s not a good cornerback. He’s fantastic. He was a first-team All-Pro last year and deserved it.
This is almost impossible to argue: The Panthers gave up one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in 2015 and got no immediate help in return. Maybe there are other factors which can turn that strange sentence into a reasonable one. Well, let’s see …
Norman was asking for too much money … so what?
This was the Panthers’ official statement on why they rescinded the tag.
“After a number of conversations with Josh’s agent we realized that a long-term deal was not attainable,” Gettleman said.
A few things don’t add up here.
A long-term deal is ideal for a franchise-tagged player, but far from necessary. Norman was locked in at a little less than $14 million for one year. He wasn’t going anywhere. There’s no harm, when you’re the defending NFC champions and have every right to think you should be in a Super Bowl again, to let a great player play for one year and figure it out after that.
Also, who cares what a player asks for in mid-April? Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller is asking for $22 million, which is a little crazy, but John Elway’s not cutting him loose. Norman could ask for a billion dollars a year and a private rocket ship to Mars, what difference does it make in April? It’s negotiating. Even if there’s zero chance of a long-term deal (and how many times have we seen negotiations look irreparable and somehow they’re magically fixed a short while later?), there’s really no harm in waiting. Because …
The Panthers had plenty of cap room
Carolina has some high-profile extensions coming up, namely to defensive tackles Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei. The money they saved rescinding Norman’s tag could go to those. OverTheCap.com had the Panthers with about $17.8 million in cap room before rescinding Norman’s tag. Spotrac had it at about $16.9 million. That’s plenty of cap room to get some extensions done. Now Carolina has more than $30 million in cap room, there aren’t any enticing free agents to use it on, and it just lost its best cornerback.
There is a fair argument to be made that paying Norman $14 million doesn’t fit great in the Panthers’ plan, with a scheme that puts a premium on pass rushers and not defensive backs. Then why didn’t they think of that in February, before they gave him the franchise tag? Six weeks into free agency, when there are no elite players left, Norman’s $14 million slot is a sunk cost. There’s no free agent out there who is going to be a big help to the NFC favorites, nobody worth $14 million at least. And it was just a one-year commitment to Norman on the tag. Next year, OverTheCap says Carolina has an estimated $70 million in cap room, so there’s no problem there.
At this point in the offseason, there’s no real benefit in that extra cap room created by dumping Norman.
The Panthers couldn’t be sure if Norman would have held out, and it might not have mattered anyway
Maybe Norman would have held out until late in the season, when he had to report for 2016 to count as an accrued season and become a free agent again next year. The concern that might happen is not worth dumping an All-Pro player over. The worst-case scenario would be getting Norman back for the final stretch of the season, when he would have to play well to make sure he gets paid the following offseason. That’s not too bad. And that’s a worst-case scenario. Dez Bryant threatened a holdout many times last offseason. He was signed in mid-July.
Also, Norman just played out his rookie contract, which was $2.21 million. We really, honestly think that he was going to hold out and pass up making $14 million in one year? Sure.
The notion that a holdout through training camp would ruin his season is asinine. Some holdouts lead to disappointing seasons. It didn’t for Mike Singletary with the 1985 Chicago Bears. Emmitt Smith was fine for the Dallas Cowboys after holding out through two games of the 1993 season. Darrelle Revis held out until Sept. 6 in 2010, and he was good for the New York Jets. Every one of those players was a first-team All-Pro the season they held out. Singletary and Smith won Super Bowls, and Revis ended up in an AFC championship game. There are many other examples of holdouts not harming a player. Norman could have been an All-Pro again after a holdout, and helped Carolina win a championship too.
Besides, again, a guy with a little more than $2 million in the bank off his NFL salary is going to turn down $14 million? Seems like a bluff the Panthers could have called down. And if you think Norman was going to come in purposely out of shape and play poorly before he was set to hit free agency again next offseason, you really haven’t thought this through too well.
if it’s for chemistry reasons, that might be an overreaction
Let’s pretend for a moment that Norman’s contract issue would have been a huge problem in the Panthers locker room. I’ve never bought much into this; it’s more likely we see negative results and apply a narrative after the fact, but whatever. Or let’s pretend that Norman wasn’t well liked by his teammates and Gettleman knew it. I don’t know that; we’re just pretending.
The Panthers still went 15-1 with Norman playing at an All-Pro level last season. He wasn’t a problem then. And it’s not going to be easy to replace him.
Chemistry is great, and important. Also important is having elite, blue-chip players. And Norman is certainly one. He might be less valuable because the Panthers are predominantly a zone defense, but he played very well in that scheme (it seems like we’ve had this argument before, with the great Richard Sherman and the Seattle Seahawks). In Carolina’s scheme, he was arguably the best cornerback in the NFL last season. I’d argue he was the best defensive player in the NFL last season. Whoever the Panthers use to replace him will not play as well.
Maybe “chemistry” overcomes that. Better be a heck of a lot of chemistry to do so.
So let’s sum up.
The Panthers had a blue-chip, All-Pro cornerback who was contractually bound to playing for them in 2016. He might have held out — even though it’s hard to believe someone slated to make seven times their career earnings in one year would do so — though there’s nothing that says he couldn’t have held out for a while and still continued at an All-Pro level during the season. The Panthers’ only benefit now from dumping Norman was maybe chemistry and salary-cap room, and the former is dubious and the latter was probably unnecessary. Basically, unless there’s a lot more to the story we haven’t heard, the Panthers let go one of their best players for no good reason and got nothing in return to positively impact a team favored to win the NFC again.
I don’t get it.
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
