By the Numbers: Superior Strength of Schedule
The release of the NFL schedule opens the floodgates for mainstream networks to opine on who was helped or hurt most by the new schedule. A key focus this year, both during the primetime schedule release shows and among NFL fans and analysts in its aftermath, is the Strength of Schedule for the 32 NFL teams. Unfortunately, while Strength of Schedule is a valuable discussion point when examining and forecasting the 2016 NFL season, virtually all entities discussing it are doing the viewers and fans a disservice by referencing irrelevant information in a completely improper manner.
At my website (Sharp Football Analysis.com) I attack the NFL from an analytical perspective, often using contrarian thinking to find edges. I created a fully interactive graphic to view customized Strength of Schedule by team and week, using the most optimal method to calculate Strength of Schedule available. And because it’s an interactive project, the visitor controls the ability to view rankings over any range of weeks they choose. I have not seen anyone else calculate Strength of Schedule in the manner which I use, but before we get into specifics of my method, let’s examine Strength of Schedule in general.
I have long held the position that Strength of Schedule is overvalued before the season but undervalued during the season. We will hear many discussions between now and the start of the season about who is playing the most difficult schedule this year. But once the season gets underway, seemingly all that discussion ends. One month into the season, networks will likely discuss the teams who are dominating and their stats, without once factoring in the caliber of their opponents. For example, the Seahawks should start well, playing the Dolphins, Rams, 49ers and Jets but those same Jets have the most brutal start, facing the Bengals, Bills, Chiefs and Seahawks. Facing that slate which features one solid defensive team after another, it’s very likely the Jets’ offense starts off slowly. But it’s highly unlikely that in Week 5, the networks are factoring that aspect into the equation, and instead will simply rail on the Jets and their impotent offense. In my sports betting experience, I’ve found it exceedingly helpful to strongly account for in-season Strength of Schedule (even though the mainstream media does not).
However, if we are going to discuss Strength of Schedule, it needs to be done using the most relevant and accurate information possible. Despite preaching for the opposite for several years now, I have yet to see one media outlet calculate Strength of Schedule using a method other than prior year win percentages for current year opponents. As an example, they take a team like the Buccaneers and their 2016 schedule, and assign records of 15-1 for both meetings with the Panthers, and 4-12 for the meeting with the Cowboys, as those were both team’s records in 2015. But sitting here today, does anyone really see the Panthers going 15-1 again this year? Does anyone see Tony Romo breaking his clavicle in Week 3 and the team going 4-12 this year? While anything is possible, you could make a lot of money betting “yes” on both outcomes this year. The manner in which they calculate Strength of Schedule is embarrassingly bad.
Additionally, the NFL intentionally tries to create more parity by scheduling teams to play easier or harder opposition based on how they fared the prior year. Taking the Cowboys as an example: after winning the NFC East in 2014 with a 12-4 record, Dallas had to face all other division winners from the NFC last year. But after going 4-12 in 2015 and finishing last in the NFC East, Dallas faces the other last place teams from the NFC this year, such as the 49ers, Buccaneers and Bears. The NFL scheduling rules try to help Dallas this year perform better by giving them easier opponents.
This makes it even more asinine to look to the prior year’s records to project the current year Strength of Schedule. In 2016, Dallas is not playing a 1st place schedule (as they did in 2015) and they likely won’t play 80% of their games without Tony Romo (as they did in 2015). So why should we care what their record was in 2015 when calculating 2016 strength of schedule?
The solution is easy: use the forecasted 2016 wins from the current betting market. Sports books project win totals for every team, and some early numbers are out now. As more and more respectable sports books release their own numbers this spring, more and more money will be bet into the market. This creates market efficiency, as the linemakers adjust their numbers based on the volume as well as respect they have for certain money which is bet. Before the games kickoff in September, there will be no better projection for how the 32 NFL teams will fare than what the betting markets indicate. That is not to say they will be accurate or correct on each team. Every year there are players and teams who vastly exceed or fail to meet expectations, as well as injuries. However, using forecasted records for a team’s opponents is certainly a far superior method to use as the basis of Strength of Schedule calculations in comparison with prior year records.
The below analysis, as well as the interactive graphics found at my website, are rooted in using the betting market to predict Strength of Schedule. It’s also notable that when calculating my numbers, I take into consideration the vigorish (aka “juice”) taken by the sports books. For example, while the Chiefs are set at 9 wins, to bet the “over” you must lay -180 odds ($180 to win $100), as opposed to the Cowboys who are likewise set at 9 wins, but at +115 odds, meaning $100 wins $115). Thus, the linemaker does not actually view both teams as identical 9 win teams. Finally, another manner to calculate Strength of Schedule is to use the betting market’s power rankings, which equate a number, aka a power ranking, with the strength of an individual team. I’ve used these in the past to create Strength of Schedule, and the results were quite similar to using forecasted wins, and both were far superior and more accurate than using prior year win rates.
Examining the 2016 Strength of Schedule using the most accurate calculation method, here are the most difficult (#1) and easiest (#32) schedules that the 32 NFL teams will face this year:
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. New York Jets
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Washington Redskins
5. Los Angeles Rams
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7. New Orleans Saints
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Buffalo Bills
10. Houston Texans
11. Denver Broncos
12. Philadelphia Eagles
13. Cleveland Browns
14. Jacksonville Jaguars
15. Detroit Lions
16. Miami Dolphins
17. Tennessee Titans
18. Oakland Raiders
18. San Diego Chargers
20. Indianapolis Colts
21. Seattle Seahawks
22. Arizona Cardinals
23. New England Patriots
24. Chicago Bears
25. Kansas City Chiefs
26. Baltimore Ravens
27. Cincinnati Bengals
28. Green Bay Packers
29. Carolina Panthers
30. Pittsburgh Steelers
31. New York Giants
32. Dallas Cowboys
Note: On this page, you can spatially view the rankings, as well as select certain weeks to examine the most difficult stretches (which team starts with the hardest schedule, which team ends with the easiest schedule, etc.).
Now that we have a basis to accurately calculate Strength of Schedule in a meaningful manner, and view the results visually, let’s examine each team and share some interesting schedule notes, hardships, or stretches they must face in 2016.
