5-on-5: Best, worst, predictions for West playoffs
Now that we’re through the first weekend of the 2016 NBA Playoffs, what stood out? Were there any surprises? Our 5-on-5 crew weighs in on the West.
1. West player of the weekend?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Stephen Curry. Not only was he scintillating when he was on the floor, demoralizing the Rockets into shouting fits in their huddles, but when he went out with an ankle injury, the Rockets experienced a brief burst of adrenaline as a result of his absence. That, folks, is power.
Marc Stein, ESPN: Chris Paul. We were subjected to a four-game sweep of weekend routs in the West because CP3 immediately shifted the Clippers into top gear in the one series opener that was supposed to be close. The hot stat going around the office: Paul either scored or assisted on 52 of L.A.’s 85 points when he was on the court in Game 1.
Royce Young, ESPN.com: Stephen Curry. So he only played 20 minutes. And he hurt his ankle and is questionable for Game 2. But in those 20 minutes, he was human electricity again, scoring 24 points which featured a barrage of missile-seeking 3s in the first quarter. Chris Paul was terrific, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were great, but Curry packed about as much punch as anyone in those 20 brief minutes.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Stephen Curry. With apologies to Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul and Oklahoma City’s stars, Curry is the answer despite being limited to 20 minutes by an ankle injury. That was all the time Curry needed to make five 3-pointers, score 24 points and have the Warriors outscore the Rockets by 28 with him on the floor.
Michael Wright, ESPN.com: This is a tough one because Chris Paul put together a strong performance in producing a double-double for the Clippers. But Kawhi Leonard gets the nod here. Not to be a homer, but you can’t deny Leonard’s impact on Sunday’s 106-74 win over the Memphis Grizzlies. In addition to scoring a game-high 20 points, Leonard nabbed four steals (as part of San Antonio’s 13 on the night) and blocked three shots. The defense, led by Leonard, is what finally got the Spurs rolling offensively.
2. West’s most disappointing player?
Elhassan: The Dallas Mavericks‘ and Houston Rockets‘ entire rosters get the award en masse, much like the time we sent four Hawks to the All-Star game for their group effort. This is why we were denied seeing the Jazz in the playoffs? To see these teams get smacked from the get-go and lay down?
Stein: James Harden and Dwight Howard have to share this one. The disconnect between those two was plainly visible in Game 1 of the Golden State series, which is far more worrisome than the anomaly of Harden failing to earn a single trip to the free-throw line.
Young: Can I cheat and just say any Dallas Maverick not named Dirk? The Big German scored 18 points on 7-of-15 shooting. The rest of his team scored 52 while going 18-of-69. No other teammate scored in double figures. The next leading scorer was Dwight Powell with eight, and he got all of those in garbage time when the Mavs were down 40.
Pelton: James Harden. Harden’s task isn’t easy against a Warriors team with multiple capable wing defenders and great help in the paint. Still, for the Rockets to have any chance in this series, Harden will have to do better than 17 points on 19 shot attempts and six turnovers — starting with getting to the free-throw line, which he didn’t do at all Saturday.
Wright: I’m going with two here: Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. I’ll lean more toward McCollum, though, because he scored only nine points in the loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. Lillard and McCollom averaged a combined 45.9 points during the regular season, which ranked as the third-most by any duo in the NBA. They combined to hit just 10-of-28 against the Clippers. Those numbers have to improve if Portland is to have a legitimate shot at winning this series.
3. Most important thing that happened in the West?
Elhassan: Curry’s injury — not because it will impact his play moving forward (it doesn’t appear to be serious), but because it is a subtle reminder of the fragile nature of any team’s dominance.
Stein: Given the limited options, let’s go with Steph Curry’s ankle tweak. It’s the closest thing to fresh drama that we got from the first four games in the West, though I suspect he’ll play in Game 2 and put us back on the hunt for something to talk about.
Young: Potentially, it’s Curry’s injury. But that’s a wait-and-see thing. Postseasons so often can be swung by an injury, as evidenced by the Cavaliers last season, the Thunder the two seasons earlier, and on and on. The Warriors don’t seem panicked, and with the gift of the hapless Rockets as an opponent, there might be plenty of opportunity to get him rest and recovery in the opening round anyway.
Pelton: Honestly, it might be Curry tweaking his ankle. While the injury appears unlikely to be a factor beyond the next couple days, I’m not sure anything else that happened in the West this weekend will have a lasting effect, either.
Wright: That’s got to be the injury to Stephen Curry. It’s not even close, regardless of the severity of the injury. Curry is questionable for Game 2, and you’ve got to think Houston now believes it has a real shot at knocking off the No. 1 seed. I’ll guarantee you that everybody in the West is paying close attention to how Curry’s situation pans out.
4. West Game 2 you’re looking forward to most?
Elhassan: Blazers-Clippers, mainly because it’s the only series that I believe can give us some entertaining and competitive play from both sides.
Stein: Game 2 of Warriors-Rockets — just to get a reading on the State of Steph.
Young: Clippers-Blazers. The other three Game 1s had a combined margin of 96 points, or an average of 32. And it’s a little hard to see how that changes much for those three series. The Mavs got even less healthy with J.J. Barea out and Deron Williams questionable, the Grizzlies have so little left, and the Rockets are still the Rockets. So by default, let’s go with the game that was a 20-point margin.
Pelton: Clippers-Blazers. Barring injury, this is the only series with any chance at being competitive. I don’t think this series is as lopsided as the Clippers’ 20-point Game 1 margin would indicate, and Portland can turn things around with more accurate 3-point shooting in Game 2.
Wright: I’m interested to see what happens in Los Angeles in Game 2. Portland is 3-26 all-time in playoff series when it loses Game 1, so the Blazers definitely have a difficult task ahead against a Clippers squad that is now 6-0 since Blake Griffin returned to the mix. If Los Angeles continues to play the way it did in Game 1, the Clippers figure to make plenty of noise in the West.
5. Your one prediction that will surprise people is …
Elhassan: None of my predictions are surprises. Let’s get to the second round already.
Stein: It would be a surprise, based on the available evidence, if the Rockets, Grizzlies, Mavericks and Blazers combined for more than the one win they managed as a group during the regular season against their respective first-round opponents. And, for the record, I’m not predicting they will.
Young: The Blazers will win Game 2. I had the series going seven games, and while Game 1 was a pretty disappointing night for Portland, if it’s going to get there the Blazers need to win Game 2. The Blazers still possess the firepower and youthful exuberance to push the Clippers. They just have to do simple things, like slow down Chris Paul, and make a ton of 3s. Nothing all that big.
Pelton: The seven times the Blazers intentionally fouled DeAndre Jordan in Game 1 proves to be the lowest total of the series.
Wright: We’ll finally see the Spurs play their best basketball of the season. Early on, the team was working through the kinks of implementing LaMarcus Aldridge. Now, the Spurs are struggling to find a rhythm after resting so many players at the end of March, which drastically changed lineups and altered chemistry. The Spurs are close, but we haven’t seen them play their best yet.
