5-on-5: Best, worst, predictions for East playoffs
We’re through the first weekend of the 2016 NBA Playoffs. What stood out? And what are we looking forward to next? Our 5-on-5 crew weighs in on the East.
1. East player of the weekend?
Chris Forsberg, ESPN.com: Paul George. George kicked in the postseason door with an absolutely dominant second half against the Raptors and produced the only lower-seed victory in a weekend where top seeds were typically dominant. What’s more, he did it on both ends of the floor and already has the Raptors questioning themselves.
Israel Gutierrez, ESPN.com: Paul George. Any upsets the Pacers pull off in these playoffs will be because of George. So his breaking free from the Raptors’ tough wing defense in the second half to finish with 33 points and six assists is exactly what Indiana needed to see.
Justin Verrier, ESPN.com: Hassan Whiteside. Paul George’s game was a masterpiece, but folk legend “Agent Block” has sent Charlotte into an existential crisis. The NBA’s blocks leader allowed Miami defenders to run the 3-happy Hornets off the arc and into the dreaded middle, and he also tallied a career high in muscle flexes en route to 21 of the Heat’s 56 points in the paint.
Michael Wells, ESPN.com: Welcome back to the playoffs, Luol Deng. The Miami forward went from being a former Heat killer to helping them look like they could make a deep run in the postseason in his first playoff game since the 2012-13 season. Deng scored 31 points on 11-of-13 shooting while also grabbing seven rebounds.
Brian Windhorst, ESPN.com: Paul George. In a triumphant return to the postseason, he put up 33 points on 22 shots and played a big role in shutting down DeMar DeRozan, leading the Pacers to the only road victory of the weekend. What else needs to be said?
2. East’s most disappointing player?
Forsberg: Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. The Raptors’ backcourt went a combined 8-of-32 (25 percent) from the field and 1-of-10 beyond the 3-point arc. Unacceptable for Toronto’s All-Star tandem. When you’re actively avoiding social media and deleting your Instagram account, you’ve had a rough weekend.
Gutierrez: Kyle Lowry, although he could easily be replaced by his backcourt mate, DeMar DeRozan — both underperformed in Game 1 against Indiana. Their offense felt forced, their decisions were a beat slow and their few open shots weren’t falling either. If the Raptors don’t recover from this, the feel-good story in Toronto will crumble pretty quickly.
Verrier: Kyle Lowry. The surly guard actually has something to be salty about. Lowry, the Raptors’ essential player, shot 3-for-13 (including 1-for-7 from 3) in a loss that officially takes the shine off a team expected in some quarters to be Cleveland’s fiercest competition in the East.
Wells: DeMar DeRozan. The All-Star guard was thoroughly outplayed by Indiana’s Paul George in the Raptors’ Game 1 loss. Toronto has little chance of getting out of the first round for the first time since the 2000-01 season if DeRozan continues to have 5-of-19 shooting performances in the series.
Windhorst: Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Wow, did these guys play tight. The issue of constantly losing in the first round really looks to be in their heads. The Pacers did a nice job keeping DeRozan off the line and keeping Lowry in front of them. But frankly, rookie Norman Powell looked more at ease in his first-ever playoff game than these Raptor leaders.
3. Most important thing that happened in the East?
Forsberg: Avery Bradley‘s hamstring injury. Not only did the Celtics let a winnable Game 1 slip away, they also likely lost Avery Bradley for the remainder of the series. Bradley led Boston in offensive and defensive ratings this season and was one of the few guys that could slow Jeff Teague.
Gutierrez: Avery Bradley getting hurt. It’s not that the Celtics were favored to make a Finals run or anything, but if we are going to find out how good the Celtics really are, or if their “superstar-free” roster can translate into playoff success, it’s going to be with Bradley on board. Now, Boston needs some luck just to get past the first round.
Verrier: Avery Bradley’s strained hamstring. Maybe the Celtics don’t need a nominal superstar, as their shooting shirts proudly proclaim, but their collective approach can surely use a harassing on-ball defender with a plus-4.2 net rating, per NBA.com/Stats (fourth-best among C’s regulars). You can come back from a loss more easily than a bum leg.
Wells: The loss of guard Avery Bradley (hamstring), likely for the rest of the first round, is devastating for Boston. He led the Celtics in minutes per game and was second in scoring, 3-point field goals per game and steals per game. The Celtics have to turn to rookies Terry Rozier and R.J. Hunter to fill Bradley’s void against an experienced Atlanta team.
Windhorst: Kevin Love had a huge fourth quarter, making two clutch 3-pointers and playing center effectively. Love’s late-game production has been a mystery for two seasons now. But wow, did he look fantastic Sunday. Considering his very limited postseason career, it could be argued that this was the most important performance of his career.
4. East Game 2 you’re looking forward to most?
Forsberg: Heat-Hornets. Miami bounced back nicely after that second-half collapse in Boston to end the regular season. It will be interesting to see whether Miami can dominate this first-round series and affirm its status as a legitimate contender (and a Miami-Cleveland series in the East finals would be intriguing for obvious reasons).
Gutierrez: Raptors-Pacers. Lowry said Saturday he “embarrassed” himself in last year’s playoffs against the Wizards. He lost weight and is at five percent body fat because he thought it would help him this time of year. If he doesn’t bounce back with a good Game 2, Raptors fans could lose faith in him for the long term. Some early-round pressure is always entertaining.
Verrier: Pistons-Cavaliers. Forget, for a moment, that any team other than the Cavs in the NBA Finals might qualify as human sacrifice. Like any good millennial, I want to be satisfied immediately, and the ultra-rare 1-8 upset, or even the threat of it, makes for delicious schadenfreude in what is otherwise a bore of a first round.
Wells: Raptors-Pacers. Toronto was the only Eastern Conference home team to lose Game 1. Losing both games at home will cause major panic inside the Raptors organization and make you think that they could get swept in the first round for the second straight season.
Windhorst: Pacers-Raptors. There’s an enormous amount of pressure on Toronto. They face the first must-win game of the playoffs. Congrats.
5. Your one prediction that will surprise people is …
Forsberg: Celtics-Hawks is going seven games. With Bradley out, many will assume that this series is over, and with the way Teague has attacked without Bradley on the floor, it seems like a fair assumption. But let’s see how Brad Stevens reacts. Boston’s third-year coach had some serious stubble at Sunday’s practice, suggesting he had spent a late night game-planning how Boston will adjust to losing its starting shooting guard. And Marcus Smart sounds mighty confident about his ability to help fill Bradley’s shoes.
Gutierrez: The Celtics will still make it out of the first round. Yeah, they’ll need some luck, like Kyle Korver continuing to shoot the way he did in Game 1 (1-for-10, 0-of-7 from 3), or maybe Paul Millsap having a foul-plagued night or two. But if any team can rally after the loss of a key figure, it’s the team that has so many key figures.
Verrier: The Heat will win the East. Recency bias? Somewhat. Trolling? Sure. But the Cavs’ reality show has been teetering all season, and giving up 101 points on 51 percent shooting to the second-worst offense in the playoffs certainly doesn’t quell concerns. Miami, meanwhile, eviscerated Charlotte by taking away everything it wanted to do. I’ll rent a bungalow with Amin on Heat Island.
Wells: Kevin Love finally moves to the forefront of the Cavs trio that also features LeBron James and Kyrie Irving by leading Cleveland in scoring by the end of their series against Detroit. His 28 points in Game 1 were second only to Irving’s 31.
Windhorst: I don’t make predictions. But keep an eye out for Andre Drummond to maybe guard a small forward or shooting guard at times in Game 2 in an effort to deal with Cavs’ small lineup. On the ABC telecast, Jeff Van Gundy was practically begging his brother to do it during the game, and I’m quite sure it was discussed in their postgame debriefing.
