Strike Zone: Notes: No Fastballs For Felix
I didn’t criticize the Twins for signing Byung Ho Park over the winter; he seemed like a pretty nice value, after all. I just didn’t think it was completely warranted with a perfectly fine DH already on the roster in Oswaldo Arcia.
Arcia, though, went into camp as an afterthought. He was guaranteed a roster spot because he was out of options, but he also wasn’t really in the Twins’ plans with corner outfielders Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario being looked at as two of the team’s most important players. Arcia started just once during the Twins’ season-opening nine-game losing streak, going 0-for-3 with a walk in a shutout loss. His big break came Friday, a result of Byron Buxton’s hand injury. He went 0-for-4 then, but he hit a go-ahead homer in the eighth inning Saturday and then had the game-winning hit in the 10th inning as part of a 3-for-5 day Sunday.
With Buxton returning to health, the Twins have some decisions to make. Buxton has looked overmatched in the early going; he’s hitting .154/.185/.231 with 13 strikeouts in 26 at-bats. However, the Twins are a far, far better defensive team with Buxton in center and Rosario in left than they would be with Rosario in center and Arcia in left. Maybe they could live with the latter arrangement if they had a strong right fielder, but Sano is playing out of position there.
An Arcia trade still seems like it’d be best for everyone. Put in the right situation, he could be a top-30 fantasy outfielder. I do think the Twins would be better off with Arcia over Park at DH, but it’s also well worth it for them to be patient with Park, given the excellent power he possesses. There aren’t any other great scenarios here for Arcia. Even if they send down Buxton, it’d probably be to play Max Kepler in center. That’s a downgrade defensively, but not nearly the same as putting Rosario in center and Arcia in left. That just doesn’t seem feasible, especially given the modest strikeout rates possessed by the starting staff.
AL Notes
– The Twins even went and signed David Murphy in the midst of their losing streak, which could be taken as another illustration of how little they think (or thought) of Arcia. Murphy is capable of helping a few teams out there, but the Twins aren’t one of them. He certainly shouldn’t get any at-bats that could go to Arcia instead.
-Minnesota is going with Kevin Jepsen in the closer’s role while Glen Perkins nurses a sore shoulder. Perkins is supposed to return next week and should get his job back. Perkins, though, seems like a threat to keep breaking down. As a result, Trevor May needs to be watched closely; he should be a better reliever than Jepsen going forward.
– Felix Hernandez is throwing 88-92 mph and he’s walked 13 in 18 innings, yet here he is with a 1.00 ERA after three starts. The dip is a pretty big concern, especially since Hernandez doesn’t have a history of starting off slower and building up. Right now, his average fastball is down over two mph from 2015. If it stays there, he’ll have lost as much velocity in one season as he did from 2010 to 2015 (PITCHf/x puts his average fastball at 94.4 mph in 2010, 92.1 last year and 89.9 so far this year). He’s compensated by throwing changeups and curves more than ever before. Those are two top-notch pitches, and he can continue to keep offenses off balance while overusing them. However, it means he’s throwing more balls outside of the strike zone and using more pitches to get his outs. I don’t think Hernandez is going to crash and burn; I imagine he’ll get a little more on his fastball as the season goes on. However, I don’t think I’d rank him among the top 20 fantasy starters going forward. I had him 15th entering the season.
– 10 Rays players ended Sunday’s game with at least 20 at-bats. Steven Souza Jr. is the only one in the group sporting an average over .270 or an OPS over .800. Seven are hitting below .230, with Logan Morrison (.063/.118/.063), Brad Miller (.114/.184/.257) and Kevin Kiermaier (.172/.314/.207) off to especially tough starts. Unlike some other teams getting antsy with struggling players, the Rays haven’t resorted to taking regulars out of the lineup or even switching the order around overly much, though one wonders if Morrison will bat second again anytime soon. Miller had a big home run Saturday to help his cause and Kiermaier’s defense will ensure his presence in the lineup no matter how long he slumps, but Morrison would be vulnerable to losing playing time, especially if Steve Pearce can get it going. Of course, I’d like to see Brandon Guyer play more (for the third or fourth year in a row), but that would probably mean taking Desmond Jennings out of the lineup and he, at least, has been adequate of late. The Rays will probably stick with the status quo for at least another week.
– Joey Rickard parlayed his big spring into the starting nod in left field for the Orioles, and he’s still hitting .304 at the moment. However, after amassing a 10/8 K/BB ratio in 72 plate appearances in Grapefruit League action, he’s at 10/2 in 50 regular-season plate appearances, leaving him with a modest .320 OBP. Worse, both Nolan Reimold (.389/.389/.889 in 18 AB) and Hyun Soo Kim (.500/.625/.500 in 6 AB) have done well in their limited action, so playing time is probably going to be divvied up further. Anyone who picked up Rickard in mixed leagues hoping for cheap steals might want to move on. He hasn’t even attempted one this month after going 5-for-6 in the spring.
– Ian Desmond has opened his Rangers career with a .109 average and no extra-base hits in 46 at-bats. His struggles don’t really come as a surprise; he’d declined three straight seasons coming into the year, he’s playing in the AL for the first time and he’s focused some of his attention on learning two new positions in the outfield. If Desmond weren’t shortstop eligible, he might even be droppable in mixed leagues. Desmond, though, is shortstop eligible, and he’s still a pretty good bet to approach 20 homers and 15 steals this year, though that could change if Josh Hamilton comes back strong in a month or two. I think he’ll be an asset for fantasy teams in the end. The Rangers, on the other hand, really should have signed a left fielder to play left field.
– The Indians will activate Lonnie Chisenhall (forearm) on Wednesday and could bring Michael Brantley (shoulder) back this weekend, setting them up with outfields of Brantley-Tyler Naquin-Chisenhall against righties and Brantley-Rajai Davis–Marlon Byrd against lefties. Naquin barely got to play early on, as the Indians kept facing lefties when they weren’t being rained out. He is 5-for-15 in limited action and he’s a better defender than Davis, so I doubt he’ll be sent down to open up a spot. Collin Cowgill will be demoted, and the Indians can also go from 13 to 12 pitchers.
– I’ve fired off more tweet complaints about the Jays’ leadoff situation than is warranted; it bothered me less that Kevin Pillar was leading off for the team than that manager John Gibbons wasn’t telling the truth when he said there’d be competition. I’m pretty sure the Jays’ best option, if they’re not willing to lead off Troy Tulowitzki, is to start Michael Saunders there against righties and Pillar versus lefties. Since they won’t do that, either, I’d say they’re better off going with Saunders as the regular option. Still, I had the two projected with equally subpar OBPs this year. Since Gibbons made the switch on Sunday, Saunders now makes for a solid play in mixed leagues. Pillar loses value, but it probably won’t take much for Gibbons to go back to him, as it’s so clearly his preference.
– Aaron Sanchez threw nearly 90 percent fastballs in limiting the Red Sox to one run in seven innings on Sunday. It’s great that he can do that and have it work, but it’s far from ideal for his future as a starter. Sanchez focused on improving his changeup this spring in order to persuade the Blue Jays to put him in the rotation. His fastball is overpowering — he tops out at 98 mph and still gets a little sink on it — but I’m still not convinced he’s going to be an above average starter if he can’t rely on his secondary pitches. As nice as the end result was Sunday, he still walked four batters and got just six swings and misses.
– Blake Swihart isn’t a bad catcher at all, but he’s not in Christian Vazquez’s league defensively and the Red Sox decided it was worth giving up offense to make the switch last week. The stunning thing is that Vazquez made it all of the way back from Tommy John surgery so quickly; he’s throwing as well as ever just 12 months after the procedure. Matt Wieters had his almost two years ago and still isn’t completely right. Unfortunately, Vazquez probably won’t be any better of a hitter now than he was pre-surgery, making him a fringe option in two-catcher mixed leagues. One has to feel bad for Swihart, who did such a capable job as a rookie last year. He’s one of the game’s top 20 or so catchers, but the Red Sox won’t be quick to trade him. Instead, he’ll get some time in left field in Triple-A.
– I’m happy to see the Astros treating Evan Gattis as a backup catcher; he wasn’t a very good thrower in Atlanta, but he still wasn’t a major liability behind the plate. He can’t be any worse than Hank Conger was as Jason Castro’s backup last year. It’s also pretty questionable whether Gattis is good enough offensively to last in the majors as a designated hitter/left fielder/first baseman. Preston Tucker might be the better option as a DH against right-handers and the Astros will need to make room for A.J. Reed in June, so Gattis could be looking at a whole lot less playing time as the season goes on. For the short term, he’ll get a lot more valuable for fantasy purposes once he gains catcher eligibility. For the long term, though, he still looks like a shaky investment.
– With a .182 average after nine games in the minors, Cameron Maybin (shoulder) hasn’t been able to convince the Tigers he’s ready to come off the DL. Maybe it’ll happen this weekend, but fantasy leaguers should keep him benched for one more week.
– There are quite a few things I think the Angels should be doing differently. One of them is playing Geovany Soto more than Carlos Perez. If they ever go that route, Soto should be a fine option in two-catcher mixed leagues. We’re not there yet, though.
Two-Start Starters
– There isn’t any one standout grab for mixed leaguers looking for two-start starters this week, but here are my preferred streaming options, in order: Phil Hughes (vs. Brewers, at Nationals), Adam Conley (vs. Nationals, at Giants), Ervin Santana (vs. Angels, vs. Rangers), Jerad Eickhoff (vs. Mets, at Brewers), Tanner Roark (at Marlins, vs. Twins).
NL Notes
– Vincent Velasquez’s coming out party will go down as one of the performances of the year, and he should remain a fantasy asset for the rest of the first half. I’m not sure what we’ll see from him after that. Velasquez threw 77 innings in 2014 and 89 last year. He’s already had one Tommy John surgery, and it’s believed that concerns about his elbow led to the Ken Giles trade being adjusted (though it wasn’t enough to keep the Phillies from wanting him). Going into the spring, I thought the Phillies would probably send Velasquez down so as to manage his innings. Obviously, they didn’t go that route, but it’s still really hard to imagine they’ll let Velasquez throw 180 innings this year even if he does stay completely healthy. I pegged him at 130 in my projections (which is why he was my No. 86 starter and not in the top 60). By all means, keep using Velasquez in mixed leagues for now. But don’t go trading for him thinking he’ll still be useful in August and September.
– The Braves aren’t going to need a closer often, but Arodys Vizcaino would seem to have the edge on Jason Grilli after getting four outs for the save in the team’s first win of the season on Friday. With Vizcaino unavailable, Grilli came back on Saturday and got a save of his own, but he then blew an opportunity Sunday with Vizcaino again being kept out of the mix. If the Braves asked my advice, I’d say stick with Grilli in order to A) protect Vizcaino’s arm, B) keep down Vizcaino’s future arbitration salaries and C) aid Grilli’s trade value. The Braves have never come to me for tips, though. Vizcaino has one of the league’s best arms, and Fredi Gonzalez, left to his own devices, probably should go ahead and pick the guy who offers his team the best chance of winning.
– The Marlins were so quick to yank Marcell Ozuna from the second spot in their lineup that one wonders why they went that route in the first place. It was a boon to Ozuna’s potential fantasy value, but Martin Prado always made more sense. They’re 3-7 after getting swept by the lowly Braves, so it’s not too early to wonder what the next change will be. Yanking Tom Koehler or Jarrod Cosart from the rotation and giving Justin Nicolino a try is one possibility. Nicolino has little fantasy upside, but there’s a good chance he’d outpitch Koehler. He has a 3.00 ERA after three starts in Triple-A.
– J.J. Hoover had a 52/31 K/BB ratio and gave up seven homers in 64 1/3 innings last year, but the Reds handed him the closer’s role after trading Aroldis Chapman and they’re not letting a little thing like a 17.18 ERA to open the season force them to call their decisions into question. In their defense, it’s not like they have any great alternatives. I thought Jumbo Diaz was the better option going in and I’m still pretty sure he is now, but he doesn’t project as a significantly above average reliever. The other alternatives are Caleb Cotham, Blake Wood and Tony Cingrani. Cotham was acquired in the Chapman trade and he’s yet to allow an earned run in six innings, but his 90-94 mph fastball doesn’t scream closer. Wood is back throwing 93-97 mph now, so he’s a sleeper, even if he was never very good in the first place. Cingrani still has the most upside in the pen, but he needs to take a real step forward before there’s any chance of him closing (the Reds also have financial incentive for keeping him away from the role). I’m guessing Diaz gets the nod once Hoover loses the job.
– A healthy Billy Hamilton has been out of the starting lineup in favor of Scott Schebler the last two days, even though he has a .313 OBP and a .407 slugging percentage to go along with some of the game’s best center field defense. Despite the bar being set incredibly low, I’d say Bryan Price is actively regressing as a manager.
– The Brewers have baffled me with their plans in center field. Kirk Nieuwenhuis entered camp as their best option against right-handers, but Keon Broxton got off to the hot start in spring training and it made sense to give him a shot in what is so clearly a rebuilding year. Instead, the Brewers started off giving time to Ramon Flores, who wouldn’t seem to have the range for center (or the bat for a corner). Now Broxton is in Triple-A after just 18 plate appearances. His results were terrible — he was 0-for-16 with 11 strikeouts and two walks — but it was 18 plate appearances. Flores, meanwhile, is just 3-for-21 himself. Nieuwenhuis, a non-factor in week one, has gotten a couple of starts now and 3-for-12 with a homer and four RBI. I imagine we’ll be seeing more of Nieuwenhuis over Flores. Unfortunately, both are left-handers (Broxton was the righty), leaving the Brewers without a sensible platoon. If Nieuwenhuis turns into a lineup fixture, his power and speed could make him worth playing in deeper mixed leagues.
– While Danny Espinosa continues to slump, Trea Turner is hitting .424/.25/.606 with four steals in 33 at-bats for Triple-A Syracuse. It certainly wasn’t the Nationals’ plan to promote him so early, but they might consider it, especially since Michael Taylor hasn’t been looking like much of a leadoff man while filling in for Ben Revere (I like Taylor and he has extra fantasy value in that spot, but he would make a lot more sense hitting seventh). Working against the idea of a change is that the Nationals are 9-2 with their current alignment. Maybe if Espinosa doesn’t start hitting this week. After all, it’s not just a two-week slump for him; Espinosa came in at .139/.244/.306 this spring, too.
– Because the Cardinals are the Cardinals, both Aledmys Diaz and Greg Garcia have been outstanding in Ruben Tejada’s absence, leaving the team with a difficult call to make as Tejada returns from the DL on Monday. I’m guessing that Diaz sticks and Garcia gets sent down.
– The Phillies refused to use Darin Ruf in the outfield this spring, but there he was Saturday against Max Scherzer and the Nationals because Peter Bourjos and Cedric Hunter have been so poor offensively. Of course, Ruf, whose primary role is to platoon with Ryan Howard, isn’t really any great shakes himself against right-handers and he is a clear downgrade defensively. The Phillies need to look elsewhere for decent corner outfield options. Ideally, Darnell Sweeney would get hot in Triple-A and earn a callup. Will Venable could also serve as a stopgap, but he is 3-for-24 so far at Lehigh Valley. Cam Perkins has been the Ironpigs’ best outfielder so far, with a .400/.400/.800 line in 20 at-bats, but the 25-year-old doesn’t have a track record that suggests he’d hit in the majors. If only the Phillies could trade for Arcia…
