Cards' Garcia fans 13 in one-hitter vs. Brewers
In Thursday’s 7-0 win over the Brewers, Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia authored the following line:
9 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 13 K, 1 BB
Needless to say, that’s an impressive start. Garcia also carried a no-hitter into the sixth. After that gem, his 2016 ERA now stands at 2.40 after two starts with 19 strikeouts and four walks in 15 innings.
That brings us to what Garcia has done since the start of the 2015 season: 2.43 ERA, 154 ERA+, 2.94 FIP, 144 2/3 IP, 116 K, 33 unintentional BB, and 6 HR. Those numbers embody a significant step forward for the 29-year-old, as prior to 2015 he put up an ERA of 3.50 as well as a 108 ERA+, 3.42 FIP and 2.74 K/BB. To be sure, Garcia was darn good on a rate basis through 2014, but he’s been on another level since then.
As noted above, though, we’re talking about a 144 2/3-inning sample, which is not large. As well, Garcia ran a BABIP of .267 last season, and that’s a statistic that’s particularly prone to random variation on the pitching side of things. That said, maybe something’s changed with Garcia?
Overall, his pitch mix hasn’t moved that much — he’s still a five-pitch hurler who favors his low-90s sinker and runs some of the strongest groundball tendencies of any starter (and he gets groundballs with pretty much every offering). While Garcia has never had extreme platoon splits, he did fare better against right-handers last season, at both the batted-ball level and the strikeouts and walks level. Gradually, he’s been trading out some sinkers (typically not a great pitch against hitters of the opposite hand) for four-seamers when facing right-handers. That approach was even more evident last season and has been stronger still thus far in 2016. Using hard stuff that’s more neutral in terms of horizontal movement may be helping Garcia do a better job of taming right-handed batters, who last season hit .218/.266/.292 against him.
Whatever the case, the main concern with Garcia will always be his penchant for injury. He’s never reached 200 innings in a season, and just twice has he registered a qualifying number of innings. In matters related, he’s undergone Tommy John surgery and partially torn his labrum and rotator cuff. Last season, he missed time first because of his recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and then because of a groin strain. It’s notable that he’s even pitching at the major-league level in 2016, let alone pitching well.
In a way, though, Garcia is the way forward for the entire Cardinal rotation. The rate-basis excellence is unassailable. But will Garcia stay healthy? Will Michael Wacha avoid another late-season and possibly fatigue-related fade? Will Carlos Martinez‘s shoulder hold up? Will they miss the depth that Marco Gonzales could’ve provided? As with Garcia alone, the caveats are many, but the promise is substantial.
Jaime Garcia, if healthy, could be a force for the Cardinals in 2016. (USATSI)
