BDL’s 2015-16 NBA Playoff Previews: Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
One of the wackier NBA regular seasons in history is over, for better or worse, and the two-month playoff run is set to begin. With the first round upon us, the minds at Ball Don’t Lie decided to preview each series. Here’s our look at the No. 4-seeded Atlanta Hawks and No. 8 Boston Celtics.
How They Got Here
• Atlanta: After taking the NBA world by storm last season behind a beautifully free-flowing bombs-away attack, the Hawks ran aground in the postseason. Their opponents — first the Nets, then the Wizards, and eventually the Cavaliers — began short-circuiting Mike Budenholzer’s offensive machine, refusing to allow Kyle Korver room to catch-and-shoot on the perimeter while giving Jeff Teague acres of space to snuff out his slicing drives to the basket.
Pressed to provide a suitable encore for arguably the best season in franchise history, Atlanta struggled all year long to consistently counter the league’s changing defensive book, thanks in part to the loss of key swingman DeMarre Carroll in free agency, slow starts for Korver and Thabo Sefolosha after offseason surgeries, and inconsistent early play by Teague that led to the resumption of rumors that he might be on the move at February’s trade deadline. (He stayed put, and the Hawks have been excellent with him at the wheel since the All-Star break.) Scuffling just above .500 seven weeks into the season, Budenholzer had to find another way … and he did, by transforming a middle-of-the-road defense into the league’s most suffocating unit.
On Dec. 14, 2015, the Hawks ranked 15th among 30 NBA teams in defensive efficiency, giving up 101 points per 100 possessions. Since Dec. 15, they’ve been No. 1 with a bullet, allowing a microscopic 97.8 points-per-100 behind terrific work from the frontcourt tandem of Al Horford and Paul Millsap, who was the only player to finish in the top 10 in both total steals and blocks this season. Led by their smart, mobile, patient and active bigs, the Hawks snuff out the pick-and-roll and aggressively trap ball-handlers, with quick and opportunistic wings like Sefolosha, Korver, Teague, Kent Bazemore and Dennis Schröder rotating behind the trap to disrupt passing lanes, force turnovers, get out in transition and generally ruin opponents’ days.
On the strength of that stifling defense — plus steady offensive contributions from Millsap and Horford, in-season improvements from Teague, Korver and the emerging Bazemore, and strong play from a reserve corps led by Schröder — the Hawks finished the season with 15 wins in their final 22 games, with five of their seven losses coming against the Warriors, Cavaliers and Raptors. Last year, Atlanta played its basketball early enough in the season to have the East’s No. 1 seed sewn up by early March. This year’s post-All-Star surge has Hawks fans hoping that the 2016 model might be peaking at just the right time.
• Boston: Following a somewhat surprising improvement to 40 wins and the No. 7 seed in Brad Stevens’ second year, the Celtics again opted against “fireworks” last summer. (Well, that, and the Hornets said no.) Boston did, however, bring back tough-as-nails wing Jae Crowder and versatile forward Jonas Jerebko, and added ex-Toronto Raptors heartbeat Amir Johnson’s skills as a defender, rebounder, screen-setter and leader to a team otherwise relying on internal development.
It took Stevens nearly half the season to sort through all of Boston’s bodies and settle on a rotation. But after about 2 1/2 months of .500 ball, the Celtics started to take off in mid-January, producing points at a near-top-10 level over the season’s final three months. Suddenly, one of the league’s nastiest defenses — a panic-inducing, turnover-generating meat grinder powered by perimeter pitbulls Crowder, Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart — was supported by an offense that could give opponents headaches, too.
Isaiah Thomas led the charge, building on the pick-and-roll playmaking prowess he displayed after joining the C’s at the 2015 trade deadline to establish himself as not only a starter, but a legitimate All-Star and one of the game’s toughest covers. Perhaps more importantly, though, Stevens seemed to have found an answer for generating offense when Thomas hit the bench, uncovering a mix-and-match starter/reserve lineup — Bradley and Smart in the backcourt alongside point forward Evan Turner and floor-spacing bigs Jerebko and Kelly Olynyk — that started taking opponents’ second units to the woodshed, outscoring them by nearly 20 points per 100 possessions since mid-January.
The offensive uptick also coincided with Stevens moving offseason addition David Lee out of the frontcourt rotation; the Celtics bought the veteran out in February, after which he’d land with the Dallas Mavericks and help them earn a Western Conference playoff spot. The sans-Thomas part hasn’t totally persisted, though; since the All-Star break, the Celtics have gone from scoring like a top-five offense with Isaiah on the floor to a 76ers-and-Lakers-level yikes festival when he sits.
With the exception of Thomas handling one-on-one, no single Celtic scares you, and they’ve been middling of late, going 9-8 over their last 17 games. But this is a group that took the Warriors to the limit in Boston before becoming the first team in 14 months to take them out in Oakland, a deep and versatile unit that rejects the notion that it lacks a superstar because, in the words of Crowder, “All five guys on the court are so locked in and so engaged that we’re one superstar.” It’s up to Atlanta to break that engagement.
Head to Head: Atlanta took the season series 3-1, winning both matchups in Georgia and splitting a pair at TD Garden. Budenholzer missed the Hawks’ lone loss to tend to a family emergency; Smart missed two of the Celtics’ three defeats due to injury.
Despite shooting just 40.8 percent from the field, Boston scored a 13-point win over the Hawks in November thanks to relentlessness on the boards and on the defensive end, where they forced 17 Hawks turnovers. Thomas (23 points, 10 assists, five rebounds) led the way, Olynyk (15 points in 17 minutes) bombed away, and Crowder and Johnson (a combined seven steals and four blocks) got in the way.
Two weeks later, Atlanta would get revenge with a 121-97 win in which Millsap (25 points, nine rebounds, three assists) led seven Hawks in double figures as Budenholzer’s club buried Boston beneath 56.3 percent shooting and 12 3s. This time, it was the Hawks who won the disruption battle, scoring 22 points off 17 Boston turnovers to 20 Celtics points off Atlanta’s 21 miscues.
The song remained much the same in their next meeting, a 109-101 Hawks win in which Atlanta forced nine more turnovers than the C’s and kept Boston off the offensive glass. The Hawks took over in the fourth quarter, riding Millsap and Horford (41 points, 18 rebounds) and the penetration of Schröder (22 points, five assists, four steals in 28 minutes) to an eye-popping 68-36 edge in points in the paint. In their final meeting, just last week, Millsap (31 points, 16 rebounds) and the Teague-Schröder tandem (39 points, 14 assists) torched Boston in a 118-107 win that marked the first time in 19 games in which Thomas (16 points on 6-for-19 shooting) didn’t score 20 points.
Likely Starting Lineups: For Atlanta: Millsap and Horford up front, Korver and Bazemore on the wing, Teague at the point. Only one five-man unit (the Detroit Pistons’ pre-trade deadline starting five) logged more minutes this season than Atlanta’s starters, who have outscored their opponents by a solid four points per 100 possessions.
The version of the first five in which Sefolosha takes Bazemore’s place actually outperformed the more frequently used starting lineup over the full season — +6.3 points-per-100 in 235 minutes with Thabo at the three, choking opposing offenses out to an even greater degree. But Budenholzer has preferred the 26-year-old sophomore, who has both more playmaking juice off the bounce and a superior ability to cast off from deep — Bazemore made 35.7 percent of his 3s this year, taking nearly six per 36 minutes — that forces defenses to guard him on the perimeter, which opens up both more driving room for the point guards and more space for Millsap and Horford to operate down low.
Not that Horford’s a fixture there these days. He developed into a legitimate stretch five this season, shooting more than three triples per game and making them at a near-league-average 34.4 percent clip, which allows Atlanta to operate as a five-out squad for most of the game, spreading defenses out without sacrificing matchup integrity on the defensive end. There are warts — Bazemore’s still too reedy to handle stronger wing players; Teague and Korver can both be exploited defensively; Teague still has to hit enough 3s to dissuade opponents from sagging off him, etc. — but by and large, it’s a solid group that plays together and plays its collective backside off.
For Boston: Thomas and Bradley in the backcourt, Crowder at small forward, Sullinger and Johnson up front — another top-five group in terms of total shared minutes this season, and one that has outscored opponents by 2.4 points per 100 possessions, largely on the strength of a Thomas-led offense that can produce buckets in bunches when Bradley and Crowder are knocking down 3s.
Neither Johnson nor Sullinger reliably do that, which can lead defenses to pack in and bog down Boston’s offense at times. But their shared knack for stiff screens can create space for shooters and ball-handlers, and their talent for cleaning the glass can help the Celtics extend possessions. Neither is particularly adept at creating his own shot, but both contribute; Johnson commands attention with hard rolls to the rim, and Sullinger’s got soft hands in the post.
Bradley and Crowder have the length, quickness, footwork and tenacity to handle most defensive assignments on the perimeter, with Bradley often taking dangerous point guards in an effort to limit the exposure of the undersized Thomas. Crowder’s big and tough enough to play up a spot in the lineup as a small-ball power forward; it’s not the alignment Stevens prefers to start with, but it’s one to which he can turn to crank up the pace, get more shooting/playmaking on the floor, and try to force an opponent out of its comfort zone. He might feel that need early in this series, as Atlanta outscored Boston’s starters by 19 points in 30 minutes of floor time this season.
Matchups to Watch:
• Millsap vs. Boston’s bigs. Boston never really found an answer for the three-time All-Star during the regular season. He averaged 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, three assists, and just under three combined blocks and steals in 34 minutes per game against the guys in green, shooting a blistering 57.6 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from 3-point range. He’s just too nimble and smooth in the face-up game for Johnson, Olynyk, Sullinger or Tyler Zeller to stay with him, and he’s too good a shooter for bigger, slower defenders to get away with sagging off to play for the drive.
Downshifting might be Boston’s best bet — make Millsap beat peskier defenders while having to deal with their speed on the other end and, if you’re successful (and really lucky), maybe Budenholzer will match up by getting one of his two All-Star bigs off the floor. When Stevens went that route this season, though, Millsap didn’t seem to have much trouble showing he’s too big/physical for Crowder, Turner and Jerebko, either. If the Celtics can’t find a way to slow Millsap, or at least limit his touches — in Boston’s lone win, he shot 4-for-5 in the first quarter, then managed only five more shots the rest of the way — they could be in trouble.
• Who wins the turnover battle? Both teams thrive on creating chaos, posting near-identical opponent turnover ratios this season. Boston forced cough-ups on 16.2 percent of opponents’ possessions and averaged 18.8 points off turnovers per game, and Atlanta induced miscues on 16.1 percent of its defensive trips for an average of 18.5 points off turnovers per game; the Celtics and Hawks ranked third and fourth in the NBA in both categories, respectively. Whichever team’s ball-handlers can most effectively handle the opponents’ pressure at the point of attack, avoid live-ball turnovers, and generate more transition opportunities than they allow should have a big edge in a battle of offenses that need a little help.
• Can Atlanta clear the boards? Both Horford and Millsap are good rebounders, but the Hawks as a collective were one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league this year. While Boston also struggled to end possessions — the Celtics posted an identical 74.6 percent defensive rebounding rate — they excelled at extending them, with active bigs Sullinger and Johnson leading the charge for a team that grabbed 25.1 percent of available offensive rebounds, the NBA’s 10th-best rate. In the Celtics’ one win over Atlanta this season, they snagged 17 offensive boards, giving their misfiring offense the opportunity to take 27 more field-goal attempts than the Hawks, which led to 24 crucial second-chance points.
Unless Thomas totally takes control of this series — a distinct possibility, by the way — Boston will probably need help generating high-percentage looks. Dominating on the offensive glass could tip the scales in the Celtics’ favor.
How Atlanta Could Win: Boston just can’t check Millsap. At the point, two heads (Teague and Schröder) prove better than one (Thomas). They control the defensive glass well enough to catch the Celtics off-guard and imbalanced, creating transition opportunities for easy buckets. They make 3s; the Celtics don’t.
How Boston Could Win: Atlanta just can’t check Thomas, and can’t keep Sullinger and Johnson off the offensive boards. Some solution, whether renewed vigor from Johnson, better play from Crowder or some fancy new thing Stevens dreamed up this week, slows Millsap. The Olynyk-Smart-Turner second unit whomps Atlanta’s thin bench. Bradley and Smart burrow deep into the heads and hip pockets of Teague and Schröder, short-circuiting the Hawks’ offense.
Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Ranking: For casual fans: 4 out of 10; for die-hards: 7 out of 10. League Pass devotees who know just how hard the Celtics and Hawks play, and just how good these defenses are, should love this one, and the diminutive Thomas’ electric style leaps off the screen. Still, the lack of household names on two teams that thrive on preventing points rather than scoring them doesn’t much help the curb appeal.
Prediction: Hawks in 7.
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Dan Devine is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
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