Saves and Steals: Week Two Review
So, who had the Orioles leading baseball with a 7-0 record? Nobody? Right. Anybody think the Twins would be brutally terribad? It’s been a fun first week plus of baseball. We’re once again reminded that you can’t predict baseball. Well, the Cubs are 6-1. That we predicted just fine.
With the exception of the Phillies revolving closer carrousel, nobody has lost a ninth inning job in the last week. As a result, the tiers won’t change much. I’ve made a few minor tweaks.
On the stolen base side of things, Jose Altuve leads the league with six stolen bases in seven attempts. Bryce Harper is second best with three steals in three attempts. Where are our old friends Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon? Elvis Andrus has the dubious distinction of worst success rate – zero steals in three attempts. Oh, there’s Dee with two steals in four attempts.
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Tier 1: Elite (5)
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
Barring injury, we know enough about these elite relievers that no amount of poor performance would budge them from this tier. At least not over the first full week. Jansen maintains his perch atop the board with two saves and three strikeouts in two innings.
Kimbrel started strong with a clean save last Friday. He then took the loss on Monday in noisy fashion. Like last spring, his command is a little shaky. It led to two walks and a three-run home run. He also struck out two in the inning. Buy low if his owner is already panicking.
Davis’ command hasn’t been particularly sharp. He appeared three times in the last week, earning two saves and a win. He fanned four hitters and walked three. His stuff looks fine although his velocity is down a pinch. Still, he’ll need to cut the walk rate ASAP.
Britton is prone to solo home runs. If his sinker is hung, it’s an easy pitch to tattoo. Luckily, he rarely makes mistakes. He allowed a solo shot on Monday but still earned the save. Overall, he threw three innings with three saves, five strikeouts, two walks, and three hits allowed.
Well I guess Miller isn’t bothered by his broken wrist. He pitched three innings, nabbing a couple saves to go with five strikeouts. He allowed a couple hits.
Tier 2: Nearly Elite (5)
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Generally, the second tier is much like the elite tier – they’re just a little more likely to fall apart out of the blue. Allen is a perfect example. It’s possible he trusts his stuff too much. I watched his successful save last Wednesday, and he threw some cookies. Nobody punished him that game, but his appearance last night was a disaster. He allowed two runs via homer and recorded just one out.
The Mets are having some difficulty scoring runs. I doubt anybody is surprised. Familia was called upon to pitch in three close games but didn’t get any save chances.
Entering the season, I thought the Cardinals might be more mindful of Rosenthal’s usage. While he hasn’t pitched too frequently, he’s already been used for a four out save. He netted six strikeouts in 2.1 innings – not too shabby! I just hope he doesn’t wear out in the second half again.
Osuna is looking sharp again this year. As I noted in previous weeks, he has breakout potential. He was thrown into the fire last year and survived. Now that he’s more comfortable, he can put more thought into mastering his craft. Last week included two innings and four strikeouts.
Melancon is no longer a source of strikeouts, but his cutter heavy approach leads to good outcomes. He saved three in the last week in just 2.1 innings.
Tier 3: Good Veterans (4)
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins UPDATE
Rondon had a scary spring which led me to place him here instead of the second tier. Another week like the last one – three perfect innings, two saves, and seven strikeouts – will convince me that the bad spring meant absolutely nothing.
These guys aren’t too different from the second tier. Plenty of analysts trust Robertson more than I do. I think his skill set is a poor fit for his home park. Otherwise, he’s a good, reliable pitcher. He retired the side for a save in his only appearance.
The Marlins are not a good team. They’re not really a bad team either. Ramos found himself in two save situations and converted both attempts. He struck out three total and allowed one baserunner in each frame.
The Twins are 0-7. It follows that Perkins has recorded zero saves. He pitched a clean inning on Saturday and allowed two runs on Sunday. With his health issues over the last couple season, you might want to beware of using him on back-to-back days.
UPDATE: While I was writing the column, Perkins was placed on the disabled list with a shoulder strain. Look for Kevin Jepsena and Trevor May to get a crack at saves in his absence.
