Barry Bonds thinks Alex Rodriguez won’t catch his home run record

(Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) Miami Marlins hitting coach Barry Bonds believes his all-time home run record is safe. Despite a threat from New York Yankees designated hitter Alex Rodriguez, Bonds doesn’t seem all that worried. In fact, he might even be confident that his record will stand.

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Bonds told the New York Daily News as much, though his comments come with a huge caveat. When asked whether he believes Rodriguez would overtake him on the all-time home run leaderboard, Bonds said “No, not in two years.”

Bonds appears to be operating under the assumption that Rodriguez will retire once his contract expires following the 2017 season. There were rumblings that might be the case earlier during spring training, but Rodriguez later said he hasn’t made a decision about his retirement.

If A-Rod does choose to hang up his cleats after 2017, Bonds is probably right. Rodriguez is currently 74 home runs away from tying the all-time record, and would need to average 37 homers over the next two years to reach it.

That’s not impossible, but it’s incredibly unlikely. Even during his resurgent 2015, A-Rod only managed 33 home runs. The last time he hit over 37 home runs in a single season came all the way back in 2007, when he led the league with 54 dingers.

The fact that Rodriguez is already 40 years old probably doesn’t bode well for his case either. Few players get better at his age, so suddenly knocking 37 home runs would be quite the shock. At the same time, this is A-Rod, so we can’t really count anything out.

So, sure, if you apply that caveat, Bonds’ record is safe. If that’s not the case, though, things suddenly become a lot more interesting. Rodriguez would still have to perform at an incredibly high level, but if he can finish the 2017 season just 15 home runs off the record, there’s a chance he would try to come back for one more year to chase glory.

Even in that scenario, Rodriguez would have to average 30 home runs over the next two years in order to threaten Bonds. Again, it’s possible, but it’s probably not likely.

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Maybe Bonds is right, even if Rodriguez continues the pursuit of the record past 2017. But that’s not fun to think about. Whether you love or hate both men, a chase for the all-time home run record would at least be entertaining. Once Rodriguez retires, we’re not going to have that opportunity again for quite some time.

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