O'HARA'S 2016 DRAFT PREVIEW: Quarterbacks – detroitlions.com
Quarterback might not rank high among the Detroit Lions’ positions of immediate need on general manager Bob Quinn’s list of draft priorities, but it is a hot-button item for draftniks and fans of the team.
Nothing makes pulses race faster than the speculation about drafting a quarterback on any round – even for the Lions with 
One of the first roster-related questions submitted by fans was whether Quinn plans to take a quarterback at some point in the three-day draft, April 28-30.
“Is that something that is on your radar?” event co-host Dan Miller, sports director of Fox 2 and play-by-play voice of Lions games, asked in relaying a fan question.
“Yes, it is,” Quinn replied. “I think it’s really good football business to acquire a young quarterback every year, or every other year. It’s such a valuable position.”
Quinn referred to the development process required in the transition from college to the pros as a factor in drafting a quarterback.
“Nowadays in college football there are a lot of spread offenses, which means it’s a lot different than pro football,” Quinn said. “It takes these young quarterbacks time to develop.”
Parsing words to predict a team’s draft plans can be as unexacting as trying to pinpoint the player a team will draft with its compensatory pick in the fifth round.
However, it should be noted that the word Quinn used was “acquire” when asked if “drafting” a quarterback is on his radar, and there are numerous ways of acquiring players without drafting them.
Signing an undrafted free agent – as the Lions did with eventual three-year third-stringer Kellen Moore in 2012 – is one those ways. So are waiver claims and signing free agents.
If the draft as a whole is a giant pie, then speculation about the Lions drafting a quarterback – for whatever reason — is one of the tastiest slices. Lions President Rod Wood sees value in overall fan interest in the draft, and the attention riveted on the quarterback position.
“It’s an event,” Wood said. “It gets bigger and bigger every year. There are so many mock drafts. They do help educate the fans. It makes them much more aware of the players. It really creates more interest.
“Every fan of every team is rooting for their players. It’s fun.”
What about drafting a quarterback, even for a team like the Lions that is not looking for a starter? Wood referred to the Patriots as a model of that practice, even with Tom Brady locked in as the starter.
“It develops talent,” Wood said. “The Patriots have brought in quarterbacks and gotten currency.”
Setting aside speculation on what the Lions may do, this year’s draft has depth and talent at some positions, defensive line foremost among them, but it lacks star power.
That includes the quarterback position. Unlike last year, when Jameis Winston (2013) and Marcus Mariota (2014) were Heisman Trophy winners dueling to be the first pick overall, the intrigue this year is whether the first passer to go off the board will be Carson Wentz of 1-AA North Dakota State or Jared Goff, a prolific three-year starter at Cal.
Deeper in the prospect list, Connor Cook of Michigan State and Paxton Lynch of Memphis are candidates to be the third quarterback drafted with Christian Hackenberg of Penn State a lesser possibility.
For Wentz, it was predictable that one of the first questions he faced from the media at the Combine earlier this year was about what it meant to play in the Senior Bowl against top-level competition. He looked good in practice sessions during the week and completed six of 10 passes in the game.
“I think to a lot of people it showed I can handle that game speed,” Wentz said. “Obviously, there’s still going to be a big jump going forward, but that was probably the big question everyone wants to know: ‘Can he adjust? He was playing FCS ball.’
“All these guys are FBS guys. I think I went in there and proved that I could handle it.”
Following are Mike O’Hara’s quarterback ratings, the Lions’ depth chart and likelihood of them drafting a quarterback, their recent history of drafting – or not – quarterbacks and the NFL’s quarterback draft trend of the last three years:
(Measurements and workout results are from the NFL Combine, unless noted otherwise.)
1. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State: 6-5, 237 – 4.77 40 time.
Highlights: Playing at a 1-AA level and limited starting experience make it a bit of a leap of faith to project Wentz as some team’s franchise QB. He was the full-time starter his last two seasons – leading the Bison to national championships both years – but started only seven games in 2015 because of injuries. That’s not a lot of playing time. He threw 25 TD passes in 16 starts in 2014 and 17 in eight games, with seven starts, in 2015. The measurables – size, athleticism, smarts — are there to warrant taking a chance.
2. Jared Goff, California: 6-4, 215 – 4.82 40.
Highlights: It would be hard to argue against taking Goff over Wentz, based on competition level and the general consensus that he is more pro ready coming out of college. In 37 starts over three years, Goff threw 96 TD passes against 34 interceptions. None of that led to winning big, though. Cal was 14-23 in Goff’s three seasons, with a 1-11 record in 2013. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s the first QB drafted.
3. Paxton Lynch, Memphis: 6-7, 245 – 4.86 40.
Highlights: After a red-shirt season in 2012, Lynch started 38 games the next three years and led Memphis to some of its best seasons in school history. The 2014 team won its first conference football championship in five decades, and Lynch threw for 3,778 yards, 28 TDs and only four picks in 2015. The 2015 season ended on a downer, with a 31-10 loss to Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl. A 36-inch vertical jump at the Combine testing was impressive.
4. Connor Cook, Michigan State: 6-4, 217 – 4.79 40.
Highlights: There is a lot to like about this three-year starter – size, winning record in a major program (34-5 overall, 23-2 in the conference) and awards (2015 Johnny Unitas Golden Arm) – but also some question marks. At the top is his leadership question, sparked mostly because as a fifth-year starter in 2015 he was not elected captain by his teammates. Also, in his three seasons as a starter, he had completion rates of 58.7, 59.1 and 56.1 percent.
5. Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 6-4, 223 – 4.78 40.
Highlights: Hackenberg had a bright start in 2013 under former Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien, completing more than 70 percent of his passes with a 20-10 split of TD passes to picks. When O’Brien departed for the Houston Texans, Hackenberg’s game declined. His completion rates sank — to 55.8 and 53.5 percent in 2014 and ’15 respectively – and so, likely, did his draft stock.
6. Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State: 6-4, 231 – 4.94 40.
Highlights: After two seasons as a backup at Florida, Brissett transferred to N.C. State and started all 26 games the last two years after sitting out 2013 under NCAA transfer rules. His two-season stats line: 43 TDs and 11 interceptions, 12 rushing TDs, and the team MVP both years on so-so teams (15-11 won-loss record).
7. Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 6-2, 226 – 4.79 40.
Highlights: As a three-year starter he was one of the finest all-around offensive players in school history, setting numerous career records that include TD passes (70), rushing TDs by a quarterback (41) and completion percentage (62.7). Prescott was a finalist for the Manning and Unitas awards in 2014 and ’15 and was voted Most Outstanding Player in the 2016 Senior Bowl. An arrest for a DUI in March is a red flag, but he also left school with undergraduate and master’s degrees.
8. Cardale Jones, Ohio State: 6-5, 253 – 4.81 40.
Highlights: The team that drafts Jones is banking on developing his potential. He attempted only two passes in 2013 and was a backup in 2014 until forced to come off the bench when injuries felled Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett. Jones started the final three games in the Buckeyes’ run to the national championship. Jones started eight of the first nine games in 2015 and played in one other contest. For his career at Columbus, Jones threw only 270 passes, with 15 TDs and seven interceptions.
9. Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 6-3, 218 – 4.78 40.
Highlights: Hogan grew up in the Washington, D.C. area in a family with an athletic background. After a red-shirt 2011 season he took over as Stanford’s starter in game nine of the 2012 regular season and led Stanford to a 48-0 win at Colorado. It was the first of six straight wins for Hogan. No. 6 was over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. He started all 41 games the next three years, throwing 66 TD passes against 26 picks, with completion rates of 65.9 and 67.8 percent in 2014 and ’15.
10. Cody Kessler, Southern Cal: 6-1, 220 – 4.89 40.
Highlights: Another in a line of QBs of varying ability that Southern Cal has sent to the pros. Kessler is more in the mold of career journeyman and Patriots 2007 seventh-round draft pick Matt Cassel than Bengals 2003 first overall pick Carson Palmer. Kessler played under four head coaches in five seasons. He was a full-time starter the last three years, throwing 88 TD passes against 19 interceptions and demonstrating good accuracy with completion rates of 65.4, 69.7 and 66.8 percent for each of the three seasons.
Lions QB depth chart
Starter: Matthew Stafford, drafted first overall in 2009, has been the opening-day starter seven straight years. Stafford was the 2014 season Pro Bowl MVP and in 2015 became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 60 percent of his passes in all 16 regular-season games.
Backup:
Lions’ QB draft history, 2003-15: In 13 draft years since taking Joey Harrington in the first round in 2002, the Lions have drafted only three quarterbacks – Orlovsky in 2005, Drew Stanton in the second round in 2007 and Stafford first overall in ’09.
The Lions’ No. 2 quarterbacks mostly have been veterans signed as free agents – Jeff Garcia (‘05), Josh McCown (’06), J.T. O’Sullivan (’07), Daunte Culpepper (signed during ’08 and in ’09) and Shaun Hill (2010-’13). Orlovsky was a backup when he left as a free agent in 2009 and returned in that role.
Stanton, primarily the No. 3 QB as a Lion, played in 12 games with four starts in five seasons in Detroit. Kellen Moore, the No. 3 QB from 2012-14, was an undrafted free agent and never active for a game as a Lion.
Lions’ QB draft possibility: With 10 draft picks, it is a strong possibility for a prospect to develop, but probably not before the fourth round – at the earliest.
Three-year QB draft trend
2015: 7 drafted, 2 first round – Jamies Winston Bucs, Marcus Mariota Titans.
2014: 14 drafted, 3 first round – Blake Bortles Jaguars, Johnny Manziel Browns, Teddy Bridgewater Vikings.
2013: 11 drafted, 1 first round – E.J. Manuel, Bills.
