Since 2005, the Tennessee Titans have had six top 10 overall picks in the NFL draft, including this year’s No. 1 overall pick. Since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, the Titans/Oilers franchise has had 18 top-10 overall picks. The No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft will be the third time the franchise has selected first and the first time since 1978.

Given the Titans’ history with top picks, how will that influence what the team does with their No. 1 pick this year?

The Tians other two No. 1 overall picks were back in the Houston Oilers days. In 1978, they drafted running back Earl Campbell, and Campbell went on to have a Hall of Fame career with Houston. And in 1973, they took defensive end John Matuszak but traded him after a year with the team due to disputes with him playing in the World Football League while also playing with the Oilers.

Tennessee’s previous No. 1 overall picks are about as night and day as can be. Campbell turned out to be a Hall of Fame running back while Matuszak lasted just one year with the franchise. Both played very different positions, and both were taken many decades ago. So it’s hard to glean much information about where the Titans look for this year’s top pick from those two.

Of the Titans’ 18 top 10 overall picks, six of them have been used on quarterbacks. And three of those quarterbacks have been taken in the past decade. Vince Young (2006), Jake Locker (2011), and Marcus Mariota (2015) have been the most recent quarterbacks the Titans have taken with high draft picks, and Steve McNair (1995) was also taken with a top-10 pick by the then Houston Oilers. But with Mariota as their franchise quarterback, they won’t be taking a quarterback this time around.

The franchise has taken five offensive linemen with top 10 picks since 1970. Additionally, they have used two No. 11 overall picks on linemen  (Taylor Lewan in 2014 and Morris Towns in 1977). Two of the past three drafts have seen the Titans take an offensive linemen, the aforementioned Lewan in 2014 and Chance Warmack with the 10th overall pick in 2013.

05 January 2012: Former Houston Oiler great RB Earl Campbell salutes the crowd before the game between the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX.

Warmack was the team’s first offensive lineman taken with a top 10 pick since the Oilers drafted Dean Steinkuhler in 1984 with the No. 2 overall pick. Steinkuhler was the third straight offensive lineman the Oilers drafted in three years, joining Bruce Matthews and Mike Munchak as fellow top 10 picks in 1983 and 1982 respectively.

The Titans haven’t historically liked taking offensive linemen with high-value picks, but when they have it usually panned out. Both Munchak and Matthews went on to be Hall of Fame players, and Greg Sampson (1972 draft) played seven effective seasons with the Oilers until a blood clot in his brain forced him into early retirement. Warmack has not turned out as planned just yet, but Lewan has looked promising in his two years with the team.

And not to mention offensive line is a position of need for the Titans this year. Specifically at left tackle. Which would make Laremy Tunsil the favorite for the Titans to take with their No. 1 overall pick this year. This is further supported by the Titans’ scarce history of drafting defensive players with high-value picks.

The Titans have only taken a defensive player with a top 10 pick four times, and only one of those, Adam Jones in 2005, was a defensive back.

Simply put, defensive backs, no matter how talented, just aren’t drafted with the No. 1 overall pick. In fact, only once has a defensive back ever been taken with the first pick in any draft, and that was in 1956 when Pittsburgh selected Gary Glick with the No. 1 pick.

As talented as Jalen Ramsey is, drafting a defensive back with the top pick in the draft just doesn’t make as much since given the landscape of the NFL nowadays.

The Titans’ biggest need is on the offensive line. And given their draft history, they tend to know what they’re doing when they take offensive linemen with high draft picks. All of this points to Laremy Tunsil being the first off the board in the 2016 NFL draft as long as the Titans hold on to their pick.

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