NFL draft profile: Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith, major health question

Shutdown Corner is counting down the top 50 prospects in the 2016 NFL draft with a scouting report, quotes from NFL evaluators and a projection where they might be drafted.

27. Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith
6-foot-2, 230 pounds

Key stat: Became first true freshman to start at linebacker for the Irish since 1995 and made 293 tackles in 39 career starts before declaring after his junior season.

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The skinny: Entire profile for Smith changed on one harmless looking play when Ohio State OT Taylor Decker blocked Smith at the end of a run in the Fiesta Bowl, and Smith landed awkwardly on what would later be diagnosed as a torn ACL and MCL. Did Smith suffer nerve damage as well? He was vague when we asked him that at his pro day last week, and it’s possible that he misses part or all of his rookie season in the NFL pending the results of his medical re-check on April 14-15 in Indianapolis, along with his continued rehab, which has been impressive to this point.

When healthy, Smith might have rated as one of the top 10 players in the entire 2016 class. He is a stalk-and-attack linebacker with three-down prowess: against the run, as a blitzer, and in coverage. Smith has lateral speed, fluid hips, an instinctive nose for the ball and burst and twitch. For a player who played in the 230-pound range, he can lay the wood. His upbeat nature has served him well in his rehab from this devastating injury and helped teams believe that if anyone has the mental approach to return to form, it’s Smith.

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Best-suited destination: The team that drafts Smith has to be prepared for him to miss his entire rookie season, and as Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson reported at the NFL scouting combine at least three teams removed him from their draft boards until they get more information on Smith’s knee at the Indy re-check. This might require a confident front office and scouting staff making that call, although some teams might require ownership or other high-level sign-off on the pick, especially if it comes in the late first round. Smart, progressive franchises such as the Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings are among the teams we think could take a risk on drafting Smith up high in the draft.

Reason he’ll rise in draft: Players with this type of potential typically are not available outside the top 10, and so there could be a team that is confident in the medical information (the nerve damage is the biggest concern) they’ve received and that Smith is worth the long-term investment. Teams picking late in the first round have better records, by and large, and likely fewer immediate draft needs. Smith’s rehab appears to be going fairly well after the condition his knee caused a high level of concern in February at the combine.

Reason he’ll fall in draft: Teams are scared off by the Marcus Lattimore factor, that a wildly talented young man might take a year or longer to come back and that at some point decide it’s not worth it to keep pushing it, as Lattimore did (and he suffered no known nerve damage, for what it’s worth). Smith is believed to have taken out a $5 million loss-of-value insurance policy, which would pay off $700,000 if Smith falls from Round 1, with $100K for every pick he falls thereafter. And if there is nitpicking to do on Smith outside of the injury, he’s not regarded in scouting circles as a Ray Lewis-type, take-charge linebacker and didn’t run the Irish defense and make all the calls.

Scouting hot take: “After the [medical re-check] we’ll sit down and reevaluate his spot [on the draft board]. Best case, he’s back this year, but it’s really hard to say. He’s got a good grade from us assuming he’s healthy.” — AFC college scouting director

Player comp: Patrick Willis (when healthy)

Expected draft range: Late first or early second round

Previous profiles

50. Ohio State WR Braxton Miller
49. Indiana OT Jason Spriggs
48. Florida DL Jonathan Bullard
47. Texas Tech OT Le’Raven Clark
46. Arkansas TE Hunter Henry
45. Oklahoma WR Sterling Shepard
44. Michigan State QB Connor Cook
43. West Virginia S Karl Joseph
42. Michigan State DE-OLB Shilique Calhoun
41. Notre Dame WR Will Fuller
40. Pitt WR Tyler Boyd
39. Oklahoma State DE Emmanuel Ogbah
38. Alabama DE-DT A’Shawn Robinson
37. Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott
36. Memphis QB Paxton Lynch
35. Alabama C Ryan Kelly
34. Louisiana Tech DT Vernon Butler
33. Ole Miss DT Robert Nkemdiche
32. Georgia DE-OLB Leonard Floyd
31. USC S-LB Su’a Cravens
30. Alabama LB Reggie Ragland
29. Mississippi State DT-DE Chris Jones
28. Baylor NT Andrew Billings