NBA Roundtable: Roundtable: Maybe Next Year
Hello and welcome back to the NBA Roundtable! The season is almost over, but it’s never too early to think about the next one. With that said, I asked the Rotoworld hoops crew to discuss their favorite bounce-back candidates for next season. Be sure to follow us on Twitter by clicking the link next to our names. I’ll start us off!
Jonas Nader (@JonasNader)
Nikola Mirotic– I think we were all expecting a much bigger season from Mirotic, but his play the couple of weeks gives me some hope for the future. Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol could both bolt in free agency, meaning it’s possible that Mirotic could have way less competition for minutes in the frontcourt. He’s one of my favorite bounce-back targets for next season, but it depends on what the Bulls do this summer.
Jusuf Nurkic– The Bosnian Beast missed a huge chunk of the season after a lengthy recovery from knee surgery, but when he returned the Nuggets were already handing out minutes to four other bigs in Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic, Darrell Arthur and Joffrey Lauvergne. They unsuccessfully tried to trade Lauvergne at the deadline and Faried’s name has been on the trade block for years, so hopefully Nurkic will have a much easier path to minutes next season. He can produce monster numbers in a matter of minutes, and the good news is that Jokic is versatile enough to plays some four which will open up even more playing time for Nurkic. With a full summer to get his knee ready, he could be poised to break out.
Terrence Jones– Does he still exist? He hasn’t played since Feb. 29 and has been in coach J.B. Bickerstaff’s doghouse for most of the season. The Rockets have big plans in free agency and Jones is a restricted free agent, so I can’t see them matching a sizable offer. Jones could thrive in a fresh start, so I’d be willing to give him another chance as a late-round flier next season.
Ethan Norof (@Ethan_Norof)
Rudy Gobert: The Stifle Tower was a victim of (too much) offseason hype, and a knee injury really interrupted any possible progress he could have otherwise demonstrated. His ADP will likely drop a bit entering 2016-17, making him an appealing target given his ability to be a difference-maker.
Mario Hezonja: I thought Super Mario was capable of collecting more coins in his rookie season, but Evan Fournier‘s elevated play has prevented that scenario from coming to fruition. If Fournier leaves in (restricted) free agency, Hezonja’s path to production would be clear.
T.J. Warren: P.J. Tucker‘s 2016-17 salary is non-guaranteed, and Warren was showing some promising potential prior to going down for the season.
Matt Stroup (@MattStroup)
For starters, I agree wholeheartedly on Nurkic. His season stats won’t end up looking impressive, but that should only help to keep the 21-year-old’s price relatively low in drafts heading into next season. Other names who come to mind:
DeMarre Carroll – His first season in Toronto has been derailed by knee trouble, but when on the court he still did what Carroll does in points (11.7), steals (1.7) and 3s (1.8). That did include a massive dropoff in FG percentage (48.7 in his final year with the Hawks -> 38.8 in his first year in Toronto), but I expect Carroll — a career 45.3 percent shooter — to bounce back once fully healthy next season.
Wesley Matthews – He’s finishing the season on a very strong note (last nine games: 17.4 ppg, 1.3 spg, 4.2 3s), but overall his season has been a disappointment. His FG percentage (38.9) is the lowest of his career, and his scoring average (12.5) is his worst since his rookie year in 2009-10. Even further removed from his Achilles injury at the start of next season, he should be ready to get back to consistently posting vintage numbers.
Ryan Knaus (@Knaus_RW)
Wesley Matthews struggled for most of the season during his comeback from Achilles surgery, and only in the past few weeks have we seen shades of the aggressive defense and confident shooting he was known for in Portland. The Mavs will find ways to feature him whether or not Chandler Parsons stays in Dallas (he has a $16 million player option), and Matthews should reclaim mid-round value in 2016-17.
Al-Farouq Aminu is another player who changed teams this summer and had a middling season, confounding expectations that he’d thrive in a larger role for the Blazers. That’s all changed since he started playing primarily at PF over the past two weeks, however, with averages of 16.1 points (50% FGs, 82% FTs), 2.7 threes, 7.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks. Terry Stotts has a better idea of how to maximize Aminu’s talents and he should have a big season next year, but most owners will probably remember his mediocrity, not his hot finish. He’ll be available at a discount in most drafts.
We’ve barely seen what Rondae Hollis-Jefferson can do, as the rookie has appeared in just 26 games due to ankle surgery. He’s a work in progress offensively but has the potential to be a steals specialist, at a bare minimum, with per-36-minute averages of 9.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 2.4 steals and 0.7 blocks. Brooklyn is in rebuild mode so they have plenty of incentive to turn RHJ loose next season.
Michael Gallagher (@MikeSGallagher)
I’m late to the party here, so I’ll try to throw out some new names. You have to like Jusuf Nurkic, Wesley Matthews, DeMarre Carroll, Rudy Gobert and T.J. Warren as bounce-back players.
Serge Ibaka – He was viewed as one of the safer players to take in the early third and he flopped pretty hard. Ibaka’s floor is very nice, but not keeping his blocks up and seeing everything else fall hurt him. There’s no reason to think he can’t go back to his dominant 2012-15 ways.
Kyrie Irving – This year has pretty much been a waste. He only had a few bright spots since returning from his knee injury. A full offseason should go a long way.
Marcus Smart – He’s probably not really a true bounce-back player. I like to think of him bouncing back from what looked like a red-hot run before the break. He just never put it together after missing SO many open shots.
Bradley Beal – Another year, another leg injury. He’ll slide in drafts because of that and he really wasn’t even that good in 2015-16.
Jeff Teague – That two-month push of Dennis Schroder kind of derailed Teague a bit to hurt his overall value. Plus, he was playing through some injuries. I’d expect him to be a top-50 player again next year.
