Which teams could trade up for Titans’ No. 1 overall pick?
The Tennessee Titans appear open for business with the first pick in the draft, and credit to first-year GM Jon Robinson for seemingly creating a market out of thin air for a pick the team might otherwise have to use on an offensive tackle or a DB. That’s quality work so far for a guy who has been on the job less than three months.
We don’t yet know if the Titans will move down from No. 1 or not, but MMQB’s Peter King wrote Monday that there was a 50-50 chance that the pick could be dealt.
But who might be trading up?
Working off Robert Klemko’s list of teams that could be interested (and adding one of our own), let’s take a look at possible deal makers, what it might cost them and who they might be targeting. We know many of you still are married to the Jimmy Johnson chart for draft-pick value, but we are bigger fans of the Chase Stuart value calculator, which to us more accurately reflects modern pick value, and will be using that for this story.
Cleveland Browns
Where they pick: No. 2 overall
What they might give up: Nos. 2 and 99 (fourth round) overall for Titans’ Nos. 1 and 140 (fifth round) overall
Who the Browns might be targeting: Cal QB Jared Goff or North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz
First off, you might ask yourself why either team would do this deal? From the Browns’ perspective, it purely would be done to make sure they get the quarterback they like, assuming that they are not convinced Robert Griffin has any chance to fail (although these are the Browns we are talking about). Assuming they have not moved off of possibly targeting a QB, this would ensure that they get their guy and prevent another team from moving up. It’s a low cost, swapping the first pick of the fourth round for the first pick of the fifth, to land a possible franchise savior in a few years.
From the Titans’ perspective, we know they’re not taking a quarterback. So they can move down a slot, add a valuable piece (that 99th pick is a power position, and the trade offers can roll in for it Friday night/Saturday morning of draft weekend for more action if they want it. They essentially move up 41 slots and still get whoever they would have taken at No. 1 — Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil, Florida State DB Jalen Ramsey, or some mystery candidate. (They have spent a lot of time with Ohio State pass rusher Joey Bosa, for what it’s worth).
A safe, win-win deal for both sides.
San Francisco 49ers
Where they pick: No. 7 overall
What they might give up: Nos. 7, 37 (second round) and 142 (fifth round) overall for Titans’ Nos. 1 and 177 (sixth round) overall
Who the 49ers might be targeting: We’ll guess Goff
The 49ers soon could make a decision on Kaepernick, and despite all the posturing that has gone on we think it has come far enough that he’ll be traded to the Denver Broncos, netting them — let’s guess — future conditional draft pick. That would leave the 49ers with Blaine Gabbert, Thad Lewis and Dylan Thompson at QB, so … yeah. They need one. Put our feet to the fire, and we’d guess Goff is a better fit in a Chip Kelly system, with quick, accurate throws being one of the Cal QB’s hallmarks.
The 49ers are loaded with picks. They have 12 overall, although three of them (a fifth-rounder, and two sixths) can’t be dealt this year. Still, that’s ample ammo for a move up. The cost of a second-round pick here, plus sliding down 35 spots on Day 3 essentially, might feel high. But based on the reports of what Kelly offered the Titans a year ago for Mariota, this would be nickels on the dollar comparatively. Right now, nine of those 12 picks are on Day 3, and even with as many holes are on the roster we assume the Niners glady would part with one or more to get their QB.
As for the Titans, the risk comes in moving out of the top five picks in a draft that might have only five “elite” non-QB prospects in it. They’d have to hope that the Browns would go with a quarterback at two and that the Titans still could land an offensive tackle (Tunsil or Notre Dame’s Ronnie Stanley, whom they sent their head coach, GM and OL coach to watch at his pro day), Ramsey, Bosa or perhaps Oregon DE DeForest Buckner (who fits this defense nicely), UCLA LB Myles Jack or Florida CB Vernon Hargreaves III. Are they OK with one of those? If so, do it. The extra second-rounder could net a Day 1 starter.
Philadelphia Eagles
Where they pick: No. 8 overall
What they might give up: Nos. 8, 77 (third round) and 79* (third round) overall for Titans’ No. 1 overall
Who the 49ers might be targeting: Wentz
First, let’s work backward here. Would the Eagles give up their two third-rounders and not pick again until No. 11 overall? That’s a steep drop, to a pick they coincidentally landed in the DeMarco Murray deal with Tennessee earlier this offseason. The Eagles traded their second-rounder in the Sam Bradford deal last year, so they’re shorthanded up top. This proposed trade adds up from a value standpoint, but that might be too much for the Eagles, who are switching defenses, undergoing an offensive makeover and — let’s face it — are more than an FCS quarterback with 23 college starts away from being a contender.
Perhaps the Eagles could offer up something else — maybe former first-rounder Marcus Smith, and/or a 2017 draft pick — in lieu of, say, the second* of those third-rounders. (And we picked Wentz over Goff as their target because we have heard a little more buzz with him being connected to Philly, for what it’s worth.)
Why would the Eagles want another quarterback after paying Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel more than $20 million? Oh, who knows? But owner Jeffrey Lurie has been tagging along on the team’s quarterback visits with prospects such as Goff and Wentz and Paxton Lynch, although if they love Lynch maybe staying at 8 is their smartest move.
As for the Titans, the same questions exist in a potential trade to 8 as they would to the 49ers deal above: Will a player they love be there? If they’re confident about it, adding two thirds would give the Titans five picks between 8 and 79, and it’s possible that three or those become Week 1 starters. They have holes all over the place, and the real meat of this draft might be between picks 30 and 60 overall.
Los Angeles Rams
Where they pick: No. 15 overall
What they might give up: Nos. 15, 43 (second round) and 45 (third round) overall for Titans’ Nos. 1 and 140 (fifth round) overall
Who the 49ers might be targeting: Goff
We’ve mentioned it before, but even as the Rams have more needs than just a single quarterback, if there’s a team that can afford to trade multiple picks high in the draft to land their future signal caller, it’s this one. First of all, the need is high; Case Keenum is not leading you to a title. Second, they Rams have loaded up on picks (46 the past five drafts) as one of the most active draft trade teams, including the famous Griffin deal.
Now, have they nailed all those picks? Umm, no. But they still have landed some young stars (Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley) and seemed to do well in sending fourth- and sixth-rounders to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Mark Barron. So the point is that they can afford to have a five-pick draft class, including a QB who might not be ready immediately, and not feel like they were cheated. Goff might be the more ready-made of the two top quarterbacks, and he’s almost two years younger than Wentz. The fact that he was born 5-6 hours up the coast from Los Angeles might be a tiny cherry on top, too, for a team seeking to generate local buzz, although it hardly would be a game-changing factor at all.
But the reason this feels least likely to happen of all these scenarios is that the Titans might not want to move all the way down to 15. Would they get someone they loved here? That’s not guaranteed. Sure, they could land an offensive tackle, such as Michigan State’s Jack Conklin or Ohio State’s Taylor Decker, or maybe a talented defensive lineman here. A quality nose tackle such as Jarran Reed or A’Shawn Robinson from Bama makes sense, too.
That, or the Titans, now armed with five of the draft’s first 64 selections, could try to slide up a few spots to ensure they get their guy. But you can’t assume a team will want to move down. They have to make sure someone would be there at 15 to make this trade. Still, the allure of picking four times in the first 45 spots would have to be high for a first-year general manager with quite a few needs to address.
Dallas Cowboys
Where they pick: No. 4 overall
What they might give up: Nos. 4, 67 (third round) and 189 (sixth round) overall for Titans’ No. 1 overall
Who the 49ers might be targeting: Wentz, Goff or Ramsey
Hey, we had to throw one fun one in here. Are the Cowboys moving up for a QB? Not likely. But they did coach Wentz at the Senior Bowl, and Jerry Jones kept amazingly quiet a few years back when they moved from 15 to 6 to land Morris Claiborne on Draft Day. Of course, we know how that deal went, but the Cowboys almost certainly will take a quarterback after roundly ignoring the position in the draft for the better part of two decades now, and there’s none they know better in theory than Wentz.
We suppose the Cowboys also could go with Ramsey, but would they really give up the high third and a later pick to do that when there’s a chance they could stand pat at 4 and get him for nothing? That feels like a hefty price.
For the Titans, it’s a win-win. They pick up and early third, move down a mere three slots in Round 1, which could guarantee them getting either Ramsey or Tunsil if Wentz/Goff go 1-2 overall. How great would that be?
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm
