NBA Playoff Picture: Where the seeds stand with nine days to go
Only nine days remain in the NBA’s 2015-16 regular season, yet just 10 teams are currently confirmed for this spring’s playoffs. While some of those races for berths and seeding look like mere formalities, several should go down to the final day of the season. Here’s a look at what’s locked up and what’s at stake in each conference for these final few games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The Golden State Warriors will beat out the San Antonio Spurs for the No. 1 seed with two more wins, or one if it comes in either of the teams’ two matchups over the last week of the season. Golden State seems committed to seeking the single-season wins record until it’s no longer a possibility, so it’s safe to assume they will accomplish it. For that matter, the Spurs don’t seem especially concerned with finishing second, and why would they? It’s possible there’s never been a No. 2 seed this good.
The next two seeds are similarly solid — the Oklahoma City Thunder are one win from finishing ahead of the Los Angeles Clippers for No. 3. The Clippers can’t finish any worse than No. 4 no matter what happens, so they can at least depend on holding homecourt advantage in the first round. It’s also worth noting that the current standings would give L.A. a much more favorable matchup against the injury decimated Memphis Grizzlies, although they’re unlikely to hold onto that spot for reasons we’ll get to very soon.
The rest of the conference is much more complicated. Five teams remain active for a playoff berth, and they’re separated by just three games from fifth to ninth place. Someone is going to go home very unhappy next Wednesday.
It starts in Memphis, where the 41-36 Grizzlies have lost six in a row and sit just a half-game ahead of the Portland Trail Blazers for the No. 5 seed. We would normally consider the Grizzlies a lock to finish no worse than eighth, but injuries to key players and a hellish final stretch of the schedule could see them fall out entirely. Memphis finishes with games vs. the Bulls, Warriors (twice), Clippers, and Mavericks. Only the Warriors and Clippers could potentially be playing for nothing, and that’s only if Golden State doesn’t have a chance at 73 wins and the Clippers decide it’s not worth it to play everyone in an effort to get comfortable with Blake Griffin.
That should put Portland in good position to move into fifth. The four remaining games feature no real tests —one at Sacramento leads into a three-game homestand with the Thunder, Timberwolves, and Nuggets. OKC figures to rest players on the second night of a back-to-back and might not have much interest in a win.
If the Blazers falter, both the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz will have a chance to move up. Each sits at 39-38 with a one-game advantage over the Houston Rockets. Unfortunately, their schedules look daunting. Dallas only plays teams in the playoff picture — the Rockets, the Grizzlies, at the Clippers, at the Jazz, and a home finale with the Spurs. Utah isn’t much luckier with visits from the Spurs and Clippers, an always tricky trip to the Nuggets, that game with the Mavericks, and a chance to ruin Kobe Bryant’s last game ever.
These factors all open up an opportunity for the Rockets, who can salvage something from a terribly disappointing season by nabbing a playoff berth in the final week. The schedule is forgiving enough to make up a one-game gap — a very important matchup at Dallas on Wednesday is more than balanced out by a closing run with the Suns, Lakers, Timberwolves (the lone road game), and Kings. Not making the postseason with those meager challenges would be the greatest disappointment of all.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The Cleveland Cavaliers are about to do something they couldn’t last season — clinch the East’s No. 1 seed. While it’s difficult to say the Cavs will enter the playoffs in especially good shape, they should beat out the Toronto Raptors for homecourt advantage throughout the conference’s playoffs some time in the next few days. That’s not terrible news for the Raptors — they can’t finish any worse than second and have already set a record for the most wins in a franchise history.
Everything after those two spots is a mess. It’s easiest to think of the remaining races in two blocks — a clump of four teams already holding berths that could all finish anywhere from No. 3 to No. 6 and three teams (well, technically four) trying to get into the last two spots.
The first tier begins with the Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics, both 45-32 and looking to avoid seeing the Cavs until the conference finals. Atlanta’s remaining five games probably look tougher than they are — the Suns are not much of a challenge, the Raptors won’t be playing for much, a visit from the Celtics on Saturday is clearly a big deal, and closing games at the Cavaliers and Wizards probably won’t matter to the opponents. The Celtics can gain better position when they host the eliminated Pelicans and Bucks on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, but they finish with three against the teams closest to them in the standings. At least the final two come at home.
Those other teams, the Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets, are only a half-game behind the Hawks and Celtics. The Heat have a much tougher schedule — two with the Pistons (who we’ll get to in a bit), one with the Bulls (ditto), a finale at the Celtics, and a slight reprieve with a home-and-home against the Magic. The Hornets should be thrilled by their comparative luck, because the only really tough games left are visits to the Raptors and Celtics.
Given that four teams are separated by a half-game, it’s a safe bet that tiebreakers will come into play. It’s not worth boring anyone with the details right now (in part because they’re far from decided), but it’s possible that finishing sixth will be more desirable than fourth or fifth. At least that team would face a rough equal in the first round and wouldn’t have to deal with the Cavs until the conference finals.
The second East block concerns the last two playoff spots, although it’s a safe bet that they’ll end up occupied by the Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons, both 41-36. Indiana has a much easier schedule — two against the Cavs and Raptors (two teams that aren’t playing for a whole lot) and three relatively easy ones against the Nets, Knicks, and Bucks. The Pistons will have to contend with the Heat twice, which automatically makes their test tougher.
The good news for Detroit is that the Chicago Bulls don’t look especially likely to make up their two-game gap. Saturday’s loss to the Pistons put the Bulls in rough shape, and a run of games against the Grizzlies, Heat, and Cavs could very well eliminate them before a soft landing against the Pelicans and Sixers.
The Washington Wizards can technically make the playoffs, but they’re four games out of a spot and not going to close that gap. We wish you luck in your future endeavors, Randy Wittmann.
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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
