Backstage Pass: Jumping Like Lottery Balls

The end of the NBA season is jumping like lottery balls. There are a lot of scenarios in the playoff hunt, especially with the Eastern Conference having seeds 3-6 within a half game of each other (Hawks, Celtics, Heat and Hornets in order). The Pacers and Pistons have a two-game lead over the Bulls to protect their seven and eight seeds, respectively.

On the other side of the continent, it’s much clearer in the Western Conference. The Blazers are almost a lock to overtake the Grizzlies for No. 5 while everything else is pretty clear 1-6. The clarity in those spots makes it more than likely those teams will rest guys. The Mavs, Jazz and Rockets will be playing musical chairs for No. 7 and 8 with the Rockets currently one game back.

On the other side of things, the lottery teams are pretty close to each other, too. This could also have some implications with rest going forward. It’s definitely not an exact science to figure out who is going to rest now, but we can get some hints. Yes, we all know about the road-road back-to-back factor, but the tank factor is real right now. Check this out (via tankathon.com):

Let’s break this down:

The 76ers have the top spot locked up and the Lakers are basically locked in at No. 2. Plus, the Lakers pick is top-three protected. In other words, two teams would have to leapfrog them to lose their pick. They Lakers do only have a 55.8 percent chance to stay in the top three, so it’s not a lock they keep it. The Lakers probably won’t rest Kobe Bryant in his farewell tour, but players like Lou Williams are getting nights off. The 76ers have injuries to keep their best players off the court.

The only other team without really any lottery implications going forward is the Wolves. There’s almost no chance they can move from the No. 5 spot. They can play their studs without any real consequence for the lottery.

The Nets and Knicks will not have their unprotected picks, so it’s pointless for them to tank here. Yes, this is the part where you can make an Take That Masai/Andrea Bargnani joke. Such an awful trade. Of course, the Nets made some awful calls on their trade with Boston. They have already shut down Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez to give them time off after a season-long grind. We will probably see the occasional night off for Bojan Bogdanovic, too. Obviously you’ll want to roll with Thomas Robinson the rest of the way, assuming you’re OK with sub-par foul shooting. By the way, who gives up unprotected first-round picks anymore?

The Nuggets may also have to give up their pick as part of a pick swap. If they do get a top-three spot in the lottery and the Knicks pick isn’t in the top three, the Nuggets would keep their pick and the Raptors would get the Knicks’ pick. In other words, the Nuggets get the choice on their pick and the Knicks’ pick with the Raptors getting the leftovers. The Knicks just get Andrea Bargnani. Oof.

The Pelicans, Bucks, Magic and Kings are by far the four with the most to lose going forward. As Rosie Perez said in White Men Can’t Jump, sometimes when you win, you actually lose. That’s the case here with all of those teams currently in the mix. Potentially, if a team like the Pelicans gets “hot” and wins three more games, they could slide from the six spot to 11 — the Pelicans are on a two-game winning streak and play the 76ers tonight, too. That Tim Frazier signing is killing them! They really can’t rest anyone because they don’t have enough bodies anyway.

The Bucks are also firmly in the mix to move up from their 10 spot. Khris Middleton (quad) and Jerryd Bayless (knee) are already banged up, so they could be rested. The Bucks have been pretty shady at times, but I get the sense they want Giannis Antetokounmpo out their for their home folks. Plus, he’s getting valuable experience at the point to get him ready for a huge offseason. He’s expected to be the team’s point guard next season and is already looking like a first-round pick in fantasy leagues. Still, the Bucks have three more road games with a back-to-back set on Sunday and Monday. Don’t be surprised if Giannis rests in one of those. Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker could be rested at times, too.

Ah, the Kings. They’ve played well lately and have gone 5-5 in their last 10. They are now dangerously close to losing their first-round pick, though. If they pick after 10, their pick will go to the Bulls. They have three straight home games, so they might not rest players, and that could be a big mistake. Their schedule isn’t too tough after tonight against the Blazers either. They get the Wolves at home on Thursday, a possible resting OKC team in SAC on Saturday, they’re in Phoenix on Monday and close out in Houston on Wednesday. It’s not too farfetched to think they win three of those games, assuming they don’t rest DeMarcus Cousins at home. If they do win three while the Nuggets, Bucks and Magic all tank the rest of the way, they might be the Kangz once more. They obvioulsy have the most at stake here with potentially the No. 6 spot in the lottery to not even having a pick this year.

Orlando is interesting. They have also played some solid ball lately with four wins in their last five. Consequently, it’s caused them to slide in the lottery. Interestingly, general manager Rob Hennigan may be looking to build his team through free agency or trades and not the draft. Personally, I hate that idea. Anyway, the Magic seem like they won’t be tanking, but their schedule is really tough: Detroit at home on Wednesday, Miami at home on Friday, in Miami on Sunday, they host the Bucks for a huge lotto game on Monday and finish in Charlotte on Wednesday. For now, it doesn’t look like rest is coming.

The Wizards pretty much have to play flawless ball to make the postseason. To make matters worse, they will give up their first-round pick to the Suns from the Markieff Morris trade. It is top-10 protected, so they would keep it if they come up with a top-three pick in the lottery.

Obviously the Rockets, Bulls, Pistons, Pacers, Jazz, and Mavs will be giving it their all to make the playoffs.

An MVP any other year

Kevin Durant is on the brink of qualifying for scoring with a true shooting percentage greater than 63 and a usage rate greater than 30. He also achieved this back in 2013-14 during his MVP season and this feat has only been accomplished three times before this season. LeBron James also put up those numbers in the 2012-13 season and in 2013-14, too. Of course, Stephen Curry is going to be the first player ever to have a usage rate of at least 30 and a true shooting percentage over 65 percent — he’s at 67.3 percent right now. Incredible.

The point is KD is just very under appreciated this season. Obviously, we’ll be hearing a lot about KD the rest of the way as OKC looks to make noise in the postseason before KD is a free agent this summer.

Championship

Lastly, I just wanted to say how proud I am to win the industry 30-team league. Matt Stroup and Steve Alexander have also taken it home this decade, so the Rotoworld crew is representing! Here’s the championship squad (I traded Nikola Jokic, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and J.J. Barea for Al Horford when MKG looked great after two games and Jokic was peaking; I drafted the rest of the studs and picked up Ish Smith when he signed with the Pelicans back in October):