NCAA Championship Game: Expert picks for Villanova vs. UNC – CBSSports.com
From 68 teams which made the NCAA Tournament we are down to the last two — Villanova and North Carolina.
Here’s our predictions for Monday’s game both straight-up and against the spread as we tell you which teams will be cutting down the nets.
Gary Parrish, CBS Sports College Basketball Insider: Villanova is winning its NCAA Tournament games by an average of 24.2 points — which is a record-setting pace, even better than what 1967 UCLA once did. Still, the Wildcats are underdogs to the Tar Heels in this title game, and that can only be considered a compliment to Roy Williams’ team. Honestly, whichever way you pick, this game will make you look dumb if you’re wrong. Because if you pick against North Carolina, and North Carolina wins, then why in the world would you pick against the preseason No. 1, the ACC regular-season champ, the ACC Tournament champ, the team with the most talent? On the other hand, if you pick against Villanova, and Villanova wins, how could you pick against a team that’s on a historic pace and coming off of a 44-point victory in the national semifinals? Bottom line, who knows? But I’ll take North Carolina, I guess, if only because I took North Carolina in the preseason. North Carolina 75, Villanova 71
Bill Reiter, CBS Sports National Columnist: Villanova is just too balanced. The Wildcats are ranked in the top ten in both defensive and offensive efficiency and like a lot of teams, they have just hit their groove shooting-wise. Their 58.2 percent shooting percentage in the tournament is markedly higher than their 46.7 percent field-goal percentage in the regular season. They just found that momentum and will ride it vs. North Carolina. That combination for me puts them over a great UNC team. Villanova 68, North Carolina 61
Matt Norlander, CBS Sports College Basketball Writer: Just give us a good one, right? After Saturday, no matter what, we’d be so grateful for a final game that was in doubt with even four minutes to go. I think it’s possible, even though these teams, between them, have beaten their opponents in this tournament by an average of 20 points. I think this one’s gonna be really good. I think Kris Jenkins should have a great game, and UNC is almost certainly going to get a lot out of Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks in the paint. The difference? How about Ryan Arcidiacono’s crazy shooting so far in this tournament. He’s at 61 percent from 3-point range and has twice as many turnovers as assists. Josh Hart was so big in Saturday’s game, but Villanova’s a team with five guys capable of putting up 20-plus. I’m going with the team that’s had the tougher road, beaten the better opponents and played the best through five games in this bracket. Villanova 77, North Carolina 73.
Chip Patterson, CBS Sports College Basketball Writer: Look, if Villanova continues its current tear they are going to win this game. There is a real possibility that we are witnessing a moment for this program and their fifteen-year coach, Jay Wright, with these absurd shooting performances and an NCAA Tournament margin-of-victory that’s on pace to break 1967 UCLA. But picking Villanova to follow up the second-best shooting performance in Final Four history with another equally impressive evening on Monday requires faith that I lack when staring in the eyes of Brice Johnson and the North Carolina front line. Johnson, an active Kennedy Meeks, Joel James and Isaiah Hicks combined for 41 points and 24 rebounds against Syracuse in a game where UNC missed its first 10 three-pointers yet still led by 11 at halftime. While the Tar Heels aren’t shattering any records on their tournament path, Roy Williams has five straight double-digit victories and a team that looks bigger and stronger than anyone else in the tournament. North Carolina 77, Villanova 71
Sam Vecenie, CBS Sports College Basketball Writer: Man, this might be the toughest game to call of the tournament, which is absolutely terrific given that it’s the national title game. I think I’m going to go with North Carolina over Villanova though. I’m pretty concerned about Kris Jenkins pulling North Carolina’s bigs away from the hoop on offense and causing problems. I’m also a bit worried about Nova being a better defensive team. But the key here is going to be tempo. Whoever dictates the tempo of this game will be the winner. And personally, I think North Carolina does a better job of playing the game at its pace than anyone in the country outside of Virginia. Roy Williams gets his third national title. North Carolina 80, Villanova 74
Jerry Palm, CBS Sports Bracketology Expert: Both of these teams are on serious tears, as you might expect of teams that get to this point of the tournament. Villanova is coming off of one of the all-time best single-game tournament performances. If the Wildcats play like that again, there’s no doubt they will be national champions. This will be a significantly greater challenge though. UNC owns the paint against everyone on both ends of the floor. That will put more pressure on Nova’s 3-point shooters and its interior defense. Villanova won’t be as good if they’re one-dimensional and UNC can force that. And if Carolina is hitting threes at a better clip than against the Orange — uh-oh. Look for a close game, but North Carolina is cutting down the nets. North Carolina 74, Villanova 70
Houston’s NRG Stadium is ready for the Final Four. (USATSI)