Brad vs. the Book: Hammer time for Villanova or North Carolina?
Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Monday’s national title selection below:
Villanova vs. North Carolina – The shooting showcase put on by Villanova Saturday versus Oklahoma left this rather loquacious fellow speechless. It seemed a rotation of prime Reggie Millers were on the floor. Against a Sooners defense that had surrendered just 1.00 points per possession in the NCAA tournament, the ‘Cats netted an astonishing 71.4 percent from the field, second only to Rollie Massimino’s ’85 ‘Nova team, for hottest Final Four performance all-time. For KenPom fanatics, their 1.51 points per possession was pure lunacy.
Equally impressive, Josh Hart and friends kept OU out of transition, clamped down along the perimeter and forced numerous turnovers (17). That outstanding defensive effort held one of the game’s elite offenses, spearheaded by arguably the best player in the nation Buddy Hield, to only 0.81 points per possession. The 44-point differential, the most lopsided victory in Final Four history, was a bloodbath of ‘Rambo’ proportions.
After ‘Nova’s rousing performance, many believe it will be spent when it takes the floor Monday night. Though the blistering scoring exhibition won’t be duplicated, it has shot tremendously well throughout the tournament. Excluding the OU massacre, the ‘Cats tallied 1.27 points per possession and drilled 46.3 percent of their three-point attempts in their other triumphs.
Because Jay Wright’s club is only an average rebounding team, UNC, which has generated a second chance opportunity on 48.1 percent of its tournament possessions, has a distinct glass advantage. Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks should feast down low. However, due to Villanova’s unrelenting halfcourt defense, Tar Heel transition opportunities will likely be few and far between. And it’s impossible to predict what versions of Marcus Paige and Joel Berry make an appearance. Against a ‘Cats defense that’s conceded only 33.3 percent from three this season, a net-burning performance from the inconsistent duo seems unlikely.
Ultimately, the three is the great equalizer. If the ‘Cats, a dynamite passing team, swing the ball effectively to the open man, they should receive several uncontested looks. Keep in mind Carolina ranks No. 247 in three-point percentage defense. Seize those moments, occasionally drive to the tin without hesitation and maintain a halfcourt tempo, and Villanova will score its first championship plaque in 31 years.
Prediction: Villanova (+2.5) 79 North Carolina 76 (OVER 151)
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