Ranking all 30 MLB opening day starting pitchers
The day we thought would never get here is within our sights now. On Sunday, Major League Baseball will open the 2016 season with three intriguing matchups that should effectively whet our appetite for the season that lies ahead.
If you’re like the crew here at Big League Stew, you’re counting down the hours and even minutes until Francisco Liriano throws out the season’s first pitch at PNC Park. Before we get there, though, allow us to set stage with our annual ranking of all 30 scheduled opening day starters.
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As always, there’s a fascinating mix of established stars, reliable veterans and up-and-comers with potential to reach either category. They range in age from 24 to 34, which is considerably less than the 18 year difference from youngest to oldest last season. Indeed, there are no Bartolo Colons this time around, but it’s an accomplished group in its own right with 2,102 combined wins, 11 Cy Young Awards, two MVPs. 52 All-Star selections, 11 no-hitters and one perfect game.
The rankings are highly subjective. It’s a balance between each pitcher’s recent performance, the direction we see them going in 2016, with some extra emphasis on their opening history. If you disagree, we’d love to hear why.
And now, on to the rankings.
Were you expecting someone else? Kershaw retains his No. 1 spot for two reasons. First, he’s Clayton Kershaw. Second, he’s still awesome. If not for Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke, Kershaw would have become the fifth pitcher ever to win a fourth Cy Young Award, joining Roger Clemens (seven), Randy Johnson (five), Greg Maddux and Steve Carlton. This will be opening-day start No. 6 for the superstar left-hander, and at age 28 it still feels like he’s just getting started.
2. Jake Arrieta — Chicago Cubs (@ Angels, Mon. 10:05 ET)
It takes a special season to even consider removing Kershaw from his No. 1 perch. That’s exactly the season Arrieta had in 2015. While not the most telling stat, his 22 wins led baseball. His 1.77 ERA was second only to Zack Greinke. But it wasn’t just the numbers that were impressive. It was his determination to dominate opponents, finish what he started (four complete games, three shutouts, one no-hitter) and get Chicago into the NLDS, which he did by shutting out Pittsburgh in the wild-card game.
[Here are our previews for every MLB team before the 2016 season]
3. Max Scherzer — Washington Nationals (@ Braves, Mon. 4:10 ET)
Dusty Baker hopes to change a lot of things for the Nationals. The opening day starter wasn’t one of them. Scherzer will get that nod for the second straight season, beating out two very capable pitchers in Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez. Perhaps Scherzer will take this opportunity to deliver the first no-hitter in opening day history. He carried one into the sixth inning last year against the Mets, before completing two later in the season. He’s as dominant as they come on the hill.
4. Zack Greinke — Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Rockies, Mon. 9:40 ET)
The opening day spotlight will shine upon Greinke. After three seasons serving as 1B to Kershaw’s 1A in Los Angeles, he’ll get the ball for Arizona and make his second opening day start overall. Greinke’s coming off a 2015 season that was better than his Cy Young campaign in 2009, but wasn’t better than Jake Arrieta’s season. That fact, plus a new challenge in Arizona, should guarantee the fire will continue burning.
Hernandez’s opening day streak extends to eight, which is the longest current streak in MLB. He’s earned that distinction by being one of baseball’s most consistently dominant pitchers over his 12 year career. He’s at his best in season openers too, posting a 6-0 record with a sparkling 1.49 ERA and 62 strikeouts over 60.1 innings. He’s not just the King of Seattle. He’s the King of opening day.
6. David Price — Boston Red Sox (@ Indians, Mon. 4:10 ET)
The Red Sox will pay Price $217 million over the next seven years to be their ace, and he’ll have a chance to establish that role on opening day. There’s a pretty cool twist to this too, as Price will now make his third straight opening-day start for a third different team. Price started the opener for the Rays in 2013 and 2014, and then got the nod with Justin Verlander ailing in Detroit last season. Now he’s with the Red Sox, where he’ll likely make several more.
7. Madison Bumgarner — San Francisco Giants (@ Brewers, Mon 2:20 ET)
Despite some nagging ailments, mechanical issues and the additions of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija this offseason, Bumgarner is set for his third straight opening-day start. He’s earned that right by being a 200-inning workhorse each of the past five seasons, a three-time All-Star and the MVP of the 2014 World Series. Bruce Bochy knows where his bread is buttered.
[30 things you need to know before MLB’s opening day]
8. Chris Sale — Chicago White Sox (@ A’s, Mon. 10:05 ET)
After a freak foot injury cost Sale his usual season-opening assignment last season, the dominant left-hander is back in the saddle. That injury may have actually cost Sale some of his effectiveness too, as he posted a career worst 3.41 ERA over his 31 starts. Then again, despite missing those early starts he still led the American League in strikeouts with 274. Take that however you please, but we’re sure he’ll be all kinds of awesome again this season.
9. Cole Hamels — Texas Rangers (vs. Sea, Mon. 4:05 ET)
With Yu Darvish out until May coming off Tommy John surgery, Hamels was the obvious choice for manager Jeff Banister. The 32-year-old left-hander made a nice impression for the Rangers last season after being acquired from the Phillies. In 12 Texas starts, Hamels went 7-1 with a 3.66 ERA. This will be his third career opening-day start. As for the Rangers, this will be their seventh different opening day starter in as many years.
10. Dallas Keuchel — Houston Astros (@ NYY, Mon. 1:05 ET)
Last season we said Keuchel was on the verge of becoming a household name. Boy did he ever make that a reality. The now 28-year-old left-hander ran away with the American League Cy Young award after posting 20 wins, a 2.48 ERA, a league best 162 ERA+, all while leading Houston back to the postseason. .
11. Matt Harvey — New York Mets (@ KC, Sun. 8:37 ET)
After giving last season’s opening day nod to Bartolo Colon, manager Terry Collins could have gone at least three different directions this season. He ended up settling for Harvey over Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. This will be Harvey’s first opening day start, and it will come against the Royals, which is where he left off in Game 5 of the World Series. If you’re looking for a good opening day storyline, here it is.
12. Adam Wainwright — St. Louis Cardinals (@ Pit, Sun. 1:05 ET)
The Cardinals won 100 games last season despite Wainwright missing five months with a torn Achilles. Now he’s back, and he’s ready to make his fifth opening-day start overall. That’s not quite Bob Gibson territory, but he’s getting close. The Hall of Fame right-hander made 10 opening-day starts, including nine straight.
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13. Corey Kluber — Cleveland Indians (vs. Bos, 4:10 ET)
Terry Francona has an awesome trio to pick from with Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazer in the mix. But the former Cy Young Kluber is the easiest and best option. Despite his ERA rising from 2.44 to 3.49 last season, Kluber was still a workhorse, completing four games and tossing 222 innings. He’s simply the guy you want setting the tone for your season.
14. Chris Archer — Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Tor, Sun. 4:05 ET)
If you’re not that familiar with Archer, get familiar quick. He has one of the best arms in MLB, and he could be ready to step into elite status. The 27-year-old right-hander was a first-time All-Star last season, posting a 3.23 ERA while striking out a team record 252 batters in 212 innings. He was simply dominant, yet it still feels like there’s another level, perhaps two, for him to ascend.
15. Sonny Gray — Oakland A’s (vs. CWS, Mon. 10:05 ET)
Bob Melvin had one of the easiest decisions when it came to his opening day starter. Gray has been Oakland’s standout starter since making his debut in July of 2013, and that figures to continue in 2016. In fact, Gray becomes just the third pitcher in Oakland history to make three consecutive season-opening starts. Mighty impressive considering this will only be Gray’s third full season.
16. Justin Verlander — Detroit Tigers (@ Mia, Tues. 7:10 ET)
Verlander’s streak of seven straight opening-day starts was snapped last year when he suffered a strained triceps. Verlander’s history speaks for itself. He’s a former Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP. He has two no-hitters to his name and 157 career victories, but has shown signs of possible decline since turning 30. This could be a pivotal year in his career.
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17. Francisco Liriano — Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. STL, Sun. 1:05 ET)
With Gerrit Cole limited by rib inflammation early in spring training, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle elected to line up Liriano for his third straight opening-day start. It was probably a wise move, because it may have kept Cole from pushing too hard, too soon. And Liriano’s a deserving choice as well, having posted a 35-25 record and 3.26 ERA over the last three seasons.
18. Masahiro Tanaka — New York Yankees (vs. Hou, Mon. 1:05 ET)
The Yankees were reluctant to officially name Tanaka their Opening Day starter because they wanted to be sure he was healthy following offseason surgery to remove a bone spur in his right elbow. But Tanaka has reported no discomfort thus far, and the Yankees no longer believe it is an issue. He had an up and down spring, but that’s of little concern compared to his health. He’s the Yankees best by far.
19. Edinson Volquez — Kansas City Royals (vs. NYM, Sun. 8:37 ET)
Thanks to a flu bug knocking Yordano Ventura off track, the veteran Volquez will make the fourth opening-day start of his career. What’s most interesting though is the matchup: Volquez vs. Harvey. That’s a rematch from Game 5 of the 2015 World Series, which the Royals ultimately won to clinch its championship since 1985.
20. Ervin Santana — Minnesota Twins (@ Balt, Mon. 3:05 ET)
Entering his 11th season, Santana will start on opening day for the very first time. He gets the nod over Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes and will have quite a challenge against Baltimore’s powerful lineup. After being suspended the first 80 games last season, Santana went 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA over 108 innings.
Tyson Ross is today what Dallas Keuchel was last season. He’s not a household name, but his numbers (3.03 ERA the past two seasons) suggest he’ll get there with another quality season. Pitching on a true contending team would help his profile. As the subject of several trade rumors thoughout, it’s possible he’ll have that chance later this season.
22. Garrett Richards — Los Angeles Angels (vs. CHC, Mon. 10:05 ET)
Despite Richards having pitched like the team’s ace over the last two and a half years, circumstances, such as injuries and Mike Scioscia’s loyalty to Jered Weaver, have prevented him from starting the opener. That changes now though. The 27-year-old right-hander, whose won 28 games and posted a 3.18 over the last two seasons, will officially get the nod, snapping Weaver’s string of six straight openers.
23. Marcus Stroman — Toronto Blue Jays (@ TB, Sun. 4:05 ET)
At this time last year Stroman was recovering from a torn ACL. Now he’s the No. 1 man on a legitimate World Series contender. For most 24 year olds with only 24 career starts under his belt, that would be a lot to absorb. For Stroman, it’s a responsibility and challenge that he embraces, and that bodes well for Toronto.
24. Wei-Yen Chen — Miami Marlins (vs. Det, Tues. 7:10 ET)
Rejoice, baseball fans. Nearly two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Jose Fernandez is… Wait, hold on here. It appears manager Don Mattingly is looking for ways to limit Fernandez’s usage and give him extra rest this season. He’s actually going with Wie-Yen Chen in the opener. Oh well, at least game two on Wednesday will be must see.
[Elsewhere: Johnny Bench is determined to take back opening day]
25. Julio Teheran — Atlanta Braves (vs. Wash, Mon. 4:10 ET)
The Braves have a lot of questions that will need to be answered this season. Who their top starter is won’t be one of them. Teheran who only turned 25 in January, will make his third straight opening day start for Atlanta. He’s proven worthy too, making 96 starts and logging 607.1 innings over his three full seasons. He has a career 3.44 ERA.
26. Jorge De La Rosa — Colorado Rockies (@ Ari, Mon. 9:40 ET)
Some might say being the Rockies best starting pitcher is akin to being the biggest fish in a small pond that no one knows exists. While there’s truth in that, De La Rosa also deserves more credit than that. No pitcher has handled the physical and mental grind that goes with pitching at Coors Field better than he has. That’s why he survived for eight seasons in Denver, when most pitchers are burned out after two or three.
27. Raisel Iglesias — Cinncinat Reds (vs. Phil, Mon. 4:10 ET)
The Reds are turning to Iglesias, the 26-year-old right-hander from Cuba, whom they signed to a seven-year deal in 2014. He’ll be the least experienced of this opening day group, having made just 18 career starts in MLB, but there’s a palpable buzz surrounding him. He could be baseball’s breakout pitcher in 2016.
28. Chris Tillman — Baltimore Orioles (vs. Min, Mon. 3:05 ET)
Even after signing Yovani Gallardo this winter, Buck Showalter’s rotation still lacks a true ace. But it does have a reliable veteran in Chris Tillman. The 27-year-old right-hander will make his third straight opening-day start, becoming the first Orioles pitcher to do so since Mike Mussina (1998-2000).
29. Wily Peralta — Milwaukee Brewers (vs. SF, Mon. 2:10 ET)
The rebuilding Brewers don’t have a true ace available, so manager Craig Counsell will turn to Peralta. The 26-year-old right-hander was limited last season by an oblique injury and then struggled when healthy, posting a 4.72 ERA across 108 2/3 innings. The only other viable option would have been Matt Garza.
30. Jeremy Hellickson — Philadelphia Phillies (@ Cin, Mon. 4:10 ET)
When the Phillies signed Hellickson and Charlie Morton this offseason, they immediately became the two most proven starters on a rebuilding team. The only question was which pitcher would get the opening day nod, and manager Pete Mackanin ended up siding with Hellickson based on a strong opening to camp. The 2011 AL Rookie of the Year mostly struggled last season though, posting a 9-12 record with a 4.62 ERA for Arizona.
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Mark Townsend is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Townie813
