Two-round NFL mock draft: Six quarterbacks go off the board early
Mock drafts are a bit like Elvis Presley impersonators: They don’t tend to resemble the real thing as much as they start to look more like each other.
Here’s the risk in going off the grid a little bit with your forecasts: You risk looking uninformed. But it’s a risk we’re willing to take in some cases. Such as right here.
There were plenty of picks from the 2015 draft, even high ones, that few saw coming. Leonard Williams slipped to sixth after Brandon Scherff went fifth. Andrus Peat was a surprise to the New Orleans Saints at 13. The run from No. 21 overall (Cedric Ogbuehi) to 25 (Shaq Thompson) offered up a twist in the draft road that roundly went un-mocked previously.
There will be trades we can’t forecast. There were eight last year involving first- and second-round picks that were made on draft weekend. And some that were not made: Marcus Mariota to the Tennessee Titans came down to the final moments, with the Philadelphia Eagles trying in vain to move up. That kept us all guessing until the pick was in.
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Yet we forecast on valiantly, knowing we won’t get anywhere close to 63 out of 63 (sorry, New England Patriots) in our first crack — and maybe last — at a two-round mock draft. So we rolled the dice on some picks, including a surprise QB selection in the middle of Round 1. We have almost as many quarterbacks going in Rounds 1 and 2 (six) as there were drafted in all of 2015 (seven).
We’re four weeks removed from Chicago. Let’s do this.
ROUND ONE
1. Tennessee Titans — Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil
We have had Tunsil in this spot for months, yet with hesitation. We told you to watch for Jalen Ramsey popping in here, and yet we just can’t believe a first-year general manager is going to be the first to draft a defensive back first overall since 1956 (Gary Glick). The Titans are tempted by Ramsey, but they go with the nimble-footed Tunsil to block for their franchise quarterback.
2. Cleveland Browns — North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz
We’ve not believed for a second that Robert Griffin III is viewed as anything but a bridge quarterback, and the money he received backs that notion up. It’s still up in the air whether he ever regains the 2012 magic. Wentz has some work to do, and he turns 24 this winter. But he has great physical skills and the right temperament to be one of the rare ones to make it in a quarterback wasteland like Cleveland.
3. San Diego Chargers — Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey
It feels like it’s either Ramsey or Tunsil here depending on what the Titans do first, barring a trade involving the first two picks. The Chargers need size and playmaking ability in their secondary to combat the strong crop of No. 1 receivers in the division. Losing Eric Weddle hurt, but the Chargers could find a star in Ramsey and a Day 1 starter at cornerback or safety.
4. Dallas Cowboys — UCLA LB Myles Jack
Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli had Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs toward the ends of their careers in Chicago, and he again would have a do-it-all weapon in Jack who can pair with Sean Lee to give the Cowboys two of the best coverage linebackers in the game. Jack also can blitz when asked to do so.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars — Ohio State DE Joey Bosa
The Jaguars have upgrades several elements of their defense this offseason, but not counting the healthy return of Dante Fowler Jr. they have not been able to improve the pass rush at all. Bosa would help achieve that and give the Jaguars two high-energy ends to pair with scheme wrecker Malik Jackson from the inside.
6. Baltimore Ravens — Oregon DE DeForest Buckner
Ozzie Newsome is picking sixth in a draft where the elite talent drops off after about six players, so we expect him to do fine here no matter who they end up with. But a front of Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Williams and Buckner might be the best three-man unit in the NFL in time. Newsome can just sit back and let the draft unfold; there’s no panic here because almost anyone who is left here would work for them.
7. San Francisco 49ers — Cal QB Jared Goff
Something tells us the Rams will make a push to get in front of their division rivals to land either Goff or Wentz, but in this scenario Chip Kelly gets a quarterback to groom while he sorts out the Colin Kaepernick situation. As of now, he’s under contract and locked in with guaranteed money, but that doesn’t mean another team such as the Broncos couldn’t offer to pay some of that and still work out a trade. Goff’s quick decision making and processing speed would appeal to Kelly.
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8. Philadelphia Eagles — Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott
With all the reports of the team doing its serious diligence on all of the draft’s top quarterbacks, including owner Jeffery Lurie following the coaching and scouting staffs on visits with them, I gave pause here. But Elliott would be fantastic in this — or, for that matter, any NFL — offense. I even could see a trade up for him. The Eagles don’t appear to be done dealing one way or the other.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Florida CB Vernon Hargreaves
Sterling Moore was their most dependable corner last year? Relatively speaking, of course. That says about all you need to hear. There are some in the scouting community who believe that Hargreaves is a better pure cover man than Ramsey, and he would be a great fit here in his hometown. He has been a star there since early in his high school career and would be a Day 1 impact player in the pros.
10. New York Giants — Notre Dame OT Ronnie Stanley
The Giants’ interest in Russell Okung is telling to us, even if it’s rare for a team to draft an offensive tackle back-to-back years in Round 1 (the last time it happened was the Detroit Lions, with Jeff Backus and Stockar McDougle in 2000 and 2001, respectively). Stanley’s athleticism makes him a good fit in this tempo system, but the one question would be if he truly would help improve a leaky run game. A defender or Laquon Treadwell are other realistic options here.
11. Chicago Bears — Georgia LB Leonard Floyd
We’re not completely convinced that Floyd is destined for stardom, and yet we can’t help but wonder what he might do in Vic Fangio’s scheme. Floyd has some similar traits to what Aldon Smith had coming into the league, and Smith was used incredibly effectively as a rookie playing 50 percent of the snaps and providing a pass rush the 49ers didn’t have the year prior. Floyd could be a similar type of part-time rusher until he learns the game.
12. New Orleans Saints — Louisville DT Sheldon Rankins
Like RG3 to the Browns, Nick Fairley signing a one-year deal at modest money does not mean that the Saints’ interior DL problems have been fixed magically. They need help, and Rankins would be a terrific value here in the Aaron Donald mold, but not quite as explosive and quick off the snap. We also strongly mulled Treadwell, a Sean Payton-like receiver.
13. Miami Dolphins — Clemson DE Shaq Lawson
An eventual replacement for Cam Wake, Lawson would help give the Dolphins a need front seven to protect a back end that’s still in refurbishment mode. The offensive line still needs help, the backfield is a mess and who are the corners? All those things aside, the smart play would be to take a top rusher in a class that’s very top-heavy at the position with a long-term need to fill there.
14. Oakland Raiders — Alabama LB Reggie Ragland
We keep coming back to Ragland here. The Raiders could go in a dozen directions, really, and truly are a wildcard team here in the middle of Round 1. We’ll go with our gut here. The Raiders used Curtis Lofton and Malcolm Smith on the inside last season, and neither did well against the run, which was a huge problem around midseason. Ben Heeney is a nice player as a reserve linebacker, but Ragland would add instant toughness and hard hitting on the inside in Lofton’s place. Forget the Rolando McClain pick; this is a different dude.
15. Los Angeles Rams — Baylor WR Corey Coleman
We remain convinced there’s a bold move here, what with the team descending in its new (old) city, soon to be featured on “Hard Knocks” and in need of a quarterback — despite what the Rams will tell you on that last point. But Coleman gives them a vertical option to complement the run game of Todd Gurley and the underneath work of Tavon Austin. Could they instead take Paxton Lynch here? Perhaps.
16. Detroit Lions — Ohio State OT Taylor Decker
After missing out on a few tackles during the free agency period, the Lions land their man in Decker, who can play (and has played) either side. New GM Bob Quinn came from New England, where his former boss, Bill Belichick, had an excellent relationship with Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer. A very safe, smart pick here that fills a need, too, one that’s very reminiscent of the Patriots taking Nate Solder with the 17th pick in 2011.
17. Atlanta Falcons — Ohio State LB Darron Lee
Back to back Buckeyes go off the board as the Falcons seek to add more speed and playmaking ability to a defense that still needs some. The team let do-it-all Nathan Stupar walk, Justin Durant is a free agent and Phillip Wheeler should be an afterthought. Imagine the energy that Lee and Sean Weatherspoon could bring to this defense.
18. Indianapolis Colts — Michigan State OT Jack Conklin
The Colts are in need of a boost to their pass rush, but they also need to get tougher on the offensive line. Conklin could be a Day 1 starter at guard or tackle, and he will help be a tone-setter for a Colts offense that could use a little more grit. The midwest-bred son of a coach is actually cut from the Ryan Grigson mold when when the Colts GM was a player at Purdue, so it has been surprising they have not found more of these players higher in the draft.
19. Buffalo Bills — Eastern Kentucky (ex-Ohio State) OLB-DE Noah Spence
The Bills have done extra work on this talented but troubled rusher, but the guess is that Rex Ryan will feel comfortable with Spence personally and most certainly with his ability to rush the passer, which this defense needs as it transitions to more 3-4 looks. The Bills were second to last in the NFL in sacks per opponent pass attempts, which is shocking for a Ryan-coached defense.
20. New York Jets — Memphis QB Paxton Lynch
Why do we project Lynch here, to a team that was a hair short of a playoff appearance? The Jets have shown an uneasiness with the QB position long term, and GM Mike Maccagnan has to know coming from the Houston Texans that the longer a team waits to take its quarterback of the future the more difficult it is to find him. The Jets met with Lynch at the combine and have a private visit set up with him. It’s clear they’re interested, independent of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s immediate contract status. If the Jets want to find immediate help in the pass-rush department or on the offensive line, DE Muhammad Wilkerson could be on the block as a trading chip.
21. Washington Redskins — Alabama DE Jarran Reed
We’ve felt all along that GM Scot McCloughan would seek to bolster the front lines again as this team rebuilds, even after a playoff appearance that, frankly, involved a little luck with the ineptitude of the NFC East. Chris Baker was a revelation at one DE spot, but the Redskins still need help elsewhere up front. The choice could come down to Reed or Alabama teammate A’Shawn Robinson, whom we believe is better cast as a nose tackle. Either could be viable options here.
22. Houston Texans — Notre Dame WR Will Fuller
It would take some serious faith to take the speedball Fuller over a more complete product such as Laquon Treadwell, but his skills might be too much of an overlap to DeAndre Hopkins. This offense has needed a dose of juice, and with Lamar Miller and Fuller on board that certainly would make life easier on Brock Osweiler to get into some favorable downs and distances and ease the burden on a great defense. In his starting stretch, Osweiler seemed to connect best with Emmanuel Sanders, whose skills are similar to that of Fuller.
23. Minnesota Vikings — Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell
The mini-slide ends, and really, this might be his best landing spot anyway. The Vikings land a spirited, physical receiver whose best routes mesh with Teddy Bridgewater’s strengths and whose blocking ability will be tremendous with an offense that remains heavily run-dependent. Norv Turner can pound those bang-8 routes with Treadwell the way he used to with Michael Irvin.
24. Cincinnati Bengals — Alabama NT A’Shawn Robinson
Big, powerful nose with room to grow who can cut into the snaps of the overrated Domata Peko, who turns 32 this season and is entering the final year of his deal. The Bengals have done a tremendous job the past few seasons of drafting for future needs and not immediate desires, and Robinson could work into a rotation as a rookie before settling into a bigger role in 2017.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers — Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander
It’s hard to believe it almost has been 20 years since they’ve drafted a cornerback in the first round (Chad Scott, 1997), but the Steelers almost have to now. Here they land a confident, fearless, physical corner who can help them match up with the A.J. Greens of the NFL. Alexander’s next interception will be his first since high school, but his temperament is perfect for a Mike Tomlin-coached operation.
26. Seattle Seahawks — Ohio State CB Eli Apple
The Seahawks have a way of pulling surprises in the draft, making them a tough team to forecast. But they do need a long-limbed press corner to fill a hole opposite Richard Sherman in the secondary. Apple had trouble tracking some deep balls, but that’s what Earl Thomas help is for. Also, Apple was flagged a lot for being grabby in college, but wouldn’t that endear him more to the Seahawks?
27. Green Bay Packers — Baylor NT Andrew Billings
Another team that will throw some draft curveballs our way, the Packers take more of a straightforward approach in this projection with a bull-strong, square-cut nose who could help fill a void. His toughness and raw power will resonate on a Packers defense that is talented but could use a few more glass-eaters.
28. Kansas City Chiefs — Kansas State OG Cody Whitehair
Don’t discount the possibility of a pass rusher here, given the uncertainty of Justin Houston coming off knee surgery and the slow development of Dee Ford. But we also can’t overlook the gaping hole at guard with the loss of Jeff Allen in free agency. Whitehair grew up in Abilene, Kansas, about 150 miles west of Arrowhead Stadium. His father went to all of Cody’s college games, and this certainly would cut down on travel costs for the Whitehair family.
29. Arizona Cardinals — Houston CB William Jackson III
The defense still needs a little help, and the Cardinals have been doing their diligent homework on the draft-eligible safeties and cornerbacks this year. Jackson gives them a long, scrappy ballhawk who had an incredible 23 pass breakups this past season. He might not be an elite athlete, but Jackson would be an upgrade on the outside to the in-house candidates.
30. Carolina Panthers — Clemson DE Kevin Dodd
The South Carolina native stays close to home (coincidentally, we have a lot of georgraphical connections in this mock) as a down-the-road replacement for Charles Johnson. A power rusher in the mold of Pernell McPhee, Dodd uses length, strength and leverage well to get into the backfield. He really is a one-year performer, but in two years Dodd could be special. Johnson is back on a modest, one-year deal. A replacement must be groomed in case.
31. Denver Broncos — Mississippi State DE Chris Jones
Hold your breath at quarterback for a bit longer. John Elway is breathing easily as he selects Malik Jackson’s replacement here, knowing that an exceptional defense still could win a ton of games next year and that there’s no QB worth taking here. The gifted but underachieving Jones has a great setup here with fiery DL coach Bill Kollar to get in his kitchen a bit and good-cop coordinator Wade Phillips to embrace Jones and employ him in a slanting role for good results.
ROUND TWO
32. Cleveland Browns — TCU WR Josh Doctson
Penciled in as an immediate starter, Doctson is the best bad-ball-adjustment receiver in the draft and would be a good addition to a passing game that might not be terribly accurate with its passes.
33. Tennessee Titans — Maryland CB-S Sean Davis
If the Titans pass on Ramsey at the top of the draft, they feel fortune to land an athletic but poor man’s version in Davis, who can play either safety or corner in the NFL.
34. Dallas Cowboys — Alabama RB Derrick Henry
Classic Jerry Jones pick. Henry’s best chances of thriving in the NFL are to play behind a great offensive line in a power scheme, making this an ideal landing spot. With Alfred Morris and Henry, the Cowboys can help ease the load on Tony Romo in the latter stages of his career and pound NFC East defenses, which all still appear to be works in progress.
35. San Diego Chargers — Arkansas TE Hunter Henry
Antonio Gates signed a two-year contract this offseason that almost certainly carry him through to retirement, and it’s not out of the question that 2016 could be his final year. Coordinator Ken Whisenhunt has used talented tight ends well when he has had them, and Henry’s receiving ability is strong.
36. Baltimore Ravens — Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith
Ozzie Newsome knows a special talent when he sees it. Newsome has a patterned history of landing second-round gems who tumble out of Round 1 for one reason for another, and though not all of them were big hits this one really could pay off. If not for his devastating knee injury, which puts the 2016 season in question, Smith could have been a top-10 pick.
37. San Francisco 49ers — Arizona State OG-C Christian Westerman
Chip Kelly’s desire for high-character, businesslike players and GM Trent Baalke’s history of taking tough, versatile, strong players intersect. And a double bonus: at position(s) of need.
38. Jacksonville Jaguars — Alabama C Ryan Kelly
Tough, competitive, long-limbed center who would start from Day 1 and help Blake Bortles develop with his ability to make line calls, keep rushers at pay and power up a run game that appears to be built more now from the inside out.
39. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Indiana OT Jason Spriggs
A year after taking two offensive linemen in Round 2 to help insulate Jameis Winston, the Buccaneers do the same here with a talented prospect whose best football might be ahead of him.
40. New York Giants — Fresno State S Darian Thompson
The Giants added to pretty much every layer of the defense this offseason but still needed a smart, assignment-sound safety who can play in deep coverage. Thompson, who made up for his sub-par combine performance by running a 4.5 40 at his pro day, should help make up for some of Landon Collins’ shortcomings and improve a bad secondary from last season.
41. Chicago Bears — Ole Miss DT Robert Nkemdiche
This, frankly, would be a steal. Nkemdiche’s problems have been a bit overblown, and his upside would make him a top-15 pick if teams felt they could trust him. This would be two risky picks for the Bears, but two incredible gambles on defensive talent.
42. Miami Dolphins — Miami (Fla.) CB Artie Burns
We’re not 100 percent sold on Burns, but he has tremendous length and has overcome a lot to get where he is. Consistency is a bugaboo in his game, but he has playmaker potential. The Dolphins paid close attention to him at his pro day.
43. Los Angeles Rams (from Philadelphia Eagles) — Michigan State QB Connor Cook
The quarterback finally comes. We believe it could come sooner, perhaps via trade, but this would be a fascinating option at this point in the draft. Cook has the big-game experience Jeff Fisher likes, and Fisher never has been afraid to roll the dice on players whose personalities turn other teams off.
44. Oakland Raiders — Ohio State S Vonn Bell
The departure of Charles Woodson leaves a hole at safety. He might not be special in any one way, but Bell has some good football traits that could make him an instant starter at a position where the Raiders are certainly shorthanded.
45. Los Angeles Rams — Virginia Tech CB Kendall Fuller
The loss of Janoris Jenkins, and with E.J. Gaines coming off injury, has left the Rams shorthanded at corner. Assuming Fuller checks out well at the Indianapolis medical recheck in two weeks following microfracture surgery, his production, pedigree and willingness to tackle should make him a top-50 pick.
46. Detroit Lions — Louisiana Tech DT Vernon Butler
We’d love to see what a tough-love positional coach such as the Lions’ Kris Kocurek could do with Butler, who is an emerging talent. The Lions are lean on the interior and could use a long-term replacement for Haloti Ngata, who turns 33 after the season
47. New Orleans Saints — Oklahoma State DE Emmanuel Ogbah
Ogbah is not as beloved in NFL scouting circles as he seems to be amongst fans and media. On the one hand, his sack production the past two seasons is undeniable. On the other, Ogbah isn’t considered a good run defender yet and his eye-opening NFL combine performance might not accurately reflect his snap-to-snap effort on the field. But mid-second round, this would be a nice addition to pair with Bobby Richardson.
48. Indianapolis Colts — Florida DT-DE Jonathan Bullard
Addressing the offensive line in Round 1, the Colts come back and fortify the front lines on defense here. Bullard is not Malcom Brown, whom they passed on last year in favor of Phillip Dorsett, but can help anchor up front.
49. Buffalo Bills — Ohio State WR Braxton Miller
The Wildcat is back with Rex! Maybe — imagine the possibilities with Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Miller all in the backfield at once. Miller has excellent potential as a playmaker, and he’d be well-served to learn his craft as a complementary piece alongside Sammy Watkins.
50. Atlanta Falcons — Florida S Keanu Neal
The Falcons have been seeking tone-setters on defense, and the earlier pick of Lee, the return of Sean Weatherspoon and the Neal choice would add a lot more Seattle flavor to Dan Quinn’s defense. Neal is a straight-up thumper.
51. New York Jets — Boise State OLB-DE Kamalei Correa
The Jets have looked at multiple draft-eligible pass rushers, and Correa might be one of the last higher-level ones before a big dropoff at the position. He is athletic enough to stand up as a weak-side rusher and has room to grow.
52. Houston Texans — Penn State DE Austin Johnson
Johnson is of the best run stoppers in the draft up front, and he’d fit nicely as a two-gap end in Romeo Crennel’s defense. Bill O’Brien’s history with the program doesn’t hurt with this connection, but it’s Johnson’s raw strength and ability to anchor that makes him the pick here. He’s an instant upgrade over Jared Crick.
53. Washington Redskins — Ohio State WR Michael Thomas
Kirk Cousins could use more inside-the-numbers receivers to complement Jordan Reed and the smaller guys, even if they sign a bigger receiver such as Anquan Boldin. Thomas could develop into a solid No. 2 option over time.
54. Minnesota Vikings — Texas A&M OT-OG Germain Ifedi
A first-round talent whose struggles have kicked him down a peg or two. The Vikings have remade their offensive line a bit but still need help up front. Ifedi is a perfect fit in a power scheme and can play either guard or tackle, which is ideal here.
55. Cincinnati Bengals — Oklahoma WR Sterling Shepard
What thievery this would be at this point in the draft. Shepard would be the perfect slot complement between A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, adding to this offense what Tyler Lockett added to the Seahawks last season.
56. Seattle Seahawks — Illinois DT Jihad Ward
Great athlete who lacks a little explosiveness but has the kind of unique traits, violent hands and positional versatility this team seeks in its defensive linemen.
57. Green Bay Packers — Arizona LB Scooby Wright
While everyone clamors for GM Ted Thompson to take an inside linebacker in Round 1, he patiently waits for the type of blue-collar, instinctive playmaker who could be a folk hero in Green Bay, almost destined to play for this type of town.
58. Pittsburgh Steelers — Ohio State QB Cardale Jones
Not everyone will agree with this pick, but Jones — love him or hate him — has some similar traits to Ben Roethlisberger and could use some tough love and time to develop. The Steelers’ injury problems were widespread, but losing Roethlisberger really derailed the team badly.
59. Kansas City Chiefs — Georgia LB Jordan Jenkins
We battled with this pick and strongly considered a receiver such as Pitt’s Tyler Boyd, but the upside of Chris Conley at receiver and the medical questions about Justin Houston had us shift to Jenkins. His ability to play in multiple spots effectively is attractive, but he might be best fit on the outside as a rusher who can hold up against the run with toughness and power (despite that low bench-press number).
60. New England Patriots (from Arizona Cardinals) — Texas Tech OT Le’Raven Clark
A developmental tackle for when the contracts of Solder and Sebastian Vollmer are up after next season. Clark could be a quality right tackle, or a guard. The Patriots’ OL remake continues.
61. New England Patriots — USC SS-LB Su’a Cravens
Bill Belichick for years has been seeking a LB-sized safety (or a safety-sized LB?) to handle unique coverage challenges, and he finds one here who, like Rodney Harrison a generation ago, isn’t a superior athlete but always finds his way to the ball.
62. Carolina Panthers — West Virginia S Karl Joseph
We think Joseph absolutely could endear himself to Sean McDermott and Ron Rivera with his ability to fill the lane and deliver knockout blows. The Panthers land Roman Harper’s eventual replacement here.
63. Denver Broncos — Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg
We think that John Elway might see something in the polarizing Hackenberg, who clearly has talent but whose past two seasons went awry. Elway never has been afraid to call it like he sees it, which is what Hackenberg did to explain what happened there. What irony: Elway drafts the quarterback who played for Bill O’Brien, who took Osweiler from the Broncos. The NFL never ceases to generate storylines, especially at QB.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm
