Strike Zone: A Last-Minute Buyer's Guide
Sorry about the lack of a Strike Zone these last six weeks. Life happened, and since I can’t drop the Draft Guide updates or my Rotoworld recap duties, the column had to take a seat on the bench for a spell. Unfortunately, I can’t play catchup by writing six Breakdowns columns, but I can try to sum up a whole lot of what I’ve been thinking about this spring. So, without going into a whole lot of detail, I’m just going to give my favorites and sleepers by position headed into this weekend’s drafts.
Catcher
Devin Mesoraco – Top 300: 74 – Yahoo ADP: 207
Kyle Schwarber – Top 300: 23 – Yahoo ADP: 45
Brian McCann – Top 300: 58 – Yahoo ADP: 132
Yan Gomes – Top 300: 145 – Yahoo ADP: 210
My top 300 and Yahoo ADP’s don’t match up here, since the standard Yahoo League uses one catcher and my rankings are more designed for two-catcher leagues (I actually set it as if it’s a 1 1/2 catcher league, as a compromise). But these four are all in my top seven at the position, while Mesoraco and Gomes are the 10th and 11th catchers off the board in Yahoo.
Mesoraco hasn’t had any problems with his surgically repaired hip this spring. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll hit, but I don’t think he’s much more of an injury risk than the typical catcher. He’s my ideal pick in one-catcher leagues, especially since he’ll still be out there in the 16th-18th rounds. If he doesn’t produce, just move on to the next catcher. That’s not quite as easy in two-catcher leagues, but then, he doesn’t need to hit anything close to what he did in 2014 to generate value in that format.
I also like Wilson Ramos as an end-game pick in one-catcher leagues. For two-catcher leagues, Cameron Rupp has emerged as a late option. He’s a threat for 15 homers with more playing time seemingly coming his way. And keep an eye on Hank Conger. Curt Casali will probably get a bit more playing time than Conger early on, but he doesn’t have Conger’s bat.
First Base
Jose Abreu – Top 300: 11 – Yahoo ADP: 21
Eric Hosmer – Top 300: 48 – Yahoo ADP: 73
Pedro Alvarez – Top 300: 156 – Yahoo ADP: Undrafted (66%)
Byung-ho Park – Top 300: 154 – Yahoo ADP: 224
Lucas Duda – Top 300: 137 – Yahoo ADP: 182
I’m not so fond of first base this year. Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera and Anthony Rizzo are all being overdrafted in my mind, and even the bargains aren’t really bargains. I’ve often just sat it out and grabbed Alvarez or Ryan Zimmerman late in my drafts. I particularly like Zimmerman in the end game; I don’t know how long he’ll stay healthy, but he should be an asset initially as the Nationals’ cleanup hitter. There will always be viable fallbacks like Logan Morrison, Chris Carter, Joe Mauer and Adam Lind.
In AL-only leagues, Morrison and Mike Napoli should be solid contributors at modest prices. Maybe this will finally be the year Morrison hits for an average commiserate with his modest strikeout rate. The NL doesn’t have as much to offer beyond Carter and Ben Paulsen. I don’t like the sleepers there, either. Better to spend for a Duda or Zimmerman (a fine plan for NL-only leaguers would be to get Zimmerman and then pick Clint Robinson in a reserve round).
A.J. Reed is pretty much a perfect stash in mixed leagues, but since everyone knows that, he might not be available at the end of drafts. If either Justin Smoak or Chris Colabello could take over as the Jays’ sole first baseman, there’d be some mixed-league potential there. I can’t wait to see what Dae-Ho Lee will do for the Mariners, and his upside makes him an interesting $1 pick in AL-only leagues. Still, there’s no clear path to playing time against righties for him. The Orioles’ Christian Walker will play left field in Triple-A and could get a shot later if Joey Rickard struggles offensively. He has 20-25 homer power.
Second Base
Rougned Odor – Top 300: 37 – Yahoo ADP: 97
Robinson Cano – Top 300: 31 – Yahoo ADP: 53
Anthony Rendon – Top 300: 56 – Yahoo ADP: 101
Dustin Pedroia – Top 300: 95 – Yahoo ADP: 175
Joe Panik – Top 300: 172 – Yahoo ADP: Undrafted (65%)
I like second base as much as I dislike first base. Besides the five players above, there are also Kolten Wong, Howie Kendrick, Jonathan Schoop and Logan Forsythe as undervalued properties here. It’s too bad there’s really not room for more than two of them per team.
Odor is probably my overall favorite player this year. He just hit 16 homers in 426 at-bats at age 21, he doesn’t strike out much and he’s plenty fast enough to steal 20+ bases with improved technique. I wasn’t even really counting on the steals, but now he’s gone 3-for-3 in 13 games this spring. Plus, there’s even talk of him hitting much higher in the lineup than expected. So, I have all of the shares of Odor.
But there’s so much else here. Why on earth is everyone writing off Pedroia? Do you realize he’s a year younger than Cano? Injuries have been a definite factor the last two years, but he hit .291 with 12 homers in his 93 games last season. He’s healthy, and he’s still in about as good of a situation for hitters as there is in baseball. It’s crazy how late he’s going in drafts.
Rendon makes me nervous, because he probably deserves the injury-prone tag and Dusty Baker just might hit him sixth for some confounding reason. But he was a legitimate first-round pick entering last spring. His upside is close to that of Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon.
There are sleepers at second base, too. Javier Baez needs a trade, but if he gets one, he could immediately become a top-10 shortstop (assuming he’s gained eligibility by then). Devon Travis has definite mixed-league potential if he overcomes his shoulder setback. Trea Turner and Jose Peraza could be big-time stolen base guys if they get starting jobs. I don’t know what’s going on with Cuban defector Jose Fernandez, but he can hit and he might sign this summer. Arismendy Alcantara, Dilson Herrera and Jurickson Profar could be factors in the second half if enough things break right for them.
Third Base
Maikel Franco – Top 300: 73 – Yahoo ADP: 125
Mike Moustakas – Top 300: 159 – Yahoo ADP: 190
Yulieski Gurriel – Top 300: 280 – Yahoo ADP: Undrafted
Third base is where my rankings match the consensus. Getting one of the big four third basemen in round one of drafts is a fine outcome here. Aside from Franco, my top seven third basemen are all within a few spots of their Yahoo ADP. I would have had Kyle Seager up there with my favorites earlier (he’s No. 7), but I soured on him some when the Mariners decided to bat him fifth, rather than second.
Anthony Rendon is still an acceptable value here. I have him 56th in the top 300, but he’d be 97th strictly viewed as a third baseman. His ADP is 101.
If I don’t get a top-seven guy, I’m probably waiting until the end for a third baseman. Justin Turner is still lasting a long time in drafts, and while he’s an injury risk, he should be a top-10 third baseman while healthy. Chase Headley, Danny Valencia and Nick Castellanos aren’t very exciting, but they’ll probably offer acceptable numbers for minimal cost.
It’s anyone’s guess when Gurriel might sign. Unfortunately, it looks like he might wait for his younger brother, Lourdes, even if he is cleared to sign at some point in the next couple of months. Lourdes would, presumably, be cleared to sign at the same time, but since he’s 22 and still subject to MLB’s spending limits on imports, he’d probably wait until after July 1 to do a deal. Yulieski isn’t quite the player he was five years ago, but he’d still likely be an above average regular at third base right away.
Pablo Sandoval now qualifies as a sleeper at third base. His defense was bad enough this spring that the Red Sox might not be quick to go back to him, but I do expect him to bounce back offensively, whether it’s in Boston or elsewhere. Arizona’s Jake Lamb might turn into a mixed-league third baseman this year. David Freese shouldn’t have any long-term value, but since it appears that he’ll be the Pirates’ No. 3 hitter until Jung Ho Kang returns, he can be used as a stopgap in mixed leagues.
I’m passing on Hector Olivera, who hasn’t shown power this spring and is hitting in a bad lineup. I’m not optimistic about Travis Shaw or Houston’s Tyler White offering a whole lot in mixed leagues, though some early-season value is a possibility. I’m skeptical that Shaw can hit for average and that White has enough power to be a fantasy asset. Also, even while serving as Atlanta’s cleanup hitter, Adonis Garcia does nothing for me.
Intriguing are Derek Dietrich, one of Miami’s best hitters last year but without a spot for 2016, and Brandon Drury, who could enter the mix in left field for Arizona if Yasmany Tomas fails to pan out. Alex Guerrero also offers tantalizing power, but he’s DL bound with a knee problem and he’s not going to be viable anyway until the Dodgers release him.
Shortstop
Francisco Lindor – Top 300: 24 – Yahoo ADP: 95
Xander Bogaerts – Top 300: 26 – Yahoo ADP: 66
Corey Seager – Top 300: 35 – Yahoo ADP: 86
Brad Miller – Top 300: 97 – Yahoo ADP: Undrafted (88%)
Trevor Story – Top 300: 114 – Yahoo ADP: 225
There’s just so little at shortstop this year that I think it’s imperative to get one of the good ones. And, again, my rankings versus the Yahoo ADPs are a little skewed here, since I have them set for 12-team leagues, thus valuing position scarcity more than the Yahoo Leagues, which are often 10-teamers. In a 10-team league, I’d have Lindor and Bogaerts in the 30s, not the 20s. But I still think they’re great gets.
I’ve been pretty surprised at the way Lindor has been undersold, but then his minor league numbers were always rather pedestrian before factoring in that he was among the youngest at his levels. Maybe that should concern me more than it does, but the guy hit .313 with 12 homers and 12 steals in two-thirds of a season in the majors last year. He has some room to decline and still more than justify a high pick. Plus, he’s hitting at the top of the order and he’s been durable. With his speed and his modest strikeout rate, he has a very high floor, it seems to me.
Story has gotten riskier again with the news that the criminal case against Jose Reyes was dropped. Reyes figures to face a long suspension anyway, and I’m sure the Rockies would prefer to trade him before he comes back. Still, that’s probably going to be extremely difficult, and they might have to play him once he returns in the hopes that someone will want him. Story isn’t likely to hit for a great average, but he has major league power and above average speed and he’s batting second in the league’s best environment for hitters. That’s a great recipe for mixed-league value.
Further down the rankings, Alcides Escobar, Starlin Castro and Eugenio Suarez promise to provide decent value. Given that the Royals are married to Escobar in the leadoff spot, it’s odd to see him going 222nd in Yahoo leagues. Jonathan Villar could be a great source of cheap steals until Orlando Arcia comes up and pushes him into a utility role in June or July. Jean Segura and Ketel Marte are viable MI options as well.
You’ll notice I’m not pushing Addison Russell. I love the player, but he’s been very injury-prone, he doesn’t steal bases and he’s going to hit seventh or eighth with little room for upward mobility in the stacked Cubs lineup.
For sleepers, there is the aforementioned Arcia, though he’s probably not going to be a strong mixed-league shortstop right away after getting the call. Wilmer Flores offers rare power potential and would be worth a mixed-league add if Asdrubal Cabrera or David Wright goes down. If the playing time is there, Chris Owings could match or better Segura for a fraction of the price.
Outfield
George Springer – Top 300: 13 – Yahoo ADP: 33
Hanley Ramirez – Top 300: 56 – Yahoo ADP: 120
Marcell Ozuna – Top 300: 92 – Yahoo ADP: 249
Christian Yelich – Top 300: 63 – Yahoo ADP: 131
Mark Trumbo – Top 300: 115 – Yahoo ADP: 220
Randal Grichuk – Top 300: 109 – Yahoo ADP: 174
Michael Conforto – Top 300: 119 – Yahoo ADP: 215
Stephen Piscotty – Top 300: 142 – Yahoo ADP: 215
Michael Taylor – Top 300: 202 – Yahoo ADP: Undrafted (94%)
Jorge Soler – Top 300: 173 – Yahoo ADP: 195*
Domingo Santana – Top 300: 199 – Yahoo ADP: 255
I worry about Springer’s durability, but the power is there for him to hit 35 homers and he could reach the century mark in both runs scored and RBI from the top of Houston’s lineup. My ideal scenario in the typical public league would be to get him in the third round, either Lindor or Bogaerts in the fourth and then Odor soon afterwards.
The Ozuna and Yelich rankings are definitely influenced by the new dimensions at Marlins ballpark and the way Don Mattingly seems to have committed to them batting second and third, respectively. But I’m a big believer in the talent anyway. Ozuna has 30-homer ability, and maybe Barry Bonds will be the one to tap it.
I give Soler’s ADP the asterisk since he’s going later than that now. I had him as a top-20 outfielder prior to Dexter Fowler’s signing. He won’t be of any use in mixed leagues initially, but he’d be a great use of a bench spot with his upside. Taylor is the other one here who is worth some patience. Dusty Baker wants that speed in his order, and while it won’t happen on Opening Day, I think we’ll eventually see Ben Revere and Jayson Werth platooning in left.
In AL-only leagues, I’m fond of Desmond Jennings, who is healthy and seems ready to put up solid all-around numbers. Jackie Bradley Jr. is showing more power and hitting in a strong lineup, though he’ll be at the bottom initially. Jarrod Dyson’s stock took quite a hit with his oblique injury, but he should be back by the end of April and the Royals have no one else worth using in right field. Preston Tucker can hit if he can find somewhere to play in Houston. He’ll likely get to fill in for Evan Gattis initially. Aaron Hicks and Dalton Pompey are one injury to an injury-prone player away from having mixed-league potential. I remain a big believer in Oswaldo Arcia’s bat, but I can’t really recommend him as long as he remains in Minnesota.
I’m not so confident about Joey Rickard and Tyler Naquin, two guys who unexpectedly thrust their way into starting spots this spring. Rickard is Baltimore’s only real leadoff option and he does have pretty good speed, but his bat probably isn’t major league ready. Naquin doesn’t have either of those going for him; he’ll hit at the bottom of the order and he doesn’t offer all that much stolen base ability.
There aren’t as many names I like for undervalued players in NL-only leagues. Melvin Upton Jr. intrigues me after his fine second half, but he’ll hit low in a bad lineup and he’ll be a liability in batting average. Carl Crawford became relevant again with Andre Ethier’s injury and should provide steady value early on. With little to lose, the Brewers will probably go with Keon Broxton over Kirk Nieuwenhuis in center. Broxton does offer more fantasy potential, though Nieuwenhuis figures to outhit him against right-handers given the chance. I’d like to see what Adam Duvall would do with 500 at-bats, but he’s on the wrong side of a platoon with Scott Schebler, who I don’t find nearly as interesting. I’m not very impressed by the Phillies’ gaggle of outfielders; given equal playing time, I think Will Venable would outperform Peter Bourjos and Tyler Goeddel, but there isn’t much upside anywhere. I’m also not a believer in Socrates Brito, who has been getting a lot of hype as a Tomas alternative in Arizona. I think Drury would be better, if he can handle left field. Peter O’Brien would also offer some upside there, especially if he got into a few games behind the plate.
SP
Madison Bumgarner – Top 300: 16 – Yahoo ADP: 28
Carlos Carrasco – Top 300: 44 – Yahoo ADP: 65
Marcus Stroman – Top 300: 71 – Yahoo ADP: 113
Jeff Samardzija – Top 300: 79 – Yahoo ADP: 146
Justin Verlander – Top 300: 82 – Yahoo ADP: 147
Jake Odorizzi – Top 300: 107 – Yahoo ADP: 147
Patrick Corbin – Top 300: 120 – Yahoo ADP: 174
Wei-Yin Chen – Top 300: 140 – Yahoo ADP: 194
Kenta Maeda – Top 300: 168 – Yahoo ADP: 205
Anthony DeSclafani – Top 300: 189 – Yahoo ADP: Undrafted (53%)
Juan Nicasio – Top 300: 211 – Yahoo ADP: Undrafted (92%)
I do think Bumgarner is undervalued, but the way it’s been working for me in drafts is that if I don’t get Clayton Kershaw in the middle of round one, I’m not landing a top-10 starter. And that’s OK. Give me two of Carrasco, Sonny Gray, Cole Hamels and Adam Wainwright to lead my staff and I’m feeling pretty good about things, especially since I know I’ll be getting a couple of pitchers in my 20-30 range in the middle of the draft. Stroman, Samardzija, Verlander and Odorizzi all fit that bill. Garrett Richards is also in that mix, though I don’t think he’s being quite as undervalued as the others.
For end-game starters, if DeSclafini and Nicasio have been snatched up, there are alternatives like Joe Ross, Mike Leake, Jason Hammel, Andrew Heaney, Mike Fiers and Phil Hughes. Vincent Velasquez needs to be babied by the Phillies, but he could offer early season value, even if he doesn’t get much run support. And don’t forget Jesse Hahn. His banishment to Triple-A shouldn’t last long.
Dipping into the AL-only pile, there’s Matt Moore, whose stock has risen considerably since the beginning of the spring. I’m not entirely sold on him as a mixed-league guy, but he could still be had at a reasonable price in public AL-only leagues. Erasmo Ramirez will be in the pen initially, unfortunately, but he should be an asset later. Derek Holland might never be as consistent as hoped, but he’ll probably help in WHIP, strikeouts and wins, if not ERA. The A’s contingent remains interesting: Chris Bassitt and Kendall Graveman aren’t big upside guys, but they’ll probably do well enough as fourth or fifth starters in AL leagues. Matt Shoemaker, Shane Greene and Cody Anderson are three more names late in drafts.
There’s always plenty of depth for NL-only leaguers. Adam Conley was kind of a Jekyll and Hyde in the stuff department after arriving in Miami last year, but he’s been consistently strong this spring. Rubby De La Rosa is the NL’s Holland: he’ll likewise do more in WHIP and strikeouts than in ERA. I’m not as high on Robbie Ray as some, but I think he’ll be useful in NL-only. Matt Cain still offers upside if healthy. It shouldn’t cost much to pair him and Chris Heston on staffs, and odds are one of the two will be pretty valuable in the great pitching environment in San Francisco. Adam Warren could be a mixed-league guy if a spot opens up in the Cubs’ rotation. Unfortunately, they’ve indicated that Trevor Cahill would be the first choice to step in. As of press time, it isn’t clear who will round out the Padres rotation. I’m hoping Drew Pomeranz gets a shot. He’s more interesting to me than Colin Rea and Robbie Erlin, at least for now. Brandon Morrow also offers upside there, but only for the few weeks before he lands on the DL.
RP
Kenley Jansen – Top 300: 60 – Yahoo ADP: 72
Zach Britton – Top 300: 83 – Yahoo ADP: 103
Hector Rondon – Top 300: 102 – Yahoo ADP: 125
Roberto Osuna – Top 300: 113 – Yahoo ADP: ???
Jeremy Jeffress – Top 300: 208 – Yahoo ADP: 227
Obviously, Osuna’s Yahoo ADP isn’t very relevant now in light of him only just now being named the Blue Jays’ closer. I rank him 10th among relievers.
There isn’t much in the way of undervalued closers in the middle rounds, though A.J. Ramos, Francisco Rodriguez and Glen Perkins are going for fair prices. Also, there’s Brad Boxberger getting dinged more than I think his injury requires. The closer gig in Tampa Bay should be waiting for him when he returns in May.
But what you’re probably more interested in reading about here is closers who aren’t closers yet. After Dellin Betances, Arodys Vizcaino is the highest RP on my list among guys who won’t be closing initially. It’s only a matter of time before Jason Grilli gets hurt again or traded, so I have Vizcaino ranked the higher of the two (Grilli should be just fine if healthy, but he gets penalized in my rankings because of the likelihood that he’ll finish the year as a setup man on a contender).
I think Joaquin Benoit will be better than Steve Cishek in Seattle, but I would assume the Mariners think that, too; they just want Cishek closing anyway. I’m mostly avoiding that situation.
The Reds were going to start off with J.J. Hoover closing regardless, but I thought Jumbo Diaz could quickly overtake him. Unfortunately, Diaz has disappointed in the stuff department this spring, making Hoover a safer pick. Ideally, Tony Cingrani would emerge as the Reds’ best reliever and make his own challenge for the job. I’m not counting on it, though.
The Rangers will stick with Steve Tolleson closing, but I don’t think they’d have much patience with him if he has a bad week or two. Sam Dyson is next in line, and he’s my No. 34 RP.
It’s disconcerting that the Astros still won’t name Ken Giles their closer. I dropped him from ninth to 13th in my rankings and pushed Luke Gregerson up to No. 35. It wouldn’t be so unreasonable for them to go with Gregerson initially.
Judging by the way Rays manager Kevin Cash has used Danny Farquhar as more of a middle guy this spring, Alex Colome seems well positioned to fill in for Boxberger initially.
I’d have to be pretty hard up for saves to roster a Phillies reliever on Opening Day. The favorite for saves there has already cycled through David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey and Dalier Hinojosa to return to Hernandez. None of them project as ERA assets. They sent down the guy I figured would be their best reliever, Luis Garcia.
My favorite setup men with no early path to saves include Hunter Strickland, Ryan Madson and Brandon Maurer. I think this is the year Strickland becomes the Giants’ best reliever, though Santiago Casilla is solid enough to keep his job if he stays healthy. Sean Doolittle can’t be counted on to stay off the DL, and Madson’s velocity this spring has been at least as good as it was in Kansas City. Maurer couldn’t earn a spot in San Diego’s rotation this spring, but that might turn out to be for the best, at least from a fantasy perspective. A 39-year-old Rodney is about as risky as they come.
