Around the League: Introducing Dynasty Dive
Welcome to the Dynasty Dive, a weekly column meant to explore the fringes of the fantasy baseball universe. We should probably begin this inaugural post by discussing what sets a dynasty apart from a standard keeper league.
There are two features that characterize a dynasty format – a deep player universe and the ability to keep players for a long period of time. Some self-identified dynasties have relatively shallow player pools or rules that push prime players back into the draft.
Since “dynasty” is so widely defined in the wild, it makes my job more difficult. I’m here to give timely and actionable dynasty advice. I play in a 20-team, 45-player roster league with 28 keepers per season (no cost). If I used that league as my only template, readers in shallower leagues wouldn’t get anything from the column. If I only talk about players geared towards a 400 player league, then I’m leaving out readers in the most challenging formats.
The solution is to leave this column fluid and varied. We’ll talk about general strategies for contending, rebuilding, and trading along with player picks for shallow, medium, and deep leagues. The latest news, playing battles to watch, and under-the-radar breakout candidates will also be shared here.
Weekly Recap
It’s the end of spring training which means we have a lot of news to recap from the last week. Here are some of the choicest bits.
White wins Astros’ first base job
Astros first base prospect Tyler White will be the Opening Day first baseman. If you remember Daric Barton, White profiles comparably to him. He consistently posted more walks than strikeouts in the minors (about 16% BB% to 15% K%).
The fatal flaw in the 25-year-old’s game is a lack of stand out power. He’s a 10 to 15 home run guy. His minor league success is called into question since he was often old for his levels. His excellent stint at Triple-A was accompanied by a lofty .412 BABIP. Nothing in his batted profile suggests he will post an above average BABIP.
For now, White is fringe mixed league eligible player. With the right spot in the order and a little luck, he could be immediately productive. Actual top prospect A.J. Reed figures to oust White at some point in the near future. Don’t sell the farm to acquire White, but he’s a good speculative add if he’s still on the wire.
Anderson, Tomlin win rotation jobs, Bauer to ‘pen
Exciting news out of Cleveland; breakout candidate Cody Anderson will serve as the club’s fourth starter. Anderson’s velocity is up this spring which has analysts like FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan dropping Matt Harvey comps.
Despite looking much improved and possessing comparable stuff to Harvey, it’s still too early to anoint Anderson as the next breakout starting pitcher. He now possesses the upside to be a massive bargain, but let’s not forget his modest spring. He posted a 5.50 ERA while allowing five home runs. He also struck out 15 and walked 4 in 18 innings. Speculate or buy low if you can.
Tomlin is interesting in deeper leagues purely for his near-elite command. He typically posts among the best K/BB ratios in the league. He’s also homer prone in a way that does not appear to be fluky. He should be a solid depth piece for medium-deep dynasties and AL Only leagues.
Bauer’s demotion to the bullpen despite a superb spring (2.25 ERA, 20 IP, 19 K, 4 BB) may offer a buying opportunity. Bauer also saw a bump in velocity this spring which could play up in the bullpen.
I suspect the club is hoping to repeat their success with conversion project Carlos Carrasco. Now a second ace, Carrasco was sent to the bullpen in 2014 because he nibbled too much. When he returned to starting, he carried with him the aggressive tendencies he learned in relief. The rest, as they say, is history. Perhaps Bauer can channel the same success.
Bauer makes for another speculative pick up. You may be able to acquire him from a panicked owner for an older, replacement level starting pitcher. I offered Jake Peavy (it was rejected).
Nicasio beats Vogelsong for starting job
Pirates offseason addition Juan Nicasio has made the starting rotation. He was originally expected to serve as a multi-inning reliever. A fantastic spring – 0.00 ERA, 15 IP, 24 K, 5 BB – was the deciding factor. Vogelsong, the guy he beat, created the opportunity for Nicasio with a lousy start to the year.
In past seasons, Nicasio’s repertoire wasn’t suited to starting. He’s shown a plus fastball, average breaking ball, and below average changeup. It’s possibly he’s added a new weapon this spring, but it hasn’t been reported. Unfortunately, I have no PITCHf/x data to reference.
I foresee the Pirates using Nicasio much the way the Rays used Erasmo Ramirez last season. He’ll probably throw four to six innings per start with a long reliever bridging the distance to the late innings. Again, speculate on the new upside, just don’t ignore the downside when buying.
Rule 5 pick Rickard makes the Orioles
Joey Rickard has made the Orioles roster, and currently figures to be the starting left fielder. The poor play of Korean import Hyun-soo Kim created the opportunity. Rarely do contending teams start a Rule 5 pick. The Rangers did succeed with Delino DeShields last year, so relying on the unproven player isn’t automatic doom for Baltimore.
There are still moving parts involved. Kim has refused a minor league assignment, a right he earned as part of his contract. Now the Orioles have to decide precisely how they’ll handle him.
Rickard, 25 in May, is a patient contact hitter with above average speed and minimal power. With a chance to contribute to average and stolen bases, he’s merely a depth piece to most dynasty owners. Rule 5 picks are often overexposed at the major league level. Chances are strong that Rickard will offer more real world than fantasy value.
