Brad vs. the Book: What Final Four teams will fatten your wallet?
Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Saturday’s Final Four selections below:
Oklahoma vs. Villanova – When people associate “Oklahoma” with “basketball” thoughts of Buddy Buckets are immediately conjured. The decorated senior, who is a near lock for a top-10 overall pick in June’s NBA draft, is the face of the program. His often ridiculous single-game performances, as seen in his combined 73 points scored versus Texas A&M and Oregon, hurled the Sooners into the national semifinals.
Though OU is offensively gifted – it’s swished 44.2 percent from three in the NCAA tournament – its underrated defense is really the reason why it’s knocking at the door of a national title. Ranked top-15 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Sooners have given up only 1.00 points per possession in this year’s Big Dance. And that was achieved against a number of potent-scoring teams.
Villanova, due to its magnificent outside shooting and unrelenting defense, is nearly identical on paper to Oklahoma. It relies heavily on the three-point shot, is only marginal on the glass and lacks frontcourt depth. Really, the ‘Cats only differ in one critical category: turnovers. Overall, they protect the rock substantially better than the Sooners.
These two teams, surrounded by Pearl Harbor vets and fans alike, squared off Dec. 7 in Hawaii. In that contest, a 78-55 throttling by Oklahoma, the ‘Cats were a wretched 4-of-32 from distance, were out-rebounded 41-33 and netted only 0.77 points per possession. If Isaiah Cousins and Ryan Spangler, who combined for 30 points, 16 rebounds and 14 assists in that game, complement Hield similarly, the Boomer Sooner party will roll on.
In what will be a much tighter contest, expect that to occur.
Prediction: Oklahoma (+2) 72 Villanova 68 (UNDER 143)
North Carolina vs. Syracuse – Mea culpa Tar Heels fans. My 1,000-word pre-tourney diatribe arguing why your beloved Baby Blue was “untrustworthy” was horribly, terribly and undeniably wrong. With the exception of a couple rocky halves, UNC has played brilliantly. The eggwash facial I’ve received is well-deserved.
Win some. Lose most.
The Heels, for the most part, have reached their stratospheric potential. Brice Johnson, virtually unstoppable in March, Justin Jackson and, surprisingly, Marcus Paige have brought their best. As a result, the Carolina machine has generated second chance opportunities on 47.2 percent of their possessions, contested shots and drained numerous threes. Most importantly, it’s displayed toughness, a questioned characteristic throughout the regular season. That balance is why it’s emerged victorious by an average margin of 16 points in the NCAA tournament.
Syracuse’s unforeseen run has happened due in large part to its stingy 2-3 zone and overall steely resolve. Dayton, Middle Tennessee, Gonzaga and Virginia all failed to record at least 0.99 points per possession against it. That coupled with Michael Gbinije and Malachi Richardson’s stellar offensive contributions and the Orange’s timely second-half execution, despite deep deficits, explains why they’ve implausibly carved a path, as a No. 10 seed, to the Final Four.
When these two clubs clashed in Chapel Hill Feb. 29, ‘Cuse kept it close thanks to free-throw conversions (19-23) and battling on the glass. Unless Paige and Joel Berry are splashing the bottom of the net from 25 feet, a similar outcome is entirely likely
The +9.5 is an absolute gift. HAMMER!
Prediction: North Carolina 73 Syracuse 69 (+9.5) (UNDER 144.5)
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