Future stars: Predicting breakout players for the 2016 MLB season

Baseball saw a huge influx of young talent last season. Kris Bryant helped lead the Chicago Cubs to the playoffs, Miguel Sano kept the surprising Minnesota Twins in the postseason race and Maikel Franco gave casual fans a reason to watch the Philadelphia Phillies.

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That just scratches the surface. Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor emerged as possible future MVP candidates, Noah Syndergaard showed off his blazing fastball and Matt Duffy shocked everyone after never appearing on a prospect list.

Prior to the start of the season, those players were merely young and promising. After breaking out, they are viewed as legitimate MLB superstars.

Which players will take that leap and join that group this season? We’re glad you asked. Below are 10 players who have a strong chance to breakout in 2016. By next season, we’ll be talking about some of these guys the way we refer to Bryant, Syndergaard and Correa now.

But first, a quick aside: Making a list of breakout players isn’t a new concept, but the method used to compile this list borrows greatly from Keith Law’s annual breakout players article. We’re looking for young, promising players with the opportunity for playing time. With that settled, let’s get to it!

BLAKE SWIHART, CATCHER, BOSTON RED SOX
A quick glance at Swihart’s .274/.319/.392 slash line from his rookie season isn’t all that encouraging, but consider a few things before you judge. Swihart is still just 23 years old, he came into last season as a highly-rated prospect and there’s plenty of evidence he was rushed to the majors. Writing him off after one questionable offensive year is foolish, especially considering that catchers develop at strange rates and that he improved greatly over the second half of the season. During that period, Swihart hit .303/.353/.452. It’s a small sample, and propped up by a .391 BABIP, but there’s also some evidence that it wasn’t completely luck. Swihart’s peripherals slightly improved, his line drive rate increased and he started using the whole field more. Luck may have been involved, but he also showed growth. If any of those gains carry over, he could emerge as a tremendous offensive force for Boston.

BYRON BUXTON, OUTFIELDER, MINNESOTA TWINS
Perhaps it’s not bold to select a guy many consider to be among the best prospects in the game. That’s fair, but it’s also important to note that Buxton is coming into the year with much less hype than Corey Seager based on how the two performed in short big-league samples. Buxton, admittedly, was a bit of a disaster. He didn’t walk much, and he struck out in an alarming 31.9 percent of his plate appearances. Hey, even the most elite prospects can fail upon seeing major-league pitching for the first time. Mike Trout hit just .220 in his first stint in the majors. Every prospect analyst expects Buxton to be an exceptional defensive outfielder, so he only needs to make small strides at the plate to become a league-average player.

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JOE ROSS, PITCHER, WASHINGTON NATIONALS
When you’re the fifth man in a rotation headed by Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, and you play on a team with Bryce Harper, it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle. Ross turned in a solid debut for the Nationals in 2015, and seems set for more this year. On the mound, he does everything you want out of a pitcher. He struck out eight batters per nine, limited his walks and induced ground balls at a decent clip. He may not develop into a ace caliber guy, but there’s at least a decent shot he’s better than Jordan Zimmermann, the man he’s essentially replacing in the Nationals rotation, this season.

ROUGNED ODOR, SECOND BASEMAN, TEXAS RANGERS
Odor pretty much broke out in the second half of last season, but that’s tough to know without looking at his splits. He was so bad initially, that his overall slash line was just .261/.316/.465. Once Odor returned from the minors, he dominated. The 22-year-old hit .292/.334/.527, with 15 home runs, over 367 plate appearances. Given his surge last year, it’s possible Odor emerges as an All-Star this season. There’s even an outside shot he leads all second baseman in home runs. Did we mention he’s just 22?

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ADDISON RUSSELL, SHORTSTOP, CHICAGO CUBS
With the emergence of Correa and Lindor, Russell became mostly an afterthought last year. That said, he’s still just 22, and ranked above both players on Baseball America’s Top 100 list going into 2015. The bat may not be as advanced, and his 28.5 percent strikeout rate was alarming, but his pedigree makes it easy to expect improvement. While Russell’s .389 slugging percentage wasn’t great, he did manage 13 home runs last year. If he shows modest strides during his sophomore season, a .260 average with 20 home runs isn’t out of the question. Combine that with his strong defense, and you have the makings of an exceptional young shortstop.

VINCE VELASQUEZ, PITCHER, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Velasquez is going to be a starter this season, and that’s pretty intriguing. He flashed some strong skills last season as a member of the Astros, but there were questions over whether he had enough command to make it in the rotation. As a starter, Velasquez struck out a batter per inning and posted an acceptable walk rate. If he can make strides in the latter area, there’s a lot to like here. If not, it’s possible he becomes a lights out reliever. Since the Phillies are rebuilding, they can take a good, long look at Velasquez as a starter before they determine his future role.

J.T. REALMUTO, CATCHER, MIAMI MARLINS
Realmuto checks some of the same boxes as Swihart. He’s a former prospect, a catcher and he was rushed to the majors. Realmuto, however, was never as hyped as Swihart and didn’t finish with a blazing second half. Still, his .273/.308/.439 slash line during the second half wasn’t awful considering he was a rookie. The most positive aspect of Realmuto’s numbers is that he didn’t strike out a ton in his first season. His 15.0 percent strikeout rate gives some hope that he can develop into a contact-oriented catcher who can post solid batting averages that mask weak walk numbers. Sprinkle in a little bit of pop and surprising speed, and Realmuto could become a well-rounded offensive catcher.

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TREVOR STORY, SHORTSTOP, COLORADO ROCKIES
Story hasn’t appeared on a prospect list since the 2013 season, but he’s produced modest numbers in the minors since. He’s still just 23, and with Jose Reyes facing a huge suspension, Story is staring at the Rockies starting gig. The numbers were solid last season. Over two levels, Story hit .279/.350/.514 with 20 home runs. In the majors, his strikeouts could be an issue. Story struck out in 24.7 percent of his Triple-A plate appearances, and that figure doesn’t tend to get better when a player is exposed to the majors. Some of that could be offset by playing half his games in Colorado, though. That seems to cure most hitting ailments. There’s some risk here, but the power and the ballpark could play nicely together.

AARON SANCHEZ, PITCHER, TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Another former prospect has worked his way back into the starting rotation. Color us intrigued. As he showed last season, Sanchez has the stuff to get major-league hitters out, but he needs to show more control as a starter. He vowed to do so in the offseason, and reportedly put on 20 pounds in order to ease his delivery. The spring numbers were exceptional. Sanchez posted a 1.35 ERA over 20 innings. He struck out 19 and walked just three. Getting worked up over spring numbers is foolish, but his March dominance is a reminder that Sanchez has a strong pedigree and was once a decent prospect. The Blue Jays are willing to bet on those things, and could be rewarded with a high upside starter.

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MICHAEL TAYLOR, OUTFIELDER, WASHINGTON NATIONALS
The acquisition of Ben Revere seemed to ensure Taylor wouldn’t see a lot of playing time this season, but that may no longer be the case. New manager Dusty Baker has raved about Taylor, and the 25-year-old has put up some strong spring numbers. In limited time last season, Taylor showed off decent power and speed. He hit 14 home runs and stole 16 bases. If given a full season, it’s possible he can get to 20-20. The batting average will likely always be pretty low, but you can live with that as long as Taylor can contribute in other areas. Even with the strong spring, Taylor might be looking at a part-time role to open the season. With that said, when was the last time Jayson Werth stayed completely healthy?