BDL’s Most Interesting Power Rankings: The race for 73 heats up
Let’s face it — the best and most powerful teams in the NBA don’t really change from week to week. A handful of results in the middle of winter can only mean so much to a franchise’s championship hopes. What does shift regularly, though, is how much interest a squad can hold over the course of a season. Every week, BDL’s Most Interesting Power Rankings track the teams most worthy of your attention.
THE TOP 15
1. Golden State Warriors (66-7, last week: 15): The biggest story of the season is only more important now that it’s becoming closer to reality. The Warriors need to go 7-2 in their final nine games to break the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ single-season wins record. That rate sits more than 12 percent below the winning percentage Golden State has already notched this season. Six of the games come at Oracle Arena, where they are 35-0, and the two most difficult games on paper involve a San Antonio Spurs team that could rest its key players in the last week of the season.
In other words, it’s probably safe to bet on a new record. That’s in part because the Warriors have managed to make the fantastic look workmanlike — they dispatched the lowly Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday behind 40 points from Klay Thompson and a triple-double for Draymond Green, and didn’t appear to exert themselves much at all. Sure, make your Sixers jokes, but most teams just don’t do such things.
It could help that the single-season record is now their main aim after the Spurs essentially conceded Saturday’s tilt at the Oklahoma City Thunder by resting all their big names. Golden State now holds a five-game lead for the top seed, and they’re sure as hell not finishing the season on a 4-5 run.
2. Toronto Raptors (49-23, LW: 26): Toronto’s next win will set a new franchise record for a single season, which is very impressive even if it seems a little surprising relative to memories of similar successes. It would be a meaningful accomplishment for a squad that legitimately looks like the best in franchise history, and anything less than a trip to the conference finals would be a disappointment no matter how they finish up these last few weeks.
The East’s top seed is still in play, although a 2 1/2-game gap with 10 to play will be difficult to overcome no matter how much the Cleveland Cavaliers value rest over homecourt advantage. However, the remaining schedule will likely be easier than it looks on paper, because upcoming matchups against the Spurs and other comfortable playoff participants could involve heavy rest for opposing stars. Plus, the closing trio of the New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, and Sixers is a very kind way to close it out.
At any rate, the Raptors should make history at some point this week with their 50th win. Whether they have much to play for beyond that point depends largely on how seriously the Cavs view the regular season.
3. Chicago Bulls (36-36, LW: 6): Do not take this ranking as a recommendation to watch the Bulls, a reeling team with no identity that believes in the strength of pre-practice meetings to remain a viable playoff team. It’s a good idea to predict that Chicago will find itself out of the postseason for the first time since 2008, which probably isn’t the worst outcome given that this group seems to be an especially poor fit for first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg. However, if we’re being honest, the front office will probably start selling off parts this summer regardless of where they finish.
The schedule is not amenable to making up the current two-game gap, either — this week’s four games all come against teams in tight fights for playoff spots or seeding. It wouldn’t be terribly shocking to see the Bulls finish the week all but mathematically eliminated from contention.
4. Dallas Mavericks (35-38, LW: not ranked): Injuries to Deron Williams and Chandler Parsons have put an old team already dealing with the stresses of a long season in an increasingly precarious position. Losses in three straight and 10 of their last 12 now have the Mavericks a half-game back of the Houston Rockets for the West’s last playoff spot, and Sunday’s 22-point loss at the Sacramento Kings did not inspire any confidence that they can turn things around.
The schedule falls somewhere in the middle of “easy” and “difficult,” starting with Monday night’s visit to the Denver Nuggets as a test of their resolve and energy. The stakes are clear. Here’s Wesley Matthews, via Tim McMahon of ESPN.com:
“We’ve got to decide if we want to go home after the last game [of the regular season] or not. Everybody’s got to look in the mirror and decide what the hell they want to do. Do we want to play for something or do we not? Do we want to waste six, seven months of our lives just being NBA players and another season and blah, blah, blah or do we want to do something that’s meaningful? Do we want to take a run? Anything can happen in the postseason. Do we want to lay everything out on the line every single night nine more times and let the chips fall or do we want to go to Travelocity?”
For what it’s worth, most of these guys can probably afford to pay full price for vacations. But his point is a good one.
5. Utah Jazz (36-37, LW: NR): Unlike the Mavericks and Rockets, the Jazz’s attempt to claim one of the West’s last two playoff spots will arguably mean more to their future than to the present. It’s already been a good season for a young team that suffered several key backcourt injuries, so missing out entirely would be disappointing but not catastrophic for this group. Making it in, especially as a No. 7 seed, would represent serious progress as Quin Snyder tries to turn Utah in a playoff mainstay.
The Jazz should go 3-1 over the next week — a tough meeting with the Warriors is more than balanced out by three against the worst teams in the West. As of now, the odds are in their favor.
6. Washington Wizards (36-37, LW: 8): A comfortable win Sunday night at the Los Angeles Lakers puts the Wizards 2 1/2 behind the Detroit Pistons for the East’s last playoff spot, a meaningful gap that looks worse with the Bulls a half-game closer. The difference is that the Wizards aren’t in a full-on crisis and can hope to win this week at the Kings and Phoenix Suns (and probably lose at the Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers). It’s very possible that Washington will be the top challenger to the Indiana Pacers and Pistons by this time next week. Randy Wittmann should start considering his options no matter what, but he and his team can at least try to salvage something from a disappointing campaign.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers (52-21, LW: 14): The good news for the Cavs is that LeBron James has elevated his game since the playoff-mode social media brouhaha with three straight elite performances. James has not been his normal generational-talent self for much of this season, so a return to the form that made him such a dominant figure last spring would be a welcome sign for a team in need of consistency.
The bad news is that one of those great LeBron games came in an outright baffling loss to the Nets, the latest in a season-long string of curious defeats that break up any momentum that could get this team into top form. The math is in their favor to finish with the top seed, but it’s hard to say that the Cavs will have earned much faith by the time the playoffs start. They seem to trip up every few games as a matter of course.
Their best hope may not be a season-closing winning streak, but merely the beginning of the playoffs, when the structure of play will at least allow for greater focus. It’s tempting to believe that Cleveland will blow through the East playoffs for the second consecutive season, but it closed the 2014-15 regular season in much better form. Still, the same dynamics that saw the Cavs improve dramatically in the 2015 postseason could play out again this year.
8. San Antonio Spurs (61-12, LW: NR): Any team attempting to go undefeated at home for the first time in NBA history deserves notice. This week brings two opportunities to test that goal (Wednesday vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, Saturday vs. Toronto), so the Spurs should be worth your time.
On the other hand, do we know if they even care to set that mark? Saturday’s mass rest against OKC essentially handed the West’s top seed to Golden State, a likely outcome that was arguably worth the effort to avoid given San Antonio’s form at the AT&T Center. Apart from the game’s immediate meaning, Gregg Popovich’s tactics brought up the old feeling that he fosters a negative sense of showmanship among his players.
That’s the franchise’s prerogative, of course, and the approach has certainly served it well over the last 20 years. It just means that the Spurs won’t be as watchable as they could be in these last few weeks. I hope they enjoy the shame of their middling spot in these arbitrary rankings.
9. Detroit Pistons (39-35, LW: NR): A two-game lead on the Bulls puts the Pistons in good shape to earn a playoff berth, but this week could change the math considerably. None of the three games is easy — Oklahoma City (Tuesday) could be coming in on an eight-game winning streak, Dallas (Friday) will need a win to keep pace or stay in the West’s playoff picture, and Chicago (Saturday) could be playing to stave off elimination. Detroit had taken six straight before Saturday’s 17-point loss to the Atlanta Hawks and should feel good about its ability to stay in (especially given the competition), but teams that hover around .500 for a full season don’t always win the ones they should.
10. Indiana Pacers (39-34, LW: NR): The Pacers find themselves in a similar position to the Pistons and one spot lower because of their marginally superior record and more accommodating future schedule. Yet Sunday’s narrow win over Houston displayed another potential advantage for Indiana — that the majority of its rotation has been through postseason battles before and knows what to expect in these situations. While the Rockets are definitely not the best opponent for testing anyone’s playoff mettle, the Pacers rebounded from a rough third quarter and executed better in crunch time. That’s worth something.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (51-22, LW: 28): End-of-season dominance may not stand for a ton with round-by-round matchups meaning so much more in the postseason, but the Thunder are finishing up this campaign in fine form despite having nothing tangible to play for. The West’s likely No. 3 seed has won seven in a row, six of which have come against teams that would currently qualify for the playoffs. A win Monday at the Raptors would make it eight and prove that they’re capable of beating another second-tier contender on the road. It’s not beating the Warriors or full-strength Spurs, but they’ll take it.
The formula hasn’t been anything fancy — just plenty of scoring and ball-dominant excellence from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, nice offensive contributions from the rest of the rotation, and enough defense to win some high-scoring affairs. OKC hasn’t put up fewer than 111 points in any of these wins and looks content to out-pace opponents who can’t match their star power. Whether it’s enough to challenge the West’s elite is an open question, but it’s the best the Thunder are going to do right now.
12. Los Angeles Clippers (45-27, LW: 13): Like the Thunder, the Clippers are all but locked into their seeding and have no real use for the rest of regular season other than playing well and getting prepared for their first-round opponent. Their process is going to be a lot more complicated, of course, because the just-reactivated Blake Griffin hasn’t played since Christmas and needs the ball a lot in an offense that is now used to organizing itself away from his strengths. Unfortunately for the sake of these rankings, Griffin will serve his suspension until Sunday’s game against the Wizards and therefore won’t even be on the bench to face the reality of playing with Jeff Green.
I don’t know if a team can prepare for a player’s return in real games in any meaningful way before he’s actually on the court, but the Clippers may try to do it this week. Or maybe Chris Paul will dominate the ball and we won’t see observable shifts until Griffin’s first alley-oop.
13. Charlotte Hornets (42-31, LW: 29): Charlotte’s stunning come-from-behind win over San Antonio last Monday was the clear highlight of their work, but it’s equally remarkable that this team sits just 1 1/2 games behind the Hawks for the No. 3 seed when few expected much of anything from them this preseason. Six of their last nine games come on the road, which isn’t terrific, but a strong finish could gain Steve Clifford a few Coach of the Year votes. He already deserves them.
14. Memphis Grizzlies (41-32, LW: 12): It remains mind-boggling that a team led offensively by Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson, and Tony Allen has managed to win any games at all. The Grizzlies need just a few more wins to hold onto the No. 5 seed, but they’re way more watchable as an oddity now.
15. Houston Rockets (36-38, LW: 7): I’m primarily interested in the end of the Rockets’ season to see when we can start throwing parties celebrating their demise. Sunday’s loss to the Pacers was as close to a must-win as late March games get, yet they were slow to get back in transition on many occasions and evinced their usual lack of urgency. There is no reason to expect much different in these last weeks or in a playoff series against a contender. Please let them go away soon.
THE BOTTOM FIVE
26. Denver Nuggets (31-43, LW: NR): It pains me to speak ill of a team whose highest-potential player did this last week. With all apologies to Emmanuel Mudiay and the rest of the squad, the Nuggets just don’t have a role other than spoiler with eight games to go. They’ll finish in the middle of the lottery, have some nice moments, and otherwise matter only in relation to what they do to playoff teams. That’s totally fine, but it’s not especially important with so many meaningful games left.
27. Orlando Magic (30-43, LW: 10): Ditto, plus they’ve already been eliminated.
28. Phoenix Suns (20-53, LW: 4): Devin Booker is a very promising young player. Here’s hoping Eric Bledsoe comes back healthy, Brandon Knight avoids falling into a ditch this offseason (I mean this literally), and the Suns add a terrific draft pick. There’s the potential for a very fun team here — it just hasn’t manifested on the court for several months.
29. New Orleans Pelicans (26-46, LW: 11): Everyone’s hurt, they’re one loss from elimination, and the team seems content to lose as many games as possible in pursuit of better lottery odds. Read the box scores if they affect your fantasy playoffs. Good luck.
30. Philadelphia 76ers (9-65, LW: 30): Sixers fans have more reason to watch Buddy Hield in the Final Four next Saturday than they do anyone wearing the uniform right now.
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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
