Analysis: Free bases and outs are costly – Boston Herald
Think the Red Sox front office is weaning itself off analytics?
If so, it looks as if the on-field staff has not been informed.
Led by numbers-friendly coaches and an open-minded manager, the Red Sox have been among the more progressive major league teams in two facets of the game: intentional walks and sacrifice bunts. Both the bunt and intentional pass were once viewed as beneficial, but more recent studies reveal that they can often negatively impact a club’s chance at winning. Each statistic reached its lowest recorded level in 2015. The Red Sox were near the bottom of the majors in each.
On average last season, there was only one sacrifice bunt every four games and one intentional walk every five games.
“I don’t know that anybody wants to give away an out,” manager John Farrell said.
And that’s what the rest of the league might be thinking, too.
“I really do think it took a pretty big mind-sight shift,” said Vince Gennaro, the president of the Society for American Baseball Research. “Think about it optically, what it feels like when you’ve got a runner on first with one out and you bunt him over. Now, optically, to the baseball veteran person who has grown up in the game, they look at it and say, ‘All we need is a single to score.’ So it just feels like it’s the percentage play. But if you don’t bunt him (over), you have two shots at a double.
“I think we finally got to a point where we rationally value what an out means.”
In theory, the sacrifice bunt is a useful tool. But the numbers say otherwise.
According to the FanGraphs run expectancy chart, a team that puts a runner on first base with nobody out will score an average of 0.83 runs in that inning. But if the runner is sacrificed to second base at the cost of an out, the team’s run expectancy that inning drops to 0.64 runs.
That team might now have a better chance at scoring one run, but it has simultaneously and intentionally hurt its chances at scoring the most possible runs.
This essentially means a manager must pick and choose his sacrifice bunting opportunities very carefully. The Red Sox have done just that, executing only 20 sacrifice bunts in 2014 and 30 in 2015.
“I think there’s a place and a time for it,” said Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo. “Never would we ask Mookie Betts or Travis Shaw or Hanley Ramirez or David Ortiz to lay down a bunt. They’re run producers. And we never stop players from making a baseball play. I would say over half the bunt attempts we make are players doing it on their own.
“We talk about educating them, feeling the moment, understanding where they are with the matchup, how they feel on that day. If they want to try it on their own, execute and advance the runner, we encourage it. But we are way more in favor of the two-run, three-run home run in those situations to blow up the game.”
So when is it a good time to drop down a bunt?
“On a Sunday afternoon, if it’s David Price against Jacob deGrom,” Lovullo said. “We’re tired. And we understand the race to the finish line might be the first one to three runs. . . .
“(But) it has to be the right situation in the right matchup with the right pitcher and the right hitter.”
Gennaro believes that sacrifice bunts have hit their nadir, and become so infrequent that the numbers are likely to plateau.
He doesn’t believe the same is true for intentional walks; that teams will continue to be less and less likely to use that strategy.
“More and more people are buying into the notion that getting on base is one of the primary objectives of any plate appearance, so to grant that for free with an intentional walk, the perception is that it’s a pretty costly thing to do,” Gennaro said. “So I think we’re seeing less of it. We realize it plays right into the offense’s hands. That, coupled with strikeout rates at an all-time high. And now that we’re in the post-steroid era, the power numbers aren’t quite as extreme as they were. So when you start to look at that tradeoff that there are a lot more K’s and there’s not as much damage done with the longball, the balance tips toward, ‘Well, we will pitch to this person,’ or, ‘We’ll pitch around him but we don’t have to overtly intentionally walk him.’ ”
With the amount of information available to help teams exploit hitters’ weaknesses, there is even less incentive to give a batter a free pass. The Red Sox issued 28 intentional walks last season. Three teams (the Cubs, Cardinals, Rockies) tied for the major league lead with 47 intentional walks while the Blue Jays were last with only 12.
“Every time you walk somebody, the numbers have shown over the years that that guy too often comes around and ends up scoring,” Lovullo said. “Very seldom does it work out the way you want to, when you put a runner on and the next ball is a double play. By the book, by the law, it sounds great. But the philosophy and execution of it doesn’t happen that way.
“Players are training themselves to get on base and find a way to advance 90 feet. Hitters are smart and they understand philosophies and game-planning. It just seems like the risk isn’t worth the reward because we want to eliminate guys from getting on base.
“I know John isn’t a big fan of it. I think if you look over the number of intentional walks over the last several years, the Boston Red Sox rarely ever do it. And we adhere to that.”
At least at field level, the Red Sox are still very much relying on the numbers.
Top 10 agents of change
The first official game of the 2016 season is one week from today. Here’s a look at our picks for the 10 most intriguing players wearing new uniforms this season:
• 10. Shelby Miller, SP, Diamondbacks
Who trades the first overall pick less than six months after the draft? The Diamondbacks, that’s who. Miller, who has a career 3.22 ERA after two seasons with the Cardinals and one season with the Braves, was shipped from Atlanta to Arizona in exchange for a package of prospects highlighted by Dansby Swanson, the Vanderbilt shortstop who was drafted with the No. 1 overall pick in June.
• 9. Todd Frazier, 3B, White Sox
Frazier hit 35 homers with the Reds last season and is a career .257 hitter with a .784 OPS. With offense down across baseball, Frazier’s value might have gone up as the White Sox acquired him from Cincinnati in attempt to take advantage of a questionable American League Central.
• 8. John Lackey, SP, Cubs
There was a time Lackey didn’t know if he’d pitch again. But his recovery from Tommy John surgery with the Red Sox enabled him to build shoulder strength that he never knew he had. With additional life on his fastball, the 36-year-old posted a 2.77 ERA in St. Louis last year. The Cubs got him for two years, $32 million.
• 7. Daniel Murphy, 2B, Nationals
The Mets were thrilled to see Murphy hit seven homers during an amazing run to the World Series, but no play summed up Murphy’s career in New York better than the one in Game 4 against the Royals, when the second baseman let a crucial grounder scoot under his glove. The Mets were ready to move on, so the Nationals took a three-year, $37.5 million bet that Murphy’s strong bat will make up for his questionable defense and baserunning.
• 6. Starlin Castro, 2B, Yankees
Castro hit .307 as a 21-year-old for the Cubs in 2011 and Chicago locked up the budding star on a long-term contract that could run through 2020. But over the last four years he’s hit .270 with a .706 OPS. The Cubs wanted to go in a new direction, and the Yankees jumped at the opportunity, sending Adam Warren to the Cubs to acquire Castro. The former shortstop will play second base in New York.
• 5. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Red Sox
The Red Sox have had one of the best closers in baseball since early in 2013, when Koji Uehara surprisingly emerged as a ninth-inning standout. But they needed a deeper bullpen and finally decided to divest some of the talent in their farm system, giving up four prospects, including shortstop Javier Guerra and outfielder Manuel Margot, to get Kimbrel from the Padres. Kimbrel’s 1.63 ERA is the best in major league history (minimum 300 innings).
• 4. Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs
At 26 years old, Heyward was a young free agent, a fact that surely helped convince the Cubs he was worth eight years, $186 million (reportedly with two opt-out clauses after 2018 and ’19). But he’s not your typical corner outfield masher. Heyward, a Gold Glove right fielder, has averaged just 13 home runs with a .274 average and .768 OPS over the last three seasons.
• 3. Justin Upton, OF, Tigers
Not many star players suit up for their fourth team before their 29th birthday. Upton is a steady corner outfielder who can hit the long ball (average of 25 home runs per year since ’09), steal 15-20 bases and provide above-average defense. But he was still available late in the offseason, prompting the Tigers to finally give in with a six-year, $132.75 million deal.
• 2. Zack Greinke, SP, Diamondbacks
The Dodgers would’ve been favorites to win the National League West if they had simply re-signed the guy who led the league with an astounding 1.66 ERA last year. Instead, the Diamondbacks swooped in and signed Greinke for six years and $206.5 million. The question remains: Does Arizona have enough to contend for a division crown?
• 1. David Price, SP, Red Sox
One week from tomorrow, Price will take the mound representing Red Sox Nation — a group that has spent parts of the last seven years booing him. How will Price handle his new responsibility as the ace of a big market team? And how will he handle the pressure of signing the biggest contract (seven-years, $217 million) ever handed out to a pitcher?
Honorable mentions: RP Aroldis Chapman, Yankees; SP Johnny Cueto, Giants; RP Ken Giles, Astros; 2B Ben Zobrist, Cubs; 2B Neil Walker, Mets; SP Jeff Samardzija, Giants; SS Andrelton Simmons, Angels.
