MLB season preview: Are the Astros ready to take the next step?

Editor’s Note: With the arrival of baseball season we’re previewing each MLB team, from worst to best. We’ll look at their key offseason moves, projected lineup, best and worst possible outcomes plus examine the team’s fantasy implications with the help of friends from Roto Arcade. Our daily series continues with No. 6: the Houston Astros.

At this point, the story isn’t that the Houston Astros are good again. We saw their rebuilding bear fruit last season when they surprised everyone and made it to the ALDS. At this point, the story is just how good the Astros can be another year into their rejuvenation.

(AP) So here we are, fawning over a full season of Carlos Correa, marveling at the motor of Jose Altuve, imagining how good a healthy George Springer can be and waiting to how Dallas Keuchel follows up his Cy Young season.

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The Astros are energetic, exciting and boiling over with potential — but there are still concerns. Last year, after leading the AL West most of the season, they faltered down the stretch and settled into a wild-card spot. The Texas Rangers, last year’s division champs, figure to be good again too. The Astros’ pitching will have to stand tall, Correa will have to deliver the season pundits are expecting, Springer needs to take that step forward and the bottom half of their lineup needs to establish itself.

If all that happens, there’s a really good chance we see the Astros in October again. (Mike Oz)

Key additions: Ken Giles, Doug Fister

Key subtractions: Scott Kazmir, Chris Carter, Chad Qualls

Giles is an exceptional reliever, and gives the Astros a top option at the back-end of their bullpen. He cost four players, but he’s young and under team control for a while. Other than that, the additions were modest. Fister is coming off a poor season and has seen his peripherals decline into scary territories. If healthy, it’s possible he’ll experience a rebound. The loss of Kazmir hurts, but he had trouble remaining effective down the stretch for the second straight season. It would have been interesting to see how the team’s offseason changed if Colby Rasmus hadn’t shocked the baseball world by becoming the first player to accept a qualifying offer. (Chris Cwik)

Lance McCullers: After last season’s stint in the majors, people know about McCullers. The 22-year-old impressed in 125 2/3 innings, posting a 3.22 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning. Much is expected of the sophomore starter this season, but a shoulder injury has put him out of commission for the time being.

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Shoulder injuries are always concerning with pitchers, so it’s reasonable to wonder whether this will impact him moving forward. If he’s healthy, he could emerge as the club’s second-best starter. If not, the Astros rotation becomes a lot more questionable. (Cwik)

Lineup:
1. Jose Altuve, 2B (.313/.353/.459, 86 R, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 38 SB)
2. George Springer. OF (.276/.367/.459, 59 R, 16 HR, 41 RBI, 16 SB)
3. Carlos Correa, SS (.279/.345/.512, 52 R, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 14 SB)
4. Colby Rasmus, OF (.238/.314/.475, 67 R, 25 HR, 61 RBI)
5. Carlos Gomez, OF (.255/.314/.409, 61 R, 12 HR, 56 RBI, 17 SB)
6. Evan Gattis, DH (.246/.285/.463, 66 R, 27 HR, 88 RBI)
7. Luis Valbuena, 3B (.224/.310/.438, 62 R, 25 HR, 56 RBI)
8. Tyler White, 1B (Making major league debut)
9. Jason Castro, C (.211/.283/.365, 38 R, 11 HR, 31 RBI)

Rotation:
1. Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48 ERA, 232 IP, 216 K)
2. Collin McHugh (19-7, 3.89 ERA, 203.2 IP, 171 K)
3. Lance McCullers (6-7, 3.22 ERA, 125.2 IP, 129 K)
4. Mike Fiers (7-10, 3.69 ERA, 180.1 IP, 180 K)
5. Doug Fister (5-7, 4.19 ERA, 103 IP, 63 K)

— compiled by Kyle Ringo

The awesome core of Carlos Correa, George Springer and Dallas Keuchel put this team on their backs and take it to next level. This is a very talented group that goes beyond its excellent group of young, emerging superstars though. They have some rock solid veterans and a reloaded bullpen to lend support, which could ultimately get them to 90-plus wins. (Mark Townsend)

The next phase in Houston’s return to contention is how they handle expectations. Many will be expecting a return to the postseason, which adds a lot of pressure. Regression in key areas is possible as well. If that occurs, they could slip behind some of the more improved AL teams and finish closer to 80 wins than the 86 they finished with last season. (Townsend)

Is Carlos Correa really worth a first-round pick in fantasy drafts? Last season’s AL Rookie of the Year is going No. 10 overall in average Yahoo live drafts, but there’s no shortage of professed fantasy pundits that will tell you the price is too high for a 21-year-old with less than 100 regular-season MLB games under his belt. But the inexperience angle is really the only argument for those naysayers. Any which way you want to slice up Correa’s rookie season, it comes out smelling like a rose. He hit at least five home runs in each of the four months he played last season, and delivered no worse than an .827 OPS in any of those months. He posted an .836 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers and an .899 OPS vs. southpaws. And his (very acceptable) K (18.1%) and BB rates (9.3%) were also in line with his minor-league numbers. All of this is to say that there is no evidence of luck aiding Correa in his first MLB go-round. He’s one of the highest pedigreed youngsters in the league, a physical specimen with five-tool skills playing a premium fantasy position (SS). His place in the first round of fantasy drafts is well deserved.

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Do the Astros have another impact prospect in the ’16 pipeline? While relative youngsters Matt Duffy, Jon Singleton and/or Tyler White are expected to hold down first-base duties to open the season, the name that fantasy owners should care about is A.J. Reed. The lefty slugger went from being the NCAA Player of the Year at Kentucky in ’14 to topping the minors in runs (113), homers (34), RBIs (127) and OPS (1.044) in his first pro season (split between Single- and Double-A).

Despite a solid spring, Reed is expected to bide his time in Triple-A to open the year. Assuming he continues to show prodigious power, excellent patience, and an ability to drive the ball to all fields, he’ll likely arrive in Houston sometime after the Super 2 deadline passes in mid-June. Considering that usable power is often a tough commodity to come by during the season in fantasy free agency, owners will want to be out in front of any rumblings of a Reed call-up.

Not only is Lance McCullers a rising player to watch on the mound, but he’s one of the top big leaguers to follow on social media. Is that any surprise coming from a guy who wore Batman inspired cleats for his MLB debut? The Astros pitcher is @LMcCullers43 and he’ll fill your Twitter feed with a great mix of funny and insight. So get on that follow before he blows up and becomes one of the biggest things in baseball, both on and off the field. (Israel Fehr)