No driver with 5 top 10s in the first 5 races has won the Chase
Bad news, Kevin Harvick fans, your driver isn’t winning the 2016 title.
Why? Well, Harvick has five top 10s through the first five races of the season. No driver to get a top 10 in each of the first five races has won the title in the Chase era.
Of course, past performance isn’t indicative of future results. We know that and therefore can’t definitively say that Harvick is going miss out on the title in 2016. But it’s further proof that NASCAR’s title system is more about being good at the end of the season than the beginning. Just look at what Jimmie Johnson’s crew chief Chad Knaus had to say after his team won at California on Sunday.
“What we’re going to do, we’re going to focus forward, put our efforts into going into Chicago, New Hampshire, those first few races of the Chase,” Knaus said. “That’s our main focus at this point. We want to perform well, win as many races as we possibly can. This provides an opportunity for us to go out there and be aggressive, do things that might be a bit uncharacteristic …
“To do that kind of stuff to try to make things happen. Right now we’re going to try to solidify what we need rolling into the Chase.”
The Chase is still 21 races away.
Harvick is the only driver batting 1.000 when it comes to top 10s in 2016. Last season, he did it too (with all top fives nonetheless) along with Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. As you know, a driver (Kyle Busch) who didn’t race at all in the first five races won the title.
Before 2015, only four drivers – Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2013, Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle in 2010 and Jimmie Johnson in 2005 – had gone 5-5. So it’s not exactly a common occurrence.
It’s much more common for drivers to get four top 10s in the first five races. But their title odds aren’t much better than zero either. Sorry Carl, Kyle and Kurt. Drivers have gone 4-5 22 times in the Chase era. Only Jimmie Johnson in 2006 has gone on to win the title.
Five races is an admittedly arbitrary stopping point for our breakdown. But we’ve got an off-weekend coming up. We’re going to do it anyway:
2015
5: Kevin Harvick (2nd in the standings), Martin Truex Jr. (4th), Joey Logano (6th)
4: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12th), Brad Keselowski (7th), Ryan Newman (11th)
Champion: Kyle Busch
2014
4: Carl Edwards (9th), Jeff Gordon (6th)
Champion: Kevin Harvick
2013
5: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5th)
4: Brad Keselowski (14th)
Champion: Jimmie Johnson
2012
4: Greg Biffle (5th), Jimmie Johnson (3rd)
Champion: Brad Keselowski
2011
4: Kurt Busch (11th)
Champion: Tony Stewart
2010
5: Matt Kenseth (5th), Greg Biffle (6th)
4: Kevin Harvick (3rd)
Champion: Jimmie Johnson
2009
4: Jeff Gordon (3rd)
Champion: Jimmie Johnson
2008
4: Greg Biffle (3rd), Kevin Harvick (4th), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12th), Kasey Kahne (14th)
Champion: Jimmie Johnson
2007
4: Jeff Gordon (2nd), Jeff Burton (8th)
Champion: Jimmie Johnson
2006
4: Kasey Kahne (8th), Jimmie Johnson (Champion), Mark Martin (9th)
2005
5: Jimmie Johnson (5th)
4: Greg Biffle (2nd)
Champion: Tony Stewart
2004
4: Matt Kenseth (8th)
Champion: Kurt Busch
Only Keselowski in 2013 and Kahne in 2008 have missed the Chase. And with the win-and-in format now in place, there’s a very slim likelihood that Harvick, Edwards or either Busch brother will miss the Chase anyway. But they’ll have to go against history to hoist the final Sprint Cup trophy.
– – – – – – –
Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
