NFL draft positional rankings: Two-man race for top quarterback
Leading up to the NFL draft on April 28-30, Shutdown Corner will examine each position, rank the top players at each spot and identify some sleepers, sliders and lesser-known gems.
Quarterbacks have been chosen first overall in 11 of the past 15 drafts, and yet as it stands now — barring a trade, of course — that won’t happen in 2016. The Tennessee Titans, owners of No. 1, are quite happy with Marcus Mariota, whom they selected second overall last season.
Up next, the Cleveland Browns are very much unhappy with their quarterback play. For, oh, the past 20 years or so. So this really is where things start at the position unless the Titans find a deal to move down and a team is willing to move up, that is, for either Cal’s Jared Goff or North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz.
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Pac-12 quarterbacks have been frequent first-round inhabitants, but FCS? There have been only a handful of sub-Division-I QBs to land in Round 1 in the past four decades: Joe Flacco in 2008, Steve McNair in 1995, Ken O’Brien in 1983 and Phil Simms in 1979. Of those, only McNair (third overall) went in the top five.
That demonstrates both Wentz’s enticing potential and the league’s desperation for young quarterback talent to develop, and that development time as been sped up considerably, too. Most first-round picks don’t get two or three years anymore to marinate before they get a chance.
The Goff-Wentz debate is an interesting one, and behind them is a talented byt flawed group whose potential is far better than the extremely top-heavy group of 2015. After Jameis Winston and Mariota went 1-2, the next QB wasn’t selected until No. 75, and only seven were taken all draft — the fewest taken since 1998.
This will be more in line with typical drafts, with 10-15 quarterbacks selected. But perhaps only three or four ever truly develop into starter-grade players, and there’s no guarantee that any of them truly become great. This draft is a bit reminiscent of the 2008 (Matt Ryan-Flacco) and 2009 (Matthew Stafford-Mark Sanchez-Josh Freeman) crops, if they were mashed together perhaps. Both years featured some good performances from the top picks, a few big busts (Pat White and Brian Brohm as mid-second-rounders, wow) and a few lower picks who became decent backups.
If you’re expecting Day 1 super-stardom, we’re sorry for your impending disappointment. But if you are willing to dig a bit, and most of all be patient, there might be a few gems in this year’s quarterback group.
Shutdown Corner’s Top 10 Quarterbacks for 2016
1. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State — 6-5, 237 — Tall, athletic, tough rhythm thrower worth investing in, but he’d be best-suited to be brought along gradually
2. Jared Goff, Cal — 6-4, 215 — Confident, smart, lean-framed pocket passer who doesn’t possess a cannon but has enough tools to be an NFL starter
3. Paxton Lynch, Memphis — 6-7, 244 — Boom-bust potential in big, athletically gifted short passer who has a lot to learn and process before he can handle big time
4. Dak Prescott, Mississippi State — 6-2, 226 — Tough, savvy, experienced short-to-intermediate passer with leadership, more upside than given credit for
5. Connor Cook, Michigan State — 6-4, 217 — Most experienced big-game QB in draft, with good arm talent, but accuracy, leadership questions abound
6. Cardale Jones, Ohio State — 6-5, 253 — Hard to find proper comp for big, athletic, strong-armed prospect with limited sample size (11 starts)
7. Brandon Allen, Arkansas — 6-1, 217 — Better game player than practice player who has size limitations but really improved from 2014 to 2015
8. Nate Sudfeld, Indiana — 6-6, 234 — Big, push thrower who has stepped up in big games but disappeared in others, but potential there to groom
9. Christian Hackenberg, Penn State — 6-4, 223 — How you draw up a QB, but his tape is often ugly and confounding, a true enigma past two seasons
tie-10. Kevin Hogan, Stanford — 6-3, 218 — Uncommonly smart future coach (or professor?) who possesses bad ball velocity, but toughness and athleticism
tie-10. Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State — 6-4, 231 — Fluid, well-build competitor who avoids turnovers, but no apparent special or rare traits
Positional grade: B-minus
Expect three or four of these quarterbacks to develop into starters, but will any of them be great? That’s hard to project. A far deeper group than last season, but there might not be a Winston or Mariota in this class.
Sleeper
Vernon Adams, Oregon
We hope someone takes a chance on this athletic, highly competitive and creative thrower and playmaker who has obvious size limitations at 5-11, 200 pounds and with small hands (9.25 inches). Is it too obvious to suggest that an NFC West team, such as Chip Kelly’s San Francisco 49ers or the Russell Wilson-led Seattle Seahawks, might take a flier on Adams?
Small-school wonder
Josh Woodrum, Liberty
Four-year starter who played for Turner Gill and turned in some big performances. Likely not draftable, however, Woodrum has enough traits (arm talent, athleticism) to stash and develop on a practice squad. A long-term investment at best.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm
