Free Agency Update: Free Agency Recap: Second Wave
The first wave of free agency contained plenty of interesting storylines which will shape both the NFL and fantasy drafts alike, but it was not the final chapter of the offseason. Important moves have been made over the last week and a half, and even more relevant additions will be made as we reach the draft and beyond.
The biggest news of the second wave of free agency had nothing to do with free agency at all. Martavis Bryant was suspended for a minimum of one year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, leaving the Steelers without one of their top weapons for at least this season. I wrote in depth about the fallout from his suspension, but the TL;DR version is Markus Wheaton is still not good, Sammie Coates could be big, Ladarius Green should see a lot of targets, and Ben Roethlisberger is no longer a top-five quarterback if he even was to begin with.
The next biggest piece of fantasy news involved C.J. Anderson, who signed a four-year, $18 million offer sheet with the Dolphins which the Broncos ultimately matched. Placing the low tender on Anderson instead of paying another $800,000 for the second-round tender is among John Elway’s worst decisions as general manager, but in the end the Broncos kept their guy. Or did they? While Anderson is getting paid too much to be forgotten moving forward, it is reasonable to question if he is actually the guy the Broncos want controlling the run game.
Anderson owns a 4.8 yards-per-attempt average over 338 career carries, but he has consistently played behind inferior players while in Denver. Before his breakout late in 2014, he was forced to sit behind the terrible Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman. After getting off to an admittedly bad start in 2015 while dealing with an injury, Anderson never really jumped Hillman on the depth chart despite averaging 5.56 yards per carry from Week 8 through the Super Bowl. Hillman averaged 3.43 yards per attempt over that same period, and yet he was given 34 more carries. Then, despite his success, the Broncos low ball Anderson on his restricted free agent tender. Taken together, these actions paint a picture of an organization which does not feel strongly about Anderson as a player.
That said, they did eventually match the contract, and with Hillman a free agent and unlikely to return, Anderson is currently the king of the depth chart. It is still reasonable to be wary of how much work he will actually get, but Anderson has proven he can be a reliable fantasy asset when given the carries. It may take until training camp to feel completely comfortable with his role in the offense, but right now Anderson has to be viewed as a back-end RB1.
The situation in the Miami backfield is even less clear. After losing Lamar Miller to the Texans and striking out with Anderson, the Dolphins made a serious attempt to bring in Chris Johnson, who eventually re-signed with the Cardinals. All of this action suggests the team is not comfortable with 2015 fifth-rounder Jay Ajayi entering training camp as the de facto starter, and coach Adam Gase said at the NFL Owners Meetings he is looking for a “stable of backs.” Miami could add a veteran at some point in free agency, and it would not be surprising if they took another running back early in the draft. Ajayi flashed some of his talents last season, but it looks like he will have to put on quite a show to be given a workhorse role.
In other running back news, Alfred Morris signed a two-year, $3.5 million contract with the Dallas Cowboys. A workhorse his first two years in Washington, Morris struggled in Jay Gruden’s power-oriented scheme, posting a career-low 3.7 yards per carry last season. The clear downward trajectory of Morris’ production has prompted some speculation he is nearing the end, but a new scheme and an elite offensive line should help turn his career around. Morris is one of the worst passing-down backs in the league, but he will provide an alternative to Darren McFadden and whichever rookie Dallas leaves the draft with on early downs. Only 27, Morris is a great reclamation project for the Cowboys and a solid post-hype sleeper for fantasy purposes.
The most active team on the trading block over the last week was the Patriots, who sent Chandler Jones to Arizona in exchange for Jonathan Cooper and a second-round pick and acquired Martellus Bennett from the Bears for a swap of fourth- and sixth-round picks. The Jones move fills an important need for the Cardinals and alleviates the free agent logjam New England faces next offseason, but the fantasy fallout from the Bennett trade is considerably larger.
A steady if unspectacular TE1 who averaged seven targets a game while in Chicago, Bennett is now entering the season with an uncertain workload. It is possible he is able to recreate the success Aaron Hernandez found when he averaged over eight targets a game in 2011 and 12, but it has been a long time since any tight end not named Rob Gronkowski had that kind of success in New England. Tim Wright was going to be the answer in 2014, and he managed just 259 yards, although he did find the end zone six times. Scott Chandler was going to be the guy last season, but he posted a disappointing 23-259-4 line despite starting a few games.
Bennett is certainly better than both Wright and Chandler, but it is not out of the question he flops like the rest. He has never been an efficient fantasy player, averaging 1.27 fantasy points per target over his career, and he is unlikely to steal significant red-zone looks from Gronkowski, who is easily the most effective red-zone weapon in the game. Bennett converted 42 percent of his targets inside the 10 over the last three seasons. Gronk had a better rate of conversion from inside the 20 than Bennett did from inside the 10, and he converted a stunning 62.5 percent of his targets from 10 yards or fewer. Tom Brady throwing the football should help Bennett’s conversion rate, but there is little chance he is given the 1.1 red-zone targets per game he saw with the Bears.
Bennett is a good player who will help the Patriots in real life, but his best case scenario short of an injury to Gronk is as an inconsistent TE2. That is valuable in some leagues and will be interesting in DFS, but he is not worth a pick in shallow redraft leagues unless his is heavily involved in the offense during the preseason.
The situation Bennett left in Chicago is also interesting. The Bears appeared ready to hand the reins over to Zach Miller, who they gave a two-year, $6 million deal before shipping off Bennett, but that was before they signed Saints RFA Josh Hill to a three-year offer sheet. There are plenty of reasons not to get on the Hill hype train again, but signing him to an offer sheet clearly shows the Bears have concerns about Miller as the starting tight end. Those concerns are legitimate.
Already 31, Miller has never seen more than 46 targets in a season and did not play a snap from 2012-14. He was effective while Bennett was sidelined last season, catching 20 passes for 221 yards and two scores in four games, but he cannot be trusted to stay on the field all season. Miller should be a popular streamer and DFS play while he is healthy, but there are too many high-upside options in the later rounds to waste a pick. The same goes for Hill if he ends up in Chicago, which is likely based on the Saints’ cap situation, but he will be a name to watch if something happens to Miller.
Aside from Brian Quick and Andre Holmes breaking Dynasty owners’ hearts by re-signing with the Rams and Raiders respectively, the biggest receiver news surprisingly flew under the radar. Mike Wallace signed a two-year, $11.5 million deal to fill the Ravens’ desperate need for a deep threat. After playing with the laughably inaccurate Ryan Tannehill and noodle-armed Teddy Bridgewater for the last three seasons, Wallace will welcome the chance to play with Joe Flacco. He will have to compete with sophomore Breshad Perriman for the deep-threat role, but the money suggests he has a good shot to be involved. Only 29, Wallace will almost certainly be undervalued this draft season.
