Has Patrick Kane lost his grip on Hart Trophy?
On January 18, the Chicago Sun-Times noted that Patrick Kane was on his way to one of the finest offensive seasons in Chicago Blackhawks history.
“Kane’s season, which has already reached historic heights after his record breaking point streak, could rank as one of the best in franchise history. At this pace, Kane would finish in Blackhawks top 10 for goals scored, and top five for both assists and total points,” it said. “Kane’s projected totals: 118 points, 68 assists, 49 goals.”
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Just hand him the Hart Trophy as the Washington Post said 10 days later, right?
These projections are starting to take on “Bernie Sanders in Michigan” proportions of inaccuracy. Kane’s pace has come back down to Earth in the subsequent two months. February produced six goals and six assists. In his last nine games in March, he has three goals and four assists.
He currently has 39 goals (second to Ovechkin) and 53 assists (second to Erik Karlsson), although he leads the points race with 92, a full 12 ahead of Jamie Benn of the Dallas Stars.
Kane leads the NHL with 32 power-play points and with 60 even-strength points, although he’s hearing Evgeny Kuznetsov’s footsteps for the latter category (57 points) as well as Sidney Crosby’s (55).
The Washington Capitals’ forward isn’t a Hart Trophy threat thanks to the work of Braden Holtby – funny how Corey Crawford has never been a similar siphon for Kane, despite his best regular season of his career – but Crosby has aggressively entered the MVP thanks to the Pittsburgh Penguins’ standings surge, his points total (76) and as Matt Larkin points out, a healthy dose of recency bias:
The most common trait among MVPs over the past 10 seasons is wire-to-wire excellence. In other words, any player who stays dominant all year seems to cancel out a late-charging talent in voter eyes.
The ultimate question is whether we can consider Kane dominant wire to wire. He ran circles around the league with 73 points in 53 games before the all-star break. Since then: 19 points in 20 games. It’s a clear drop-off for Kane, who has always been a better first-half performer, but it’s not like his game has tanked.
There are two recent comparisons for Crosby as a Hart candidate: Corey Perry in 2011, who blew past Daniel Sedin at the end of the season with 15 goals in 14 games in March, despite a solid case that Sedin deserved it; and Alex Ovechkin in 2013, who led the Capitals “back from the dead” with 22 points in 13 games in April and 18 goals in his last 16 games overall.
But is there another wire-to-wire candidate that might threaten Kane?
Karlsson would be the obvious choice, but even he couldn’t elevate the Ottawa Senators this season. Jamie Benn has been brilliant, but he has Tyler Seguin. Anze Kopitar has been brilliant, but the Professional Hockey Writers Association sending Drew Doughty Norris Trophy Valentines aren’t going to put another Los Angeles King over for MVP.
Which brings us to Joe Thornton.
Jumbo is eighth in the NHL at 70 points in 72 games. Joe Pavelski is right behind him at 69 points. With Thornton, Pavs has a 3.59 goals-for average at even-strength. Away from him, its 1.89.
Adam Gretz thinks there’s a Hart case to be made for Thornton:
When you look at what Pavelski and Burns have done in their ice-time away from Thornton, it’s pretty clear that he is the one driving the bus for the group as all of their numbers see a pretty significant drop away from him. Pavelski has spent almost all of his ice-time at even-strength the past two seasons alongside Thornton, and I suspect that has played a sizable role in his continued goal-scoring surge.
When Thornton is not on the ice at all this season the Sharks are simply getting crushed. Without Thornton they are attempting just 49.3 percent of the total shot attempts during 5-on-5 play, a sign that they are spending way more time defending, while they have been outscored by a 93-73 margin in those minutes without him (a shockingly low goals for percentage of only 43.9 percent). That is a nearly seven percent drop in possession and an almost unbelievable 27.8 percent drop in goal differential.
Of course, there’s a lot to unpack with Thornton as an MVP candidate. Like the questions the punditry have about his “leadership” and the ever-present “East Coast Bias” and the lack of a narrative for Thornton’s candidacy – ‘oh, hey, you helped the Sharks to a playoff seed in a terrible division … here’s your cookie.’
Which brings us back to Crosby, who not only has recency bias on his side but the narrative: His inspired play after being unshackled from Mike Johnston has resurrected the Penguins.
In speaking to my fellow voters in the PHWA this season, there was never an “anyone but Kane” vibe at all. Despite any lingering issues with his off-ice behavior, his on-ice dominance was undeniable.
That’s why, as the probable Art Ross winner, it’s hard to imagine Kane won’t still win the Hart as the Blackhawks’ unquestioned offensive engine. But Crosby’s going to really make this a race, and may well win it as the Penguins continue to ascend.
(The Florida Panthers, by the way, ascended from the Eastern Conference abyss to first place in the Atlantic thanks in no small part to Roberto Luongo, but we can’t give a goalie the MVP in back-to-back seasons, can we?)
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Greg Wyshynski is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Contact him at [email protected] or find him on Twitter. His book, TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE PUCK, is available on Amazon and wherever books are sold.
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