MLB Stock Watch: Severino rising, Kazmir falling
STOCK UP
Luis Severino: He’s locked into the Yankees’ rotation, and the team says they won’t be holding Severino to any kind of innings limit, as they will allow him to reach 200+ if possible. He put up some big numbers in the minors and somehow managed a 2.89 ERA during his brief stint in the majors last season despite a 17.3 HR/FB%. Severino has a big fastball (95.3 mph) and induces a bunch of grounders (1.71 GB/FB), so just a small improvement in control could lead to a No. 2 starter type. Yankee Stadium and the AL East provide obstacles, but Severino has good stuff, and with the promise of him given a full workload, he’s moving up draft boards.
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Socrates Brito: He’s pushing to overtake Yasmany Tomas to be the Diamondbacks’ everyday left fielder. Brito had nine homers and 20 steals in fewer than 130 games in Double-A last season, while Tomas has sat out most of spring with a sore knee. Brito is just 23 years old, and this is a position battle well worth watching, as Chase Field is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Brito is worthy of a late round flier right now in deeper fantasy leagues.
Nick Markakis: He’s a boring option to be sure, but fantasy owners shouldn’t totally write off Markakis. He hit just three homers last season, but it’s clear he was playing at far less than 100% returning from offseason neck surgery, and he enters 2016 feeling much healthier, so a return to 12-15 long balls seems reasonable. Markakis is a career .291 hitter, and while the Braves’ lineup projects to be one of the worst in the league, at least Markakis will likely be hitting cleanup, directly in front of Freddie Freeman. He has an ADP of 240.8, so Markakis comes cheap, and he can be plenty useful in deep formats.
Avisail Garcia: It appeared Garcia was headed for a bench role once the White Sox signed Austin Jackson, but Adam LaRoche’s sudden retirement changed that. Garcia should now be Chicago’s everyday DH, and while he’s failed to live up to expectations, he’s still just 24 years old with barely 1,000 career major league at bats. For what it’s worth (almost certainly nothing), he’s posted a 1.279 OPS so far in spring, and U.S. Cellular Field has increased home runs for RHB by 13 percent over the last three seasons.
Andrew Bailey: David Hernandez was expected to enter the season as Philadelphia’s closer, but he was recently shelled in a minor league game after returning from triceps tendinitis that had him sidelined throughout spring. Hernandez has a career 4.15 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, so he never really fit the profile even before dealing with arm issues. Bailey, meanwhile, has tossed four scoreless innings with a 5:0 K:BB ratio and is reportedly the new favorite to enter the year in the closer’s role. He hasn’t been an effective major leaguer since 2013 and hasn’t thrown 50.0 innings in a season since he was a rookie in 2009, so this is something of a long shot, but Bailey owns a career 9.25 K/9 rate, and any possible closer deserves to be on the fantasy radar.
STOCK DOWN
Billy Hamilton: It’s been disconcerting to see Hamilton still missing time with a shoulder injury he had surgically repaired during the offseason this close to the start of the year. He recently returned to action, but the team hasn’t ruled out him starting 2016 on the disabled list. Hamilton went an impressive 57-for-65 on SB attempts in just 412 at bats last year, but that came with an ugly .226/.274/.289 line. Strong defense (and playing for a non-contending team) should result in him keeping his job, but Hamilton’s essentially a one category player who’s still dealing with a balky shoulder, so there’s plenty of risk here.
Scott Kazmir: Joining the NL in a pitcher’s park and throwing to Yasmani Grandal, Kazmir’s fantasy arrow sure seemed to be pointing up after signing with the Dodgers during the offseason, but his fastball has disturbingly sat in the 86-89 mph range all spring. It’s not uncommon for a pitcher’s velocity to be down this time of year, but Kazmir has an extensive injury history, and he struggled mightily down the stretch last season, posting a 6.52 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over 29.0 innings in September. There’s cause for concern.
Rich Hill: It’s almost always best to ignore spring performance, but Hill might be a different case. He was terrific reentering the scene last year, recording a 1.55 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP with a 36:5 K:BB ratio over 29.0 innings. But that was a small sample, and before that, he had totaled 75.2 innings in the majors since 2009. And about that spring performance; Hill has allowed 13 earned runs while walking 12 batters with a .385 BAA over 7.2 innings, which has to be at least taken into consideration.
Arodys Vizcaino: He’s likely to emerge as Atlanta’s most effective reliever in 2016, but it sounds increasingly like manager Fredi Gonzalez is going to play matchups with his bullpen. While that’s the shrewd move in “real life,” it’s bad news for fantasy owners, as the Braves’ saves would be spread out.
Ryan Zimmerman: Everyone knows about Zimmerman’s durability concerns, which have by now been priced into his ever dropping ADP. He managed 16 homers and 73 RBI in just 346 at bats last season, and it appeared he might be a nice target slated to hit cleanup behind Bryce Harper. But him battling plantar fasciitis all spring with no signs of it letting up any time soon is just another reminder of how big a health liability Zimmerman continues to be. His OPS has dropped each of the past three seasons, and he simply can’t be relied upon at this point.
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