Weekly Picks: Fuzzy Logic: Week 31 Rankings
Why Pellegrini, why?
Nothing gets under the skin of a fantasy Premier League manager more than an injury to one of his or her players that occurs during a non-league match. Such is my disdain for the recent re-occurring calf injury to Vincent Kompany, which took place just five minutes into Manchester City’s Champion’s League match earlier this week. It is all the more annoying when City already had a comfortable aggregate lead, meaning Pellegrini had the opportunity to rest a player like Kompany. Maybe I am being Captain Hindsight here, but given Kompany’s track record with injury this season, surely Pellegrini has to know that he is only going to get so much from the club captain and to look for any opportunity to rest him. A midweek match in the second leg of a CL contest with a comfortable lead seemed like the perfect chance to let Kompany sit this one out. Well, who knows? Maybe this was bound to happen five minutes into Kompany’s next shift, whether it be midweek or this weekend in the Manchester derby. At least as a Kompany owner, I can hopefully do better than what could have been a one point return from the Belgian.
Adding to the bitterness of the injury occurring in the first place is that, for me, Kompany was brought into my FPL side a couple of weeks ago with the eye toward building an XI for Gameweek 34 when there will be clubs like Manchester City with a double gameweek. Injury history aside, he seemed a perfect buy. When fit, he helps his club keep opponents out with regularity and, at the time of purchase, he was available at an attractive price of 6.1m. Last weekend, we saw evidence of his appeal as he bagged the maximum three bonus points in the process. Heading into Week 30, with half the clubs not playing, Manchester City represented the perfect club to invest in. They were playing Week 30, had a double gameweek in the cards for sure and, typically, they have plenty of prospects that deliver good fantasy returns. I spent much time building an FPL team with a plan that would give me a full XI for Week 30 while making transfers that would give me eleven double gameweek players for Week 34 without taking any point hits or using a WC. The only way for the plan to work was for every player I was keeping and every new transfer in had to stay fit. Now, with Kompany out “at least a month”, that puts his best case scenario return right on that double Gameweek 34. So, even if I chose to stash him and hope he was ready by mid-April, I would then have to wonder if Pellegrini would opt to start him in both games of that busy week. He probably won’t. But you see Manuel, THAT was the logic you should have had in place when choosing your XI for the Champions League THIS week. Pardon me, I have to put on this brace for my neck to prevent myself from shaking my head too much.
Kompany injury aside, it was a solid week for fantasy. A full XI in a week with half the fixture list postponed showed to be a lucrative situation, as it should be. I earned a very healthy green arrow despite being one of many sad managers that gave the armband to Sergio Aguero. There is something about that early Saturday kickoff that takes whatever you expect to happen and have it go completely wrong. Let that be a warning to those looking at Everton or Arsenal players as a captain source this week. I feel like there should be goals from both sides, but, this is the Premier League. Expecting the unexpected should be a normal practice for fantasy managers.
So, we are back to a full plate of matches this round. Let us waste no further time then, and begin to look at what is on the schedule for Week 31…
Week 31 Fixtures
Everton v Arsenal
Chelsea v West Ham United
Crystal Palace v Leicester City
Watford v Stoke City
West Bromwich Albion v Norwich City
Swansea City v Aston Villa
Newcastle United v Sunderland
Southampton v Liverpool
Manchester City v Manchester United
Tottenham v AFC Bournemouth
Naturally, you have to consider both derbies as the top matches to view this weekend from an entertainment perspective, though I am not so sure about the fantasy appeal from both. These sort of affairs seem to have production coming from unlikely sources, so expect names like Jack Colback or Ander Herrera to grab the headlines. I like investment both in attacking and defending for Swansea City and Tottenham this week. Both at home, the Swans have the easy opponent while Spurs have a title to challenge. It will be interesting to see if Liverpool can keep up their form, they are getting much production from their attack these days and are catching the Saints at a good time. Chelsea and West Ham should be lively. The Blues have the current longest unbeaten run in the league but no club has earned more points in their last six than the Hammers. With Norwich defending for their lives to get points in the table and West Brom being difficult to score against on their ground, this clash could easily end 0-0, though the form of Salomon Rondon will have something to say about that. I wouldn’t expect more than a goal from each side in the Watford v Stoke match.
Follow the RotoWorld_PL team on Twitter: Galin | Jeremy | Neal | Nik | Steve | Ben | Rob | Matt | Andrew
What follows are my top picks at each position. It doesn’t matter what format you play, these rankings will help you figure out how players at each position compare with one another, and can help you on transfer decisions in the FPL.com game, who to start or bench in draft leagues, and who is worth putting up the cash for in salary-based leagues. You will also see how I have begun to highlight prospects that are especially valuable in formats like Playtogga, Fantrax and DFS, so that they are given the credit they deserve. At the end of the day though, nothing gets the points flowing more than goals, assists and clean sheets. So without further ado, let’s get cracking…
GOALKEEPERS
Hugo Lloris – Spurs should have a strong side with rested players from tonight’s Europa 2nd leg. The Cherries have been on a positive run but Lloris and company will be focused on their title challenge and the benefit of playing at home.
Lukasz Fabianski – Fabianski has generally been better the second of the season for Swansea though he did look at fault for one of the goals they coughed up last week. That said, a home game against Villa is the biggest reason to back him this round.
Ben Foster – The Pulis effect at home hasn’t been as reliable this season as it has in previous ones, but the Baggies are coming off a home clean sheet against Manchester United so it seems reasonable to expect them to have a good chance of repeating it against the Canaries.
Heurelho Gomes – Watford have been pretty solid defending at home and they are amid a three game stretch where they’ve conceded only once, with two of their opponents being Chelsea and Leicester. Gomes is a solid play this week then against Stoke City.
Kasper Schmeichel – Last week for the Foxes was further evidence that it has been a tale of two seasons for them. Chapter one was relying on 3-2 wins. Chapter 2 is all about 1-0 wins. The defense is their strength right now as they travel to Crystal Palace.
Jack Butland – This is the point where clean sheet chances look to take a massive dip in the ranks. Butland makes the cut from his season-long performance and Watford’s somewhat one-dimensional attack.
DEFENDERS
Toby Alderweireld – If I’m backing Lloris as the #1 keeper this week, it follows that I give Alderweireld the top spot at defender. Considering he’s the top defender in FPL on the season, it isn’t a difficult decision to make.
Ashley Williams – Clean sheets and bonus points are no stranger to Williams and it would seem both are up for grabs with the Jacks hosting basement-dwelling Villa.
Branislav Ivanovic – It is a tricky fixture for Chelsea against the Hammers but the Blues will have to be poor on both sides of the ball for Ivanovic to not have a good crack at a points haul.
Danny Rose – Ben Davies is all but assured of getting the nod at left back tonight in Europa League action so Rose will be fresh and hungry at the Lane against Bournemouth on Sunday.
Christian Fuchs – In the first 18 weeks for the Foxes, Fuchs notched a total of three bonus points in FPL. In the twelve weeks since, he has thirteen. If Leicester do well at Selhurst Park, odds are Fuchs will enjoy a fine fantasy day.
Patrick van Aanholt – The form is not there at the moment but PvA is still an attacking threat playing in a plus fixture. I feel good about his chances of returning something, whether it’s from attacking or defending.
Jonas Olsson – Switch this name to Craig Dawson if Dawson is declared fit before the deadline. Olsson has been nailed on for the Baggies in the second half of the season and has a good crack with the rest of the back line at a clean sheet against Norwich.
Eric Dier – He’s walking the suspension tightrope right now, but Dier still offers out-of-position clean sheet potential despite his penchant for yellow cards.
Robert Huth – Where Fuchs offers consistency, Huth has a chance at a monster score with his goal-scoring threat. Even if he fails there, the defending points are a fair prospect.
Virgil van Dijk – One good van deserves another. Like van Aanholt, I rate VvD this week to come up with something at home against the Reds, whether it be attacking or defending, with a smidgen of a chance at both.
Charlie Daniels – While I back Spurs for a clean sheet, I am not a fortune-teller. If the Cherries get a positive result in this one, Daniels is the poor man’s Leighton Baines, offering massive attacking upside from his position. Maybe it’s time to say Baines is the rich man’s Daniels instead.
Nathan Ake – Probably ranked too low here, Watford have a good shot at a clean sheet I feel. Ake is the representative you want, offering that small amount of attacking potential to go with a possible defensive haul.
MIDFIELDERS
Gylfi Sigurdsson – He has scored in seven of his last eleven games. He is home to Aston Villa. I cannot recall a midfielder more likely to score a goal in a given gameweek, hence he given top billing here.
Roberto Firmino – When you are averaging double digit returns in the form guide, you ignore all but the toughest of fixtures. The Saints defense has been struggling somewhat recently. Firmino looks a safe bet to return something.
Dimitri Payet – Payet is also in a fine run of form, both in league and cup play, and a fixture at Stamford Bridge is not enough for me to have a lack of confidence in his potential.
Riyad Mahrez – Fifteen goals and eleven assists is what sets Mahrez as the top fantasy scorer on the season. No attacking returns last week but, with his track record, that only leads me to believe that the man is due.
Mesut Ozil – It will not be an easy task to beat a confident Everton side, but I think there will be goals for both teams here. Still with his sights on the league record for assists in one season, Ozil will have some motivation to deliver.
Dele Alli – With two assists last weekend, Alli is now tied for second in the league in that department and is level on the season for total points with Christian Eriksen. Not bad for an FPL prospect that cost 4.9m in FPL as late as gameweek 12.
Georginio Wijnaldum – There is only one reason Wijnaldum has accrued as many fantasy points as he has this season – playing in home games against bottom-tier sides. That is exactly what he has on his plate this weekend in the Tyne-Wear derby.
Michail Antonio – There is only one midfielder that has scored in there last three league games and it is this man. Payet is still the preferred option but Antonio has cemented his status as legit fantasy producer.
Christian Eriksen – Eriksen’s fantasy appeal seems to have take a hit with the emergence of Dele Alli but he is still a goof weapon to have this week at home against the Cherries.
Alexis Sanchez – The last league game for Arsenal saw Sanchez score for the first time in a long time, and it was a big one, leveling the score against Tottenham in the North London derby. He had an assist the week before that. Perhaps he is soon returning to a player you can trust.
David Silva – Yes, City put on a bit up a fantasy dud with their attacking players last weekend, but when they were threatening Norwich, Silva was the creative force as he so often can be. This is a big game for City, not just because it is the derby with United, but a win for the Red Devils would see them within a point of their crosstown rivals. The Sky Blues have been far more dependable at The Etihad.
Follow the RotoWorld_PL team on Twitter: Galin | Jeremy | Neal | Nik | Steve | Ben | Rob | Matt | Andrew
FORWARDS
Harry Kane – Coming off a brace that sees him now the joint leader with Jamie Vardy on goals scored this season, Kane now plays in front of the home crowd and is a strong bet to score.
Romelu Lukaku – Goals in three of his past four league games and a brace against Chelsea in the FA Cup last weekend is all the credentials you need to back Lukaku, even with a tough opponent like Arsenal.
Sergio Aguero – He misfired against the Canaries last week and the Manchester derby always has that chance of being a 0-0 stinker, but Aguero’s class is worthy enough of placement here. A brace should be as little a surprise as a blank.
Salomon Rondon – Seems madness to have Rondon ranked this high, but he has scored in four of his last five starts and the one in which he did not score, he assisted. When you combine that form with the fixture, home to Norwich, you have to feel good about his chances.
Jamie Vardy – If there is any competive nature in Vardy, and I have a slight suspicion that there is, he will be goal hungry now that he is sharing the league lead in that department rather than alone at the top.
Graziano Pelle – Pelle finally broke his scoring drought in a convincing way, bagging a brace and nearly turning a trick last weekend. When he is in form, he has shown to bang them in with regularity so I am willing to put my neck out for him this week with a decent ranking.
Odion Ighalo – Keep in mind, Ighalo is injury-flagged as of this writing, but he is expected to shake off a minor injury in time for the weekend. He scored a big goal in the FA Cup win over Arsenal last weekend, a sign that another scoring run for him may be in store.
Andy Carroll – The Hammers are in good form right now and Carroll appears to be the starting striker for them. Always a threat with his head, I can see Payet and the rest of the midfield supplying plenty of chances for him.
Jermain Defoe – I may look very silly if Defoe doesn’t start here, but my gut says that, in a derby match, Sam Allardyce will want his experience. I am not sold on Rafa Benitez making the Newcastle defense any better.
Alberto Paloschi – This is pure fixture-based but, when you are home to Aston Villa, you can get ranked in those circumstances.
Good luck this week fellow managers, and may your arrows be green.
