Matchday Wrap Up: Monday Morning Manager – WK30
It hasn’t been much of a Week 30 so far. With only five matches scheduled and one of those five, Leicester City at Newcastle, yet to be played there just isn’t that much from the Premier League to discuss. We could talk more about City’s post-Pep slump after they dropped two points to Norwich City but that’s been done so I’m not going to spend my time there. Instead I’m going to talk about the potential for a new world order in the Premier League.
You might think from that lofty topic that I’m going to go on about Leicester City but this isn’t a fairy tale but rather a discussion of the evolving realities of economics and geography in the world game. The clubs in question for the purposes of this discussion are Spurs, West Ham, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United. The topic up for debate is whether either of the first two clubs on the list, Spurs and/or West Ham, can supplant any of the latter three as regular participants in the Champions League.
Like the increasingly likely notion of Leicester City winning the title, this is an exercise in suspending what we’ve thought of particular clubs for many years and taking a hard, realistic look at what they are now and what they’re likely to be in the next few years. That involves looking at why players, especially foreign players, choose the clubs that they choose when coming to England and how those dynamics might be changing.
The press likes to talk a lot about the influence of a club’s history on a player’s choice to come join them. We see lots of quotes from players talking of how they dreamt of playing for Manchester United or Liverpool as a youngster growing up in Madrid, Barcelona, New Jersey, or Lagos. Let’s not fool ourselves when reading those quotes though, the reason that those players chose the clubs that they chose was an economic one. No supporter wants to hear “I chose Manchester United because they showered me with enough cash that it made it worth my while to live in a place I wouldn’t otherwise consider living.” So agents and the media play up club history and dreams of youth and other, similar themes that help endear that player to his new supporters.
But things change. In the late 90s and early 2000s it was Arsenal and Manchester United who were clearly at the front of the Premier League line in terms of attracting world class talent to the league. Manchester United could pay the most and offer the highest profile to their players with Arsenal lagging behind in success and salary but offering London as a superior place to live. The advent of Roman Abramovich’s money and Jose Mourinho’s success at Chelsea changed the equation making Arsenal the second most attractive club in London and Manchester United the second most financially well-off club in the Premier League. When Manchester City came into their deep-pocketed ownership the situation turned once again with Chelsea and City at the top of the “willing/able to pay” list.
I think we can reasonably generalize and say that premium available talent looks at the opportunities in front of them in the transfer market and prioritizes them as follows:
- How much money will I be making?
- How likely am I to be in the Champions League/win things and make myself even more marketable?
- What is the likely impact on me playing for my national team (and, again, making myself more marketable)?
- Where would I be living? (e.g., How nice a city? Would my girlfriend/wife/family be comfortable there? Do I speak the language?)
- How impressed am I with everything I see when I come for a visit?
That isn’t the entire list and I certainly don’t want to imply that it is the same for every player but the players for whom this isn’t the list isn’t predictable and isn’t something that you can build a strategy around.
Let’s take a look at exactly how things continue to change with respect to these factors:
Money. There is nothing to suggest that anyone is going to assail the dominant position occupied by Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United when it comes to how much money they can offer. What is changing is the gap between what those three clubs can offer and what others can offer. The new TV contract is pretty much neutral between every club in the Premier League so it doesn’t offer any significant advantage for Spurs or West Ham assuming that the big boys are willing to increase the salaries on offer on scale with the increase in money coming in. What is changing for West Ham starting next season and Spurs starting in a few seasons is that they will have big, spanking new stadiums to help them close the “match day revenue” gap. If they continue to be successful and compete in Europe then there’s every reason to think that their shirt and kit sponsorships will increase as well.
Winning Things. With every season that a Manchester United or Chelsea spend outside of the Champions League and every season that a West Ham or a Spurs spends in that competition, this gap closes as well. Spurs have been hanging out at the edge of the picture for some time and have, seemingly, been held back by finances and the fact that top players didn’t want to come for fear of getting caught outside of the big limelight. By bringing a couple of superstar-caliber players in Harry Kane and Dele Alli up through the ranks, Spurs manufactured their opportunity to break through the glass ceiling. If they can keep those two and play a in the Champions League for a couple of seasons in a row then there’s no reason to think that they couldn’t make the same leap that Atletico Madrid have made in Spain under Diego Simione.
National Team Impact. With winning comes more benefit of the doubt when it comes to playing for your national team. Players like Rio Ferdinand, Frank Lampard, Michael Carrick, and Sol Campbell all felt they had to leave clubs like Spurs and West Ham to be regular players for their national teams. Part of that desire is pride but there is also a significant change in post-football opportunity if you can put “former XXX international” on your resume. The extent to which Spurs and West Ham are no longer viewed as a potential impediment to that by players foreign and domestic (and, make no mistake, playing in the Champions League regularly will clear that impediment unequivocally) will be the extent to which they can use their newfound wealth in the market to greater effect.
Location. The thing that likely has Fenway Sports Group and Stan Kroenke quaking in their respective boots. Liverpool and Arsenal have had historical and financial might to lord over clubs like West Ham and Spurs for a long time. Advantages in reputation and wages offered made Liverpool more attractive than either London club with Arsenal offering both of those things plus a London location. If Spurs and West Ham both offer at least semi-regular Champions League football and a London location then they should be at par with Arsenal and above Liverpool in the pecking order for most players. This is why Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea and expected he could turn it into a self-sustaining powerhouse. London matters.
Working Conditions. I played in a charity match at Highbury before it closed. It was charming and a great venue for a supporter to soak in the atmosphere that helped build the Premier League into the juggernaut it is today. What it wasn’t was a very comfortable place to spend your time as a player. The locker rooms were cramped and dark. The showers looked like something out of a museum. In short, it was old. The Emirates may not have nearly the charm of its predecessor but when an athlete, who cares little for the exterior, is shown the bowels of the stadium where they will be spending their time, I’m pretty sure it shows far better than quaint Highbury. Spurs and West Ham will likely be getting that same bump in the attractiveness of their facilities to prospective players in the next couple of years.
The picture I’m trying to paint is one not of a pre-destined changing of the guard but of a new-found need to be competitive on every front. Spurs and West Ham are where they are this season because they have done more with less and some of their bigger rivals have conspired to do far less with much more. What makes this different than the Gareth Bale edition of Spurs that made it to the Champions League or even this season’s Leicester City who will achieve the same thing is that there is at least a chance to sustain it. The London advantage plus high achievement plus new stadiums and the revenue streams they will yield mean that Arsenal, Liverpool and even Manchester United had better watch out or their spots as presumptive giants of the English game might be threatened.
Right now, West Ham and Spurs are being run better than either of those three bigger rivals and they have reinforcements on the way in the form of cash. If Arsenal, Liverpool and United don’t start using their resources more effectively then they could quickly find themselves on the path that saw Liverpool give way to Arsenal as United’s main rival at the dawn of the Premier League era.
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The Title Race (Ranked from favorites to most likely to miss out on the Champions League)
Leicester City – The Foxes don’t play until later today. They got a little help from City who dropped points to Norwich City but, let’s face it, Spurs are really their worry right now. Maybe Rafa Benitez will provoke an immediate improvement from the Magpies but the Foxes are just more talented and there’s only so much that any manager can do with that defense.
Tottenham – Back on track with a comfortable 2-0 win against Aston Villa. Not much to report on here.
Manchester City – Arsenal and City are doing their best to allow Manchester United and West Ham back into the race for the Champions League. Two dropped points at Carrow Road is a bit of a disaster for City heading into the Manchester Derby next weekend. Arsenal’s dire form means that City are still pretty safe when it comes to qualification for next season’s Champions League but they’re certainly not helping themselves much.
The Second Tier (Ranked from most likely to break into the Champions League to least likely)
Arsenal – In the wake of Arsenal’s FA Cup elimination, the conservative Arsenal supporter (the ones who aren’t advocating for Wenger to be dismissed) are pointing to the Manchester United situation and saying “be careful what you wish for”. That makes sense at one level but it isn’t one that is satisfying to me. If you agree that Wenger is a good-but-flawed manager who isn’t going to push the club to a title even in a season when the rest of the league is practically begging them to win it then you’re saying that you’re satisfied as perpetual fourth place finishers with a shot to win a domestic cup from time-to-time. There’s no guarantee that a replacement will push things forward but what I think we’ve learned for certain is that Wenger is going to ride this same treadmill of being either unwilling or unable to put together a squad capable of sustaining a real title push. Whether his flaw is in assembling the talent or managing that talent isn’t clear until that talent ends up elsewhere. What is clear is that it isn’t working. The clubs that have outspent Arsenal aren’t beating them, it’s the clubs that are buying better or managing better or both and that is the ultimate indictment of a manager who, since the decision to move from Highbury to the Emirates was made, claimed that the gap was purely a financial one. Well, this season it isn’t and it’s still not working.
West Ham United – The biggest case against Arsenal retaining Wenger is sitting just below them in the table. The Hammers have, in the course of one summer, transformed themselves with a managerial appointment and a few smart transfers that didn’t break the bank from mid-table mediocrity to the edge of Champions League qualification. Slaven Bilic was certainly not a slam dunk as a managerial hire but what it proves is that there are people out there who aren’t “brand names” who can get the job done with the right tools and backing around them.
Manchester United – United got a late goal from Anthony Martial to draw with the Hammers in the FA Cup but with the tie returning to Upton Park for the replay, it felt much more like a victory for the Hammers and yet another smack to the face of United supporters who, presumably, keep hoping that things will start to turn around.
The Relegation Battle (Ranked from most likely to be relegated to least)
Aston Villa – Start reserving your seats for Championship matches soon! They’re going fast! What? They’re not?
Norwich City – A nice point against City at Carrow Road but points need to come in groups of three for the Canaries to start feeling better about their chances.
Newcastle United – They don’t play until later today and Sunderland were off so no real movement on the jockeying to stay out of the third relegation spot.
Sunderland – They were off.
Swansea, West Brom, and Bournemouth – The Baggies were off but Bournemouth bested Swansea 3-2 in a battle of teams looking to ensure safety. Bournemouth are truly safe at this point with 38 points and sitting in 13th place. An amazing accomplishment. For people looking for a late-season pick-up in draft/auction leagues and/or for a pick-up in dynasty or keeper formats, Max Gradel has looked strong since returning from injury. With Callum Wilson coming back as well the Cherries’ attack should be something special next season with Wilson, Afobe, King, Gradel, Ritchie, and Stanislas all available. If they can find their equivalents of N’Golo Kante, Robert Huth and Christian Fuchs over the summer then they could make a big move the pecking order next season. To be clear, that will be no easy task.
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