First Four Preview: Last at-large teams try to prove they belong
The First Four tips off Tuesday night in Dayton. To help you decide whether any of the four games is worth scouring all 1,400 cable channels to hunt down TruTV, here’s a closer look at each of the matchups:
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No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast (20-13) vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (18-14)
Tipoff time: Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. ET (TruTV)
Players to watch: Marc Eddy Norelia, F, Florida Gulf Coast; Earl Potts Jr., G, Fairleigh Dickinson
Why it’s worth watching: Do you like transition dunks, uncontested jumpers and points by the truckload? Then Fairleigh Dickinson is the team for you! The Knights are 333rd in defensive efficiency, by far the worst in the NCAA tournament. In a contrast from its “Dunk City” days under Andy Enfield, Florida Gulf Coast is actually 267th in tempo this year, but fear not! You can bet TruTV will devote a good portion of the broadcast to highlights of the Eagles’ high-flying, swashbuckling 2013 NCAA tournament victories over Georgetown and San Diego State.
Why you should skip it: The best team Florida Gulf Coast beat all season is North Florida. The best team Fairleigh Dickinson beat all season is Towson. Your rec league team stands about as good a chance of beating North Carolina on Thursday as the winner of this game does.
Key to the game: Can Florida Gulf Coast punish Fairleigh Dickinson on the glass? A huge reason the Knights are so poor defensively is because they surrender offensive rebounds on 36 percent of missed shots. That’s not ideal against anyone, let alone a Florida Gulf Coast team with good size in Norelia and 6-foot-9 Antravious Simmons
Projected winner: Florida Gulf Coast
No. 12 Wichita State (24-8) vs. No. 12 Vanderbilt (19-13)
Tipoff time: Tuesday, 9:10 p.m. ET (TruTV)
Players to watch: Ron Baker, G, Wichita State; Wade Baldwin, G, Vanderbilt
Why it’s worth watching: Two teams that had higher aspirations than the First Four will meet for the right to keep their hopes alive of salvaging something from this season. Vanderbilt has NBA prospects at point guard and center and an array of shooters around them. Wichita State is headlined by Baker and Fred VanVleet, pillars of past teams that made the Final Four in 2013, went undefeated in the regular season in 2014 and toppled Kansas in the round of 32 last year. Both are in the top 30 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings.
Why you should skip it: Honestly, you shouldn’t. This is the most compelling First Four game in the event’s brief history. If you’re going to watch one of these games, this is the matchup to choose.
Key to the game: Will VanVleet and Baker get any help? Sometimes the Shockers become too reliant on their stars, as evidenced by the fact that no other player on the team averages more than eight points per game. Wichita State needs forwards Anton Grady and Markis McDuffie in particular to make an impact offensively.
Projected winner: Vanderbilt
No. 16 Holy Cross (14-19) vs. No. 16 Southern (22-12)
Tipoff time: Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. ET (TruTV)
Players to watch: Malachi Alexander, F, Holy Cross; Adrian Rodgers, G, Southern
Why it’s worth watching: The last time Southern made the NCAA tournament as a No. 16 seed in 2013, it pushed top-seeded Gonzaga from the opening tipoff until the final minute in a 64-58 loss. Holy Cross doesn’t have as successful a recent NCAA tournament history but the Crusaders do have familiar head coach. Bill Carmody coached previously at Princeton and Northwestern.
Why you should skip it: Cal Poly finished eighth in the Patriot League this season and lost five games to teams 250th or below in the RPI. Southern plays in the nation’s second worst Division I conference and still lost seven league games. The Golden State Warriors, these teams are not.
Key to the game: Can Alexander continue his March hot streak? The 6-foot-7 junior averaged a modest 12 points per game this season, but he erupted for 83 points in four Patriot League tournament games. The slow-paced, offensively challenged Crusdaers need that type of production from him again to advance.
Projected winner: Southern
No. 11 Tulsa (20-11) vs. No. 11 Michigan (22-12)
Tipoff time: Wednesday, 9:10 p.m. ET (TruTV)
Players to watch: James Woodard, G, Tulsa; Duncan Robinson, G, Michigan
Why it’s worth watching: For the previous two days, Tulsa will have heard all about how it didn’t belong in the NCAA tournament. This is the Golden Hurricane’s chance to prove it belongs against a Michigan team with quality wins over Purdue, Maryland, Indiana and Texas and no losses to sub-100 RPI opponents.
Why you should skip it: Tulsa just dropped a pair of games to middling Memphis by a combined 32 points. Michigan is 4-12 all season against the RPI top 100. Rather than watch this, perhaps it would be wise to get some work done or to take your significant other out for dinner and a movie so that nobody bothers you come Thursday and Friday.
Key to the game: Few teams in the country are more 3-point reliant than Michigan, which has a trio of elite shooters in Robinson, Aubrey Dawkins and Derrick Walton Jr. Few teams in the country surrender more 3-pointers than Tulsa. If the Golden Hurricane can’t mark shooters in transition or run them off the arc, their stay in the NCAA tournament will be short.
Projected winner: Michigan
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
