Bracket Flames: Cal a ‘Golden’ ticket worth buying
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Only a hop, skip and Jaylen Brown jump from Berkeley, filled oak barrels housed inside Sonoma wineries sit undisturbed. Nature’s chemistry is at work. Using centuries-old science, yeasts morph sugars from juiced grapes into alcohol, the process of fermentation.
Over several weeks, various flavors meld into a concoction winemakers hope will invigorate the palate of the average consumer or well-trained sommelier …
Head coaches, like any established vintner, approach their jobs similarly.
Starting in November, they tinker with lineups, defensive schemes and motivational ploys in an attempt to build a March contender. Trials and tribulations are unavoidable, but steadfast patience and perseverance can erase previous mistakes, trump adversity and unlock potential.
California shot caller Cuonzo Martin should know.
Just like a fine wine, the Bears have gotten better with time.
When the final buzzer sounded inside the Coors Event Center on Jan. 31, the Golden Bears were placed in a perilous position. Downed by Colorado 70-62, they had dropped their fifth game in a month, tumbling to 14-8 overall and 4-5 in the Pac-12. The fashionable preseason favorite, which numerous pundits forecasted would either challenge Arizona or win the conference outright, were wallowing in underachievement. Simply staying afloat was an arduous task.
Martin tapped into his past.
Instead of ripping into his team, the mild-mannered coach, who overcame East St. Louis hardships to become a decorated player at Purdue and conquered non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma as a pro in 2002, emphasized a ‘what doesn’t kill you, only makes you stronger’ mentality. He knew the talent was clearly there, but crystallizing it was his biggest challenge.
Even in defeat Martin stressed unity, positivity and patience. To drive home his point, he reconfigured practices and stimulated his players with historical quotes and movie clips, bits of inspiration he hoped would spark a turnaround.
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No doubt, he pushed the right buttons.
Cal enters its opening round game against Hawaii on a lightning bolt. It was unblemished at home (17-0) for the first time in 66 years and emerged victorious in eight of its final nine regular season contests. And it reached the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament, undercutting Oregon St. before losing to Utah in overtime. Next to Kansas and Michigan St., there may be no team playing better basketball.
Why should you debate Cal’s Final Four merits on your bracket? Here are four reasons why it’s the most dangerous mid-seed in this year’s field:
Pure talent. Arguably, there is no more skilled starting five than the Golden Bears’. Brown and Ivan Rabb are projected lottery picks in June’s NBA Draft. Jabari Bird, who flourished down the stretch, was a highly touted five-star prospect when he first stepped on campus three years ago. Tyrone Wallace and Jordan Matthews are often electric scorers who averaged a combined 28.5 points per game. And seven-footer Kameron Rooks, son of 12-year NBA vet Sean Rooks, is a pedigreed post player with plus instincts. Basically, the Bears are stupid loaded.
Staunch defense. Blessed with obscene length, athleticism and speed, Cal rotates quickly to the ball, clamps down and generally makes life difficult for opponents. Whether employing zone or man it’s highly disruptive. On paper, the Bears concede a mere 0.93 points per possession and rank top-30 nationally in several additional categories, including defensive rebounding percentage. Point blank, it’s a tall task to score on them.
Balanced scoring. All five starters average double figures. Among Power Five tournament participants only Iowa St. can boast the same. Among Cal’s regulars, Wallace is the club’s worst shooter. And he nets a very respectable 41.4 percent from the field. Sam Singer and Rooks are also key contributors off the bench tallying a combined 7.0 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Collectively, it tallies 1.11 points per possession, generates abundant second-chance opportunities and splashes over 36 percent from downtown. Bottom line, the Bears keep throwing scorers at you.
Frontcourt depth. Pundits love tossing around the importance of guard play in a single-elimination format. Though it plays a crucial role, paint performance is equally valuable. Not only equipped with an adequate backcourt, the Bears feature the tallest team in the NCAA tournament field. Brown, Rabb, Rooks and occasional contributor Kingsley Okoroh are all listed at 6-foot-7-plus. Even guards Wallace and Matthews measure out at 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-4 respectively. With so many cell-phone towers on roster, it’s no wonder why Cal is one of the better rebounding teams in the Dance.
To be fair, Marshawn Lynch U isn’t without inadequacies. It shoots a lousy 65.6 percent from the charity stripe, struggled at times with turnovers and, up until the last month of the regular season, suffered on the road. Still, it has the characteristics needed to make noise this March.
It’s been 56 years since Cal last appeared in a Final Four and it has a tough row to hoe with a potential Sweet Sixteen matchup versus Kansas. But thanks to Martin’s sticktoitiveness and timely tweaks, that drought may soon end.
If it does, expect its fanbase to raise a celebratory glass, or three.
Here are four additional underdogs (No. 6 seeds or lower) that could channel Cinderella:
Northern Iowa Panthers (22-12, No. 11 seed, West region)
When people hear ‘Northern Iowa’ images of Ali Farokhmanesh’s plunged dagger against Kansas in the 2010 NCAA Tournament immediately plays in the mind. Though the Panthers advanced to the Round of 32 last year, the casual fan always recalls that Sweet Sixteen team. This year’s group could forge similar memories. There isn’t a No. 11 seed with more multi-win potential than UNI. Though blackened by several unwanted losses, it recorded four wins against tournament competition, including marquee names North Carolina and Iowa St. The Panthers’ brand of basketball isn’t Brian Boitano on ice. On offense, it’s often coarse, irregular and boggled, evidenced in its No. 135 offensive efficiency ranking. However, it does shoot over 37 percent from three and converts 75 percent from the charity stripe. But there is an unappreciated beauty about the MVC rep, its defense. The Panthers’ D mindset is akin to that of a pugnacious nightclub bouncer. They lock in, throw punches and often leave opponents dazed. This year, they surrendered only 0.97 points per possession and a 32.6 percent three-point percentage. Tough, experienced and resilient, and entering the Dance on a torrid 12-of-13 win streak, it has Sweet Sixteen qualities. Similar to what he did in the MVC final against Evansville, senior Wes Washpun may pull another rabbit or two out of the hat.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-7, No. 11 seed, Midwest region)
The former mid-major darling turned perennial monster is fortunate to have extended its NCAA tournament appearance streak to 18. If not for an unblemished run through the West Coast Conference bracket, it would currently be an NIT participant. However, that perspective is water under the bridge. The ‘Zags are not only dancing, they’re about to go all booze-cruise Gronk on the field. In some areas, the Bulldogs own elite qualities. They rank top-45 in offensive and defensive efficiency, are dialed in from downtown (36.8 3PT%), protect the rock, box out beautifully and plunge daggers at the free-throw line (76.0 FT%). Gonzaga’s frontcourt is its strength. Kyle Wiltjer, a sensational, versatile scorer who’s an extreme matchup problem at 6-foot-10, and Damontas Sabonis, a brutish doubles-doubles machine who overpowers the post, are a handful. The key to Gonzaga’s tournament permanence lies solely in its guard play. If Eric McClellan and Josh Perkins execute at a similar brilliant level they did in the WCC tourney, this team is a near lock for at least one win. Recall Mark Few’s bunch beat UConn and nearly knocked off Arizona and Texas A&M in non-conference action. Depth is a weakness, but because of their well-roundedness, the Bulldogs likely won’t lift a leg on your pool sheet.
Wichita State Shockers (24-8, No. 11 seed, South region)
The Shockers’ at-large nomination is proof the Selection Committee has finally evolved. Instead of relying solely on antiquated RPI data, Joe Castiglione, the Committee chair, admitted other computer metrics greatly benefited Wichita’s standing in the eyes of the bracket builders. That, accompanied with Fred VanVleet’s early season injury, helped propel it into the ‘First Four.’ With doubt put to bed, it’s time for Gregg Marshall’s club, a high-ranked team in preseason polls, to deliver. Bank on that happening. No team plays stouter defense than Wichita. It ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency, yielding only 0.89 points per possession. Additionally, it slots inside the top-10 in four other defensive categories including two-point percentage and turnover rate. Scoring was difficult at times for WSU, but savvy veteran Ron Baker hit several clutch shots down the home stretch. If Shaq Morris, Markus McDuffie and Zach Brown establish a consistent offensive presence inside, the Shockers can hang with anyone. Back in the Cinderella role after playing favorites in recent tournaments, it could arrive to the Sweet Sixteen in a pumpkin carriage.
Chattanooga Mocs (29-5, No. 12 seed, East region)
Probably best known for producing HOF-shafted NFL wide receiver Terrell Owens, the Mocs may soon command attention in a different sport. They’re are a very experienced, D-oriented club that forces numerous turnovers (20.7%), challenges outside shots and takes advantage at the free-throw line. They also register high marks from three (36%) and generate appreciable second chances. Plus, they give up a lowly 0.99 points per possession. Their leader, Tre McLean, is a dual threat who defends ceaselessly, does damage at the free-throw line and nets over 37 percent from beyond the arc. Chattanooga definitely owns the tools needed to compete against an Indiana team getting too much credit for its defensive prowess. On the surface, the Hoosiers are a top-50 defensive team, but against tournament-level competition they routinely allowed 1.10-1.20 points per possession, well north of the 1.03 national average. Ultimately, for Chattanooga to spring the classic 12-over-5 upset, it must seal off the interior and extend to the perimeter. IU is an exceptional offensive rebounding and three-point shooting team. Ranking favorable, though, in both categories, it can certainly match the Big Ten rep pound-for-pound. Beware, the Mocs are sneaky snakes waiting in the grass.
Other possible Cinderellas: UNC-Wilmington, Michigan, Stony Brook, South Dakota St.
Fun facts/trends about the Big Dance:
• At least one No. 12 seed has advanced beyond the opening round 13 of the past 15 years. Three of the four reached the Round of 32. In the second round No. 12s are 20-25 (44.4%) all-time.
• A No. 16 has never defeated a No. 1, though Alonzo Mourning still wakes up in cold sweats about Princeton.
• Since 2000, No. 13 seeds have survived the opening round in just 21.7 percent of its attempts; No. 14s 9.1 percent.
• No. 15 seeds are 4-60 in opening-round games since 2000; 7-117 all-time.
• First Four winners have had considerable success. In the five years of their existence, at least one has reached the Round of 32 four times. Three of those five years one marched onto the Sweet Sixteen.
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