2016 March Madness bracket: 8 fast facts to help you win your tournament

2016 March Madness bracket: 8 fast facts to help you win your tournament – CBSSports.com

We all know the NCAA Tournament office pools won by the person who knows nothing about basketball. My then-4-year-old son once won a pool filled with journalists because he liked the names of schools. (Who knew that’s why I should have picked Ohio over Georgetown?)

Matchups are the most important consideration when filling out your bracket. But good luck figuring out this bracket after a regular season in which Associated Press Top-10 teams suffered their most defeats since the poll started in 1948. If ever there was a year to randomly make picks, this would be it.

But just in case you want over-analyze and get no work done this week, here are some trends to consider.

1. National champs play offense and defense. Twelve of the past 13 national champions finished in the top 20 of kenpom.com‘s offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The only school to buck that trend was 2014 Connecticut, which finished 39th in defensive efficiency. Six teams currently fit that criteria in 2016: Michigan State, North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, Villanova and Oklahoma.

Since 2003, 80 percent of the Final Four teams finished in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. These top-four seeds aren’t currently in the defensive top 20 this year: Miami, Oregon, Duke, Xavier, Kentucky, Utah and Iowa State. Eight of the past 10 champions ranked in the top four nationally in offensive efficiency. The four most efficient offenses this year: Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina and Iowa State.

2. Final Four coaching experience matters. Coaches with previous Final Four experience have won 14 of the past 16 championships, and 23 of the past 28. This year, five coaches of top-three seeds haven’t been to the Final Four: Dana Altman (Oregon), Billy Kennedy (Texas A&M), Chris Mack (Xavier), Tony Bennett (Virginia) and Larry Krystkowiak (Utah). In fact, none of those coaches have even reached the Elite Eight. Kevin Ollie beat the trend in 2014 with Connecticut’s surprising national title, but it’s rare for a coach to cut down the nets in his first time at the Final Four.

3. Avoid one-and-dones in conference tournaments. Since the field expanded to 64 in 1985, no team has ever won the title after losing its opening-round conference tournament game. Indiana, Iowa State and Iowa fit that mold this season. You probably weren’t going to pick any of them to win it all anyway. Iowa State is the only one of those with a Sweet 16 seed. In the past eight years, 12 of the 23 top-four seeds that lost its first conference tournament game didn’t make the Sweet 16.

4. No. 1 seed reigns supreme. It’s boring picking No. 1 seeds to win it all, but a 1 has won seven of the past nine championships and 12 of the past 17. That bodes well for Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia or Oregon. However, the No. 1 overall seed (this year it’s Kansas) has won the title only three times in the past 12 years.

It may be boring, but putting No 1 seeds like Michigan State in your Final Four would be wise. (USATSI)

5. Don’t be afraid to advance double-digit seeds. At least two double-digit seeds reached the Sweet 16 in 15 of the past 19 years, and at least one made it in 28 of the past 31 years. Look for veteran and talented teams that underperformed for some reason to potentially make a run.

The Wichita State-Vanderbilt winner in the First Four fits this bill. A First Four team has reached the Round of 32 all five years of the format and got to the Sweet 16 in three of the five years. Don’t reach too far. The lowest seed to reach the Final Four is a No. 11, accomplished by LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006 and VCU in 2011.

6. Pick at least 1 No. 12 seed to win. The 5 vs. 12 seed statistic feels as old as the 3-point line in college basketball. A 12 seed has defeated a 5 in 24 of the past 27 years. Last year produced a rare solar eclipse with 5 seeds winning all four games. Don’t expect that to happen again. This year’s No. 12 threats: South Dakota State (vs. Maryland); Yale (vs. Baylor); Chattanooga (vs. Indiana); and Little Rock (vs. Purdue). The Big Ten faces three chances to get knocked off by a 12 seed. Again, don’t go crazy and take No. 12 seeds too far. No. 12 seeds are 1-19 in their past 20 Sweet 16 games.

7. Be aware of surprise Final Four teams. It’s risky to take a lower seed really far, but lately, doing so could pay off in a big way. Seven teams seeded No. 7 or lower went to the Final Four in the past decade, including No. 7 seed Michigan State in 2015, and No. 7 Connecticut and No. 8 Kentucky in 2014. That happened only seven times from 1979 to 2005.

8. This just in: Talent matters. Twenty-three of the past 27 national champions had two or more future NBA first-round picks. In early mock drafts for this year, Michigan State, Kentucky, Duke, California are teams that appear to have multiple first-round picks on their roster.

Thirty-four of the past 36 champions had at least one McDonald’s high school All-American on their roster. Only 2002 Maryland and 2014 Connecticut didn’t have one. Top-four seeds this year without one: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Miami, Xavier, West Virginia, Virginia, Utah and Iowa State. Oregon, Duke, Kansas, Villanova, California, North Carolina, Kentucky and Michigan State have at least one McDonald’s All-American.

Bonus tip: Be willing to zig where other poolers zag. You win pools by getting the champion right and choosing at least one different team in the Final Four or championship game than most people have. Trendy picks keep you in the game longer, but they can do more harm than good without differentiating your bracket.

If in doubt, ask someone who knows nothing about basketball — like my now 9-year-old son. You’ll have just as good a chance as following conventional logic.