MLB season preview: Can Mariners contend with overhauled roster?

Editor’s Note: With the arrival of baseball season we’re previewing each MLB team, from worst to best. We’ll look at their key offseason moves, projected lineup, best and worst possible outcomes plus examine the team’s fantasy implications with the help of friends from Roto Arcade. Our daily series continues with No. 18: The Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners are a team in transition that also hopes to contend this season, which means their season could go any number of ways.

Expectations were very high just last season, as some experts pegged them as a World Series contender. Those expectations turned into a 76-win season and fourth place finish, meaning a change of direction was needed.

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Enter new general manager Jerry Dipoto. In just a few months, Dipoto has completely overhauled the coaching staff and changed over half of the underachieving 40-man roster left behind by Jack Zduriencik. His eyes are on the prize, but a complete turnaround in the AL West will be difficult.

Helping matters for Seattle will be the sturdy foundation that’s already in place. Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager make as strong a core as you’ll find in the American League. They were able to bring back Hisashi Iwakuma as well. If the new faces brought in by Dipoto can settle into their roles quickly, Seattle could stick around all season long. (Mark Townsend)

Key additions: Wade Miley, Nori Aoki, Adam Lind

Key subtractions: Mark Trumbo, Carson Smith, Logan Morrison

Jerry Dipoto wasted no time overhauling the team’s roster. Leonys Martin and a bunch of other players were brought in during the offseason. It’s possible the team will start opening day with five different players in their starting lineup. Aoki and Lind are flawed players, but both hold nice offensive value. Miley isn’t overly impressive, but he’s capable of being a mid-rotation starter who can eat innings. The loss of Carson Smith will hurt. He was an exceptional, under-the-radar reliever. The club will have to hope Steve Cishek can return to form to make up for losing Smith. (Chris Cwik)

Taijuan Walker: A tremendous spring did not carry over for Walker. He was roasted to start the season, posting a 7.33 ERA over his first nine starts. At that point, something briefly clicked, as he put up a 1.68 ERA over his next seven starts. Then, he went back to being average. Over his final 13 starts, he posted a 4.83 ERA.

[Previously: Is Mike Trout enough to make the Angels win?]

While those figures aren’t overly impressive, it’s easy to forget Walker was just 22 years old in 2015. He’s a former top prospect, and he’s still incredibly young. On top of that, his peripherals were pretty good. Walker struck out 22.2 percent of batters with a 5.7 percent walk rate. If he can cut down on his home runs, and learn to pitch more effectively out of the stretch, he’s a candidate for a breakout. (Cwik)

Lineup:
1. Nori Aoki, OF (.287/.353/.380, 42 R, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 14 SB)
2. Kyle Seager, 3B (.266/.328/.451, 85 R, 26 HR, 74 RBI)
3. Nelson Cruz, DH (.302/.369/.566, 90 R, 44 HR, 93 RBI)
4. Robinson Cano, 2B (.287/.334/.446, 82 R, 21 HR, 79 RBI)
5. Adam Lind, 1B (.277/.360/.460, 72 R, 20 HR, 87 RBI)
6. Seth Smith, OF (.248/.330/.443/, 54 R, 12 HR, 42 RBI)
7. Ketel Marte, SS (.283/.351/.402, 25 R, 2 HR, 17 RBI)
8. Leonys Martin, OF (.219/.264/.313, 26 R, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 14 SB)
9. Chris Iannetta, C (.188/.293/.335, 28 R, 10 HR, 34 RBI)

Rotation:
1. Felix Hernandez (18-9, 3.53 ERA, 201.2 IP, 191 K)
2. Taijuan Walker (11-8, 4.56 ERA, 169.2 IP, 157 K)
3. Wade Miley (11-11, 4.46 ERA, 193.2 IP, 147 K)
4. Hisashi Iwakuma (9-5, 3.54 ERA, 129.2 IP, 111 K)
5. James Paxton (3-4, 3.90 ERA, 67 IP, 56 K)

— compiled by Kyle Ringo

Best Case: The Mariners may be the most difficult team to read going into the season. They’re an unknown entity because of the huge roster turnover and the appointment of first-year manager Scott Servais. Based on talent alone, they could easily reach 87 wins like in 2014 and compete for a postseason spot. So basically, Jerry Dipoto has to hope that talent wins out. (Townsend)

Talent doesn’t win out, and the Mariners basically repeat their disappointing 76-win season in 2015. The range of possibilities is pretty wide for Seattle, but we might not know their true outlook until we’re several weeks into the season. (Townsend)

Can we expect a return-to-form campaign from Robinson Cano? The odds appear to favor it. Cano’s awful start to ’15 masked the fact that he was the No. 1 fantasy second basemen from July 1 through the rest of the season, hitting .330 with 17 home runs in that 82-game span. And Cano’s seven-year low RBI total in ’15 (79) should get a quick fix in the form of leadoff hitter Nori Aoki, who owns a career .353 OBP mark. That shines in contrast to the combined .307 OBP of Seattle leadoff hitters last season. Cano should be a top-50 pick and no worse than the No. 3 second basemen off the board in fantasy drafts.

[Elsewhere: Is Carlos Correa worth a top-five fantasy pick?]

Are there any M’s worth targeting late in drafts? Shortstop Ketel Marte has 25-30 SB upside, which would play nicely with his expected solid batting average contribution at a premium fantasy position. Consider him an on-par alternative to more expensive SS commodities like Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar.

Taijuan Walker dropped his BB/9 rate to 2.12 in ’15, good for 27th best among starters (min. 160 IP). Seattle’s former top prospect has K-per-IP stuff and more than 200 IP under his belt at the MLB level. Going just inside the top 150 of average Yahoo live drafts, he offers strike-it-rich potential in the mid-to-late rounds of fantasy drafts.

Steve Cishek, the 28th reliever drafted on average, will get the first shot at claiming Seattle’s closer role. Before struggling in that position for Miami to open ’15 (ultimately losing the job and then being traded to St. Louis), Cishek was one of the top closers in the league over the previous two seasons, combining for 73 saves and 2.73 ERA in that span. A pick just outside the top 200 overall is all it is costing the average fantasy owner to attain his services and find out if he can rediscover his stopper form – a 1.98 post-break ERA last season suggests he’s already started down that road. (Brandon Funston)

The best Twitter and Instagram handle in baseball belongs to Nelson Cruz aka @ncboomstick23. That handle alone is reason enough to follow the Mariners slugger. What you’ll get is plenty of personal pictures from on and off the field and he also likes to do Q&A’s with fans. Cruz stays true to his Dominican roots, with many tweets coming in both English and Spanish. He also returns home in the offseason and plays a big part in revitalizing the community where he grew up. (Israel Fehr)

In good times and in bad, Felix Hernandez gives Mariners fans something to look forward to every fifth day. Now entering his 12th season, Hernandez is more than just the face of the franchise, he’s a cultural icon who they simply refer to as King Felix.

His appeal goes well beyond the boundries of Seattle and the state of Washington though. When he’s really locked in, his starts are must-see events for baseball fans. That should continue in 2016, giving fans all over the world reason stay up late or get up early to watch him. (Townsend)