MLB season preview: Can the Rays offense match their pitching?
Editor’s Note: With the arrival of baseball season we’re previewing each MLB team, from worst to best. We’ll look at their key offseason moves, projected lineup, best and worst possible outcomes plus examine the team’s fantasy implications with the help of friends from Roto Arcade. Our daily series continues with No. 19: The Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays will never be the sexiest team. Their small-market status and penny-counting budget doesn’t accommodate superstars. But what the Tampa Bay front office has proven that it can do consistently is compete in one of the tightest divisions in baseball.
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The 2016 AL East — like it often is — is one of those divisions where any team could realistically finish in last place or first place. Most likely, the Rays are somewhere in the middle. But again, you never know.
The most important factor is the Rays’ offense, which was sixth-worst last season at scoring runs. Their pitchers, meanwhile, had the 11th best ERA in baseball.
These Rays have a mixture of familiar veterans (Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings, James Loney) and exciting youngsters (Chris Archer, Drew Smyly, Kevin Kiermaier). If everybody’s firing on all cylinders and if Matt Moore, who missed much of the past seasons after Tommy John surgery, returns to his old form, the Rays could be better than a lot of people expect. (Mike Oz)
Key additions: Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Brad Miller
Key subtractions: Jake McGee, Asdrubal Cabrera, John Jaso
Aside from bringing in Dickerson, the Rays additions were minor this offseason. That’s likely a result of the team’s limited payroll. Morrison may wind up being a platoon bat, but Miller was the more intriguing player to come over in the Mariners trade. A change of scenery might be a good thing for the former prospect. The loss of McGee will hurt, but the Rays have a solid stable of relievers to replace him. The strengths of the club, the rotation and the defense, were mostly unchanged, and that’s a positive thing. (Chris Cwik)
Logan Forsythe: The Rays struck gold with Forsythe last season. After hitting .235/.303/.343 over the first four years of his career, Forsythe turned in a .281/.359/.444 slash line. What changed? Some of it is likely his approach. Forsythe cut down on his strikeout rate, and feasted on fastballs.
[Previously: Is Mike Trout enough to make the Angels win?]
It’s also possible luck played a role, as his BABIP jumped to .323. The Rays are hoping it’s the latter, but it’s tough to trust his numbers after struggling so much early in his career. The club will get the definitive answer in 2016. (Cwik)
Lineup:
1. Brad Miller, SS (.258/.329/.402, 44 R, 11 HR, 46 RBI)
2. Kevin Kiermaier, OF (.263/.298/.420, 62 R, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 18 SB)
3. Evan Longoria, 3B (.270/.328/.435, 74 R, 21 HR, 73 RBI)
4. Logan Morrison, 1B (.225/.302/.383, 47 R, 17 HR, 54 RBI)
5. Logan Forsythe, 2B (.281/.359/.444, 69 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI)
6. Corey Dickerson, DH (.304/.333/.536, 30 R, 10 HR, 31 RBI)
7. Steven Souza Jr., OF (.225/.318/.399, 59 R, 16 HR, 40 RBI, 12 SB)
8. Desmond Jennings, OF (.268/.324/.340, 9 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI)
9. Rene Rivera, C (.178/.213/.275, 16 R, 5 HR, 26 RBI)
Rotation:
1. Chris Archer (12-13, 3.23 ERA, 212 IP, 252 K)
2. Drew Smyly (5-2, 3.11 ERA, 66.2 IP, 77 K)
3. Jake Odorizzi (9-9, 3.35 ERA, 169.1 IP, 150 K)
4. Erasmo Ramirez (11-6, 3.75 ERA, 163.1 IP, 126 K)
5. Matt Moore (3-4, 5.43 ERA, 63 IP, 46 K)
— compiled by Kyle Ringo and Mark Townsend
You’d assume a couple key injuries in the rotation would send the Rays plummeting down the standings, but they’ve always proved resilient in those situations. Until that changes, it’s difficult to imagine a true worst-case or disaster scenario for them. Obviously, they aren’t far from last place given the division’s depth, but they won’t bottom out or lose more than 90 games. (Townsend)
Will Corey Dickerson be able to maintain any roto relevance away from Coors Field? With the Rockies, Dickerson was a top 15 fantasy outfielder in ’14 and produced on a similar level last season but was limited to just 65 games because of injures. But now that he’s calling run-suppressing Tropicana Field, and not Coors Field, home, Dickerson’s expectations have been greatly tempered, as he’s going as just the No. 40 overall outfielder in average Yahoo live drafts. But even at that, the price might be too high. After all, he owns a .695 OPS and just 15 home runs in 143 career road games, compared to a 1.085 OPS and 24 home runs in 122 Mile High contests. He’s also had plantar fasciitis issues that remain a threat to his ’16 livelihood. Throw in a career platoon split against lefties (.677 OPS) that is even worse than his career road mark, and you start to wonder if Dickerson is worth the hassle, even at a mid-to-late round price.
[Elsewhere: Is Carlos Correa worth a top-five fantasy pick?]
Any Rays of hope in the late rounds? Drew Smyly is your man. The Rays lanky lefty starter (203.4 ADP) might be the best thing going after pick 200 in fantasy drafts. He was limited last season by shoulder issues, but his K/9 rate of 10.4 was top 30 among all pitchers (min. 60 IP). Over the past two seasons with the Rays, Smyly has delivered over 200 innings at just shy of a K per IP with solid ratios. The shoulder issues of the past could give cause for Tampa to limit his workload this season, but even with 150-160 innings of work, Smyly would play very nice at the backend of your roto rotation. (Brandon Funston)
Kevin Kiermaier is best known for his Gold Glove ability and highlight-reel catches. Second-place might just be his Twitter account, though, @KKiermaier39. The Rays center fielder lets us into his personal life where he mixes in the funny with the motivational. His sporting allegiances outside baseball lie with Purdue in NCAA sports, the Indianapolis Colts in the NFL and the Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL. So hit that follow button if you haven’t already and there’s a good chance Kiermaier puts a smile on your face this season, whether it’s with a great catch or a hilarious tweet. (Israel Fehr)
It’s gotta be Archer, their 27-year-old ace who had a 3.23 ERA last season in 212 innings. It was a step forward for Archer, who has now firmly established himself as Tampa Bay’s replacement for David Price.
That’s true off the field too, where Archer is extremely well spoken. He’s interesting and intelligent, as we saw during his turn as a broadcaster during the 2015 postseason. He continues to prove it on a regular basis too.
Archer is worth watching — on and off the field. (Mike Oz)
PREVIOUSLY IN THIS SERIES:
#30: Philadelphia Phillies | #29: Atlanta Braves | #28: Milwaukee Brewers | #27: Colorado Rockies | #26: Cincinnati Reds | #25: San Diego Padres | #24: Oakland A’s | #23: Miami Marlins | #22: Baltimore Orioles | #21: Twins | #20: Angels
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Mike Oz is the editor of Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @MikeOz
