Weekly Picks: PL Predictions GW 30
The Truth about Man City…
There is a myth that Man City are inconsistent. And that it has/ will cost them the PL title this season. Not true.
The fact is, City have actually been one of the most consistent performers in the PL this season. They are just not as good as we (or they) think there are.
Remarkably, City have not won a SINGLE match home or away v a team in the Top Eight. Not one. W0 D3 L8
Versus ninth place down it’s a different story. W15 D2 L0
And THAT brothers and sisters, is what has/ will cost them the PL title.
We start with their next win at Norwich…
Saturday Fixtures:
12.45pm Norwich v Man City
If Man City are going to win the PL (they’re not) they probably need to win eight of their last ten (they won’t). Starting with a big win here (they might). They are very effective against the lower strata of the division, winning 15 of their 17 matches v teams placed 9th and below. Norwich were unlucky to lose to a late penalty at City in October but were in far better shape then than now. This looks another nail in their coffin.
Score Prediction: A stroll for City. 0-3
MVP: Sergio Aguero might only get an hour but it should be enough.
3pm Bournemouth v Swansea
Both teams have enjoyed good spells at a good time – seven points from three for Bournemouth, six and a narrow defeat at Tottenham for Swansea in the last week or so have established a cushion of safety between them and the relegation pack. A win for either here would probably secure PL survival, but even a defeat won’t have anybody panicking. Should be a fairly relaxed run-in.
Score Prediction: A draw will suit both teams. 2-2
MVP: Benik Afobe looks a gamble that paid off.
3pm Stoke v Southampton
A bit of a mid-table six-pointer. Just two points separates Stoke in eighth and Southampton in ninth. With Man United and Liverpool immediately above it’s unlikely either will go higher before the end of the season, but both are punching their weight. Stoke are now four unbeaten (W3 D1) after derailing in January. Southampton on the other hand have gone west again, after their imperious six match rescued their season. It’s Liverpool and Leicester next so they could do with taking something here.
Score Prediction: But I don’t think they will. 1-0
MVP: Jack Butland is the man at home – and could further benefit from the return of Ryan Shawcross.
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Sunday Fixture:
4pm Aston Villa v Tottenham
Tottenham could probably do with a trip to Villa right now, having gone three without a win. No shame in losing at West Ham, or drawing at home to Arsenal. And big hitters were left out at Dortmund. BUT whatever the justifications, the accumulative effect won’t do them any favours. Nothing a good win and a few goals won’t sort out though. Villa look to have finally buckled, conceding 15 in their last four.
Score Prediction: This should be another three. 0-3
MVP: Come on Harry Kane.
Monday Fixture:
8pm Leicester v Newcastle
Oh dear. I know it’s never as simple as it appears. But this does appear simple. Leicester aren’t playing with the freedom that took them to the top of the PL, but have developed a grit that will keep them there. After all it is the 1-0s v Norwich and Watford that get you over the line. Alan Shearer made as much sense as he has ever made – not a big claim, I know – calling Newcastle a ‘mess from top to bottom’. He could have added front to back.
Score Prediction: Perhaps a last look at Leicester in full flight. 3-0
MVP: Jamie Vardy is due one.
That’s how it looks from here…
Until next time.
Matt Nesbitt’s short, unspectacular but joyful playing career has given way to a much longer, more successful but immeasurably more rubbish one writing about football and providing betting advice. Email: Matt Nesbitt
